Mets vs. Brewers: NL Wild Card Series Game 1 predictions, odds and picks — Oct 1, MLB 2024
Thanks to a thrilling win on Monday in a rain-induced doubleheader, the New York Mets made it into the National League playoffs. Their reward is a Wild Card Series matchup on Tuesday with the Milwaukee Brewers, who sold assets in the offseason, lost their manager and managed to win their division with ease.
The Brewers lost Craig Counsell and traded Corbin Burnes, but they still had enough to handily beat the other NL Central teams. They were in contention for a first-round bye for a while, too. Either way, they're now tasked with taking down the Mets, who, unfortunately for their fans, played two games just yesterday.
Mets vs. Brewers Recent records and form
The Milwaukee Brewers sort of stumbled into the playoffs. A loss in their final matchup resulted in a 5-5 stretch in their final 10 matchups. Those didn't matter much, since they had the division and the third seed locked in.
The Mets needed to win one game yesterday to get in, and they did. They were also 5-5 in their last 10, though, so neither team in this matchup is particularly red-hot right now. Overall, the Mets finished 89-73.
Players to watch
Starting pitchers
Luis Severino (11-7, 3.91 ERA, 161 SO) vs. Freddy Peralta (11-9, 3.68 ERA, 200 SO)
Luis Severino has a 1.24 WHIP and 161 strikeouts in 182 innings.
Last Start: Four innings, seven hits, four earned runs, one walk and five strikeouts.
Career vs. Brewers: 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 21 strikeouts in three appearances.
Meanwhile, Freddy Peralta has a 1.21 WHIP and 200 strikeouts in 173.2 innings.
Last Start: 5.1 innings, two hits, two earned runs, two walks and seven strikeouts.
Career vs. Mets: 3-0 with a 2.60 ERA and 20 strikeouts in three appearances.
Must-watch hitters
Mets
Francisco Lindor returned from the IL with a bang, hitting two home runs in his final few outings of the season. He also had six hits and five RBI during the final four games.
Over the last six matchups, Jose Iglesias is 8/24. He has one walk, one RBI and one run scored during that time.
Brewers
Jackson Chourio finished with 26 hits in 26 games played during September. He had 14 runs, seven doubles, two triples, four home runs, 16 RBI and 11 walks during that time.
Brice Turang finished with 24 hits in his final 25 games. In those outings, he had five doubles, six RBI and six walks.
Mets vs. Brewers Baseball Betting Odds
Mets vs. Brewers Expert Predictions
The Brewers have the pitching advantage in this contest, but the Mets arguably have the deeper lineup. New York also has a little bit of a "team of destiny" feel to it, though that doesn't always matter to the actual game itself.
The Brewers are at home with their ace on the mound, and that should be enough to get them through in what should be a close matchup.
Run Spread: -1.5
Total Runs: Over 7.5
Prediction: Brewers 5, Mets 4