"If he lands in a miracle market like Juan Soto" - Blue Jays insider skeptical of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. earning $170,000,000 more than Bryce Harper
Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will probably take the spotlight in the 2025 offseason, much like Juan Soto did in 2024. Soto, who made a World Series trip with the New York Yankees, was rewarded with a record 15-year, $765 contract with the New York Mets.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who will be a free agent at age 26 after the 2025 season, will eye something similar. However, Blue Jays insider Arden Zwelling is unsure if Vlad will earn significantly more than the current best deal for the first baseman, which is Bryce Harper's 13-year $330 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies.
"Unless somebody is going to be completely fiscally irresponsible, the highest contract we've seen for a first baseman is Bryce Harper’s $330 million over 10 years," Zwelling said on the JD Bunkis Podcast (18:15).
"Are you telling me someone is going to give Vlad $170 million more? Okay, good for him if he can get that. I’d be stoked for him, but the odds are slim."
He also added that Juan Soto got a record deal because the five richest clubs in baseball - Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox and Blue Jays - were going all-out in a bidding war for him. The same may not be the case for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., though.
"The only way it happens is if he lands in a miracle market like Juan Soto had," Zwelling added. "Soto had five of the richest owners in baseball—Edward Rogers, Hal Steinbrenner, Steve Cohen, John Henry—all bidding on him.
"Him being his age, being as good as he is, better than Vlad, and then Steve Cohen just deciding, 'I’m going to sign a completely irresponsible deal. I don’t care if I lose value on this deal. I’m driven by ego in this.' That was a unicorn market. We haven’t really seen anything like that before."
Arden Zwelling says next CBA could impact Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s market in 2025
The current CBA deal between MLB and the MLB Players Association expires in Dec. 2026. Zwelling pointed out that n the years leading up to the CBA deal, owners used to get saturated in terms of free agency deals, resulting in below-market offers.
"Remember what happened in the two offseasons prior to the last CBA negotiations? All of a sudden, every owner was saying, 'Whoa, we’ve got to tighten our belts here. It’s just so hard to make money running a baseball team," Zwelling said.
While Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has age and value by his side, market conditions could heavily determine the contract value he gets signed for.