MLB Fantasy Rankings 2024: 5 outfielders to avoid in drafts ahead of new season
MLB fantasy baseball leagues have been re-activated, allowing managers more than two months to prepare for their upcoming drafts. Even though Opening Day is slated for March 28, experienced managers know that there is no such thing as too much time to prepare for the draft season.
Selecting the correct players in MLB fantasy baseball drafts is one of the keys to success; that's a given. What some inexperienced managers may not know is the importance of knowing which players not to draft. Picking a player at an inflated value or a player trending downward can be the difference between winning and losing in MLB fantasy leagues.
A look at five outfielders managers may want to avoid in MLB fantasy drafts
#1 - Jarred Kelenic
The Atlanta Braves are expected to have one of the best lineups in the MLB in 2024, which makes drafting nearly any member of the squad tempting. Enter Jarred Kelenic, who the Braves acquired this offseason.
Although Kelenic joins one of the top teams in baseball, he has never really lived up to the hype surrounding him as a prospect. It may be best to leave Kelenic on the board.
#2 - Cody Bellinger
Cody Bellinger was incredible last season for the Chicago Cubs. The former NL MVP enjoyed one of the best seasons of his career, posting a .307 batting average with 26 home runs and 97 RBIs.
"The Yankees are smart if they chose Juan Soto over Cody Bellinger. Bellinger’s underlying stats last season and past history should give anyone pause." - @jamfan40
Even though he was a true league-winning talent last year, his underlying numbers suggest that he may be in store for a decline in production in 2024. His expected batting average from last year was .268, which suggests that Cody Bellinger may have had some luck on his side and may not be able to repeat this level of production in 2024.
#3 - Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. is electric when he is on the field for the Miami Marlins. However, that appears to be a big ask, as the Bahamian All-Star has struggled to remain healthy for the course of an entire season.
Chisholm Jr. can provide MLB fantasy managers with top-tier speed while also adding some home runs, yet his upside might not be worth the constant risk of injury.
#4 - TJ Friedl
The Cincinnati Reds are one of the trending teams heading into the 2024 MLB fantasy season. The young core is exciting and has the potential to rack up stats this upcoming campaign. Managers may need to proceed with caution when it comes to outfielder TJ Friedl, given his dismal underlying stats from last year.
"TJ Friedl's .353 vs .289 wOBA to xwOBA difference was the biggest overperformance of expected wOBA in the statcast era (min. 500 PA) #Bunting" - @sandwich_pick
Although Friedl is coming off the best season of his career, which saw him rack up 18 home runs, 66 RBIs, and 27 stolen bases, it may be difficult for him to repeat those numbers. Friedl finished 2023 with a .279 batting average, yet his expected number, according to Statcast, was .240. Draft with caution.
#5 - Daulton Varsho
After a breakout season in 2022, Daulton Varsho was a disappointment for MLB fantasy owners during his first year with the Toronto Blue Jays. Varsho saw his numbers drop across the board.
Although he will be a part of the strong Blue Jays lineup, he should continue to find himself batting near the bottom of the order, which will hurt his ceiling.