"How do you put a value on a unicorn?" - Executives find it impossible to predict Shohei Ohtani's contract
What if Babe Ruth had been a free agent?
How many teams would have been in the bidding for the Bambino? How big would his contract have been?
We'll never know, of course. The legendary slugger's career ended in 1935 and players were not granted free agency until the 1976 season.
Ruth was also an outstanding pitcher before becoming a full-time outfielder. He was considered the greatest two-way player in baseball history until Shohei Ohtani came along.
Now, Ohtani is unquestionably the most intriguing figure of Major League Baseball’s offseason.
The modern-day Ruth is a free agent after three of the greatest seasons in baseball history while playing for the Los Angeles Angels. Teams can begin negotiating with free agents at 5 p.m. ET Monday and Ohtani should have no shortage of suitors while almost certainly landing the largest contract in the game’s history.
Just how much money will Ohtani wind up getting?
"How do you put a value on a unicorn?" an executive from an MLB team said. "There's never been another free agent like him, so who do you compare him to? He's a Hall of Fame caliber hitter and a Hall of Fame caliber pitcher. How much is that worth? There are no comparables, so who knows?."
The executive and others quoted in this story were granted anonymity because they were not authorized by their teams to speak publicly.
With MLB’s General Managers meetings starting Tuesday in Scottsdale, Ariz., let’s look at the top five free agents, what teams are likely to bid on them and where they will most likely land.
Shohei Ohtani
Throwing a big wrinkle into Ohtani’s situation is that he underwent elbow surgery in September and will not be able to pitch again until 2025. However, doctors expect Ohtani to be able to be a designated hitter by the time the 2024 season opens.
Shohei Ohtani is the overwhelming favorite to win his second American League MVP award in three years. He hit .304/.412/.654 with an AL-leading 44 home runs and 20 stolen bases in 135 games while posting a 10-5 record as a pitcher with a 3.14 ERA and 167 strikeouts in 132 innings.
Ohtani is a private person and rarely avails himself to the media, so it is hard to get a read on what he will do. However, the Angels privately believe they have a chance to re-sign him because of his comfort level with an organization that has let him call the shots on how to be utilized as a pitcher and hitter.
The Los Angeles Angels have not had a winning record in any of Ohtani’s six seasons, though, prompting speculation that he wants to go to an organization ready to win. In addition to the Angels, among other teams likely to be bidding figure to be the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers.
Prediction: Ohtani decides to stay in Southern California and sign with the Dodgers for 10 years and $510 million.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Yamamoto will make the jump to the major leagues from Nippon Professional in his native Japan.
The 25-year-old set a Japan Series record when he had 14 strikeouts for the Orix Buffaloes on Saturday night. In the regular season, he went 16-6 with a minuscule 1.21 ERA and 169 strikeouts in 164 innings.
“He’s far and away the best pitcher in Japan right now and he might be the best pitcher ever to come over here from NPB,” an executive said. “He has great stuff with three plus pitches. He’s only 5-foot-10 and that raises a red flag, but he’s never had any arm problems and has been a workhorse.”
Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been linked to various teams including the Dodgers, Mets, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies.
Prediction: Yamamoto follows countryman Kodai Senga and signs a seven-year, $190-million contract with the Mets.
Aaron Nola
Nola hits the open market after spending his entire nine-year career with the Phillies. The two sides had talked about a contract extension during spring training but couldn’t reach an agreement.
The right-hander did not have a good regular season as his record was 12-9 with a 4.46 ERA in 32 starts and he gave up 32 home runs in 193 2/3 innings. However, Nola had a strong postseason after making a mechanical adjustment in September, going 3-1 with a 2.35 ERA in four starts.
One of Aaron Nola’s best attributes is his durability. He has made at least 30 starts and pitched at least 180 innings in each of the last five full seasons.
“He’s going to get dinged for the way he pitched in the regular season because some teams think he is in the decline phase of career,” an executive said of the 30-year-old Nola. “He’s not going to get a mega contract, but he’ll still get plenty of interest.”
The Phillies will again try to sign Nola but figure to get competition from the St. Louis Cardinals, Giants, Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles.
Prediction: Nola loves Philadelphia, and the Phillies love him, so a deal is there to be made for, say, five years and $125 million.
Blake Snell
The left-hander is likely to win the National League Cy Young Award after posting a league-leading 2.25 ERA for the San Diego Padres. He also had a 14-9 record in 32 starts to go with 234 strikeouts in 180 innings.
It would be Snell’s second Cy Young as he also won it in the AL in 2018 with the Tampa Bay Rays.
While Blake Snell is a premier pitcher, he also has his drawbacks. He had 99 walks this season and he has pitched as many as 130 innings in just two of his eight seasons.
“He’s really good when he’s right and somebody is going to overpay for him like he’s a No. 1 starter,” an executive said. “He’s not a No. 1, though, because he doesn’t give you enough innings. I’d be careful before committing long-term.”
Snell is said to be at the top of the Cardinals’ wish list and the Dodgers, Red Sox, Yankees and Giants also figuring to be bidders.
Prediction: The Giants have unsuccessfully tried to make a splash the last two winters but will this time by signing Snell to a five-year, $150-million deal.
Cody Bellinger
No one improved their stock more in 2023 than Bellinger, who signed with the Chicago Cubs last winter after being cut loose by the Dodgers.
The center fielder/first baseman hit .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs and 20 stolen bases in 130 games. That came after he hit .193 combined in the previous two seasons after injuring his shoulder in the 2020 postseason.
Cody Bellinger was the NL MVP in 2019.
“I really started to wonder if he’d ever be a good player again,” an executive said. “It was pretty amazing to see what he did last year after being so bad for so long. He’s still just 28 years old and is a left-handed hitter with power so he has set himself up for a nice payday.”
The Cubs have great interest in re-signing Bellinger and will likely get competition from the Giants, Yankees, Angels and Mariners.
Prediction: The Yankees need to do something after finishing 25th in MLB in runs scored this year, prompting them to sign Bellinger for six years and $155 million.