Brewers vs. Reds: Game 1, prediction, odds, injuries and picks - April 3, MLB 2025
The Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers were each expected to contribute to the NL Central pennant chase entering the regular season. However, after six games played, neither squad looks ready to compete with the Chicago Cubs or St. Louis Cardinals for bragging rights.
While still very early, this extended four-game series between the division rivals will serve as a huge litmus test, with the teams only scheduled to meet nine more times following Sunday's finale. Nestor Cortes - fresh off one of the worst starts of his career - enters this matchup as the MLB odds favorite over Nick Lodolo to get the Brew Crew back into the win column.
Brewers vs. Reds recent form and records
The Reds enter tonight's series opener 2-4 and $221 in the red for $100-per-bet MLB bettors after failing to win either of their first two home series against the San Francisco Giants or Texas Rangers. Embarrassingly, Elly De La Cruz and his mates enter this tilt on the short end of back-to-back 1-0 shutout losses, which have seen the offense go scoreless in 19 consecutive innings.
Even after walking the Royals off on Wednesday in extras, there wasn't much to write home about for Milwaukee with the reigning division champs getting swept in New York by the Yankees.
Pat Murphy's troops, however, bounced back with a series win against the Royals, taking the final two games after getting clobbered 11-1 in the opener. It's resulted in a -$237 return on investment for their wagering supporters, with the under paying out in their only two wins.
Injuries
Cincinnati
- Tyler Stephenson C 10 Day IL - Undisclosed
- Austin Hays LF 10 Day IL - Calf
- Alexis Diaz RP 15 Day IL - Undisclosed
- Andrew Abbott SP 15 Day IL - Undisclosed
- Rhett Lowder SP 15 Day IL - Undisclosed
- Julian Aguiar SP 60 Day IL - Elbow
- Brandon Williamson SP 60 Day IL - Undisclosed
Milwaukee
- Blake Perkins CF 10 Day IL - Shin
- Aaron Civale SP 15 Day IL - Hamstring
- Brandon Woodruff SP 15 Day IL - Shoulder
- Nick Mears RP 15 Day IL - Illness
- Aaron Ashby SP 15 Day IL - Oblique
- Tobias Myers SP 15 Day IL - Oblique
- DL Hall SP 60 Day IL - Lat
- Robert Gasser SP 60 Day IL - Elbow
Starting Pitchers
Nick Lodolo (1-0, 3.00 ERA in 2025)
- Lodolo went 5-2 with a 3.56 ERA and 71:16 K/BB ratio over 60.2 IP on the road last year
- Lodolo is 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA and 25:8 K/BB ratio in 24.0 IP thrown against the Brewers
- Lodolo gave up 3 hits and 3 ER in 5.1 IP with 4 K and 3 BB against Milwaukee in 2024
Nestor Cortes (0-1, 36.00 ERA in 2025)
- Cortes went 5-5 with a 3.11 ERA and 83:14 K/BB ratio over 89.2 IP at home last year (NYY)
- Cortes is 0-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 4:1 K/BB ratio in 7.0 IP thrown against the Reds
- Cortes gave up 4 hits and 1 ER in 7.0 IP with 4 K and 1 BB against Cincinnati in 2022
Must-Watch Hitters
Cincinnati
Matt McLain found himself in a heater before the Reds were dominated by the Rangers' pitching staff in the final two games. The infielder had hit safely in three straight games and went yard three times. He's +550 to hit a home run at DK for the series opener, and +225 to plate at least one RBI. It's been rare to this point, but when the Reds' offense has produced, McLain has been one of the catalysts.
Milwaukee
Jackson Chourio introduced himself to MLB prop bettors with a memorable rookie campaign. The outfielder has picked right back up where he left off, slashing .286/.286/.786 over 28 at-bats with one home run and four RBIs.
While yet to hit safely in his prior three appearances against Lodolo, he's done so in five straight and will step into the box off a three-hit performance that saw him reach the cheap seats for the first time.
Brewers vs. Reds Betting Odds
Brewers vs. Reds expert picks and game prediction
This is a tough game to handicap, with the Reds' offense recently disappearing and Nestor Cortes getting peppered by his former team in his first start for the Brewers. However, the lone constant has been Nick Lodolo, who was rock-solid in his first start against a white-hot Giants team.
While Miller Park has been a nightmare venue for Cincy - they've won just three of their last 10 games there - they hold the advantage in both the starting pitching matchup, along with the bullpen.
Brewers vs. Reds Prediction: Cincinnati Wins 5-3