Who had the best half in MLB? Who gets dealt at the deadline? Who stays pat? A Q&A with Ken Rosenthal (Exclusive)
The first half of the Major League Baseball season is over. There’s roughly a week remaining before baseball’s trade deadline closes on Tuesday, July 30, at 6 p.m. Eastern.
This is the perfect time to look backward and forward – at what has happened to shape the 2024 pennant races and what will make the biggest impact in the next two months to determine postseason positions.
Who has been the best so far in 2024? Who will be switching uniforms before this month ends? What team needs to make aggressive moves? What team shouldn’t?
Ken Rosenthal, national baseball reporter for Fox Sports, The Athletic and the "Foul Territory" podcast, agreed to a Q&A to discuss what we’ve seen and what we might see as this season heads down the stretch.
Editor’s note: The following has been edited and condensed.
Who are your first-half American League and National League MVPs?
Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. For the AL, I strongly considered Gunnar Henderson. But Judge, while not playing shortstop, is playing an up-the-middle position and playing it adequately. And, my gosh, offensively, he’s been a complete wrecking ball. So, it’s him.
Ohtani? Yes, I’m fully aware he would be the first, exclusive DH to ever win this award, but at this point he deserves it. It helps his case that Mookie (Betts) got hurt.
What about AL and NL Cy Young first-half winners?
AL Cy Young is really close. Tarik Skubal, Corbin Burnes, Seth Lugo. I would lean to Skubal, but it kind of changes by the week. Skubal, to me, has just been a cut above those guys, but it’s so close. It’s actually one of those things I don’t even want to assess at this point because it’s going to change and, by the end of the year, we’ll have a fuller picture.
For NL Cy Young, Reynaldo López, by far and away, has the best ERA. But I have a hard time believing he’s going to finish the season with the best ERA. Then you’ve got all the Phillies: Zack Wheeler and Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez. It’ll be really interesting to see how this all plays out. My guess, in the end, is Wheeler. But we’ll see.
Who were the biggest surprise teams to you in the first half? Give me one good surprise and one bad surprise.
I’ll give you two for the biggest positive surprise: Milwaukee and Cleveland. Milwaukee because they lost (manager) Craig Counsell, they traded (pitcher Corbin) Burnes, they don’t have (pitcher) Brandon Woodruff back (in 2024) and (closer) Devin Williams is hurt. And Cleveland, because they were a horrible offensive team last year, 27th in runs, and now they’ve transformed their offense under a new manager. It’s been really impressive. Those two both have been.
Now, the biggest surprise in a bad way? I’ll go with the Texas Rangers. They’re the defending World Series champions, and they’re below .500. They have had injuries, I know. And (third baseman) Josh Jung was a big one for them. But everyone thought they would hit, and they have not hit. That’s been their problem. The pitching has been OK. Maybe they will play better, but no one expected the defending World Champions to play like this.
Of the so-called "bubble teams" currently on the fringes of the playoff race, which team do you think should aggressively sell, and which one is best situated to buy?
The Blue Jays to sell. They’re not really a bubble team, but the reason I will list them here is because I don’t think they’re going to sell enough. My guess is they just sell off their potential free agents when they should be dealing (first baseman) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and (shortstop) Bo Bichette, if he had stayed healthy, and even some of their starting pitchers under contract. It has not worked. Period. And they need to acknowledge that. And I don’t expect that they will.
As for a bubble team that should buy, how about the Pittsburgh Pirates? Are they gonna win the World Series this year? No. But they have Paul Skenes; they had Jared Jones when he was healthy. They have some positive momentum. How about trying to sustain it for once rather than mess around on the edges and just sit and stall? I’d like to see them do some moves to get controllable pieces that they can use going forward. They don’t have to be pure "buy" moves that are like, "Oh, my God, they are going to make the playoffs now because of this guy." But make some moves that can help you for now and hopefully in the future.
Which two teams do you think have the most to lose if they don’t pull triggers at the deadline?
Let’s go Orioles and Dodgers. Both teams badly need starting pitching. In the Orioles’ case, they need a controllable starter and, honestly, both teams need bullpen help as well. In the Dodgers’ case, because of what they spent, and in the Orioles’ case, because of the prospect capital they have amassed over the years and the position they are in. They both clearly need to do something creative now. The problem for every team is there might not be enough good players to go around this year. And that’s a legitimate concern.
Who will be the most aggressive deadline team? Will there be the annual Padres push?
The Padres are always a default answer (laughs), and they indeed might be that again. But the Yankees have more holes than I would have imagined at the start of the season, and they need to do multiple things, so I would expect them to be aggressive. The most aggressive? That’s hard to say. Maybe the Orioles will be the most aggressive. But the Yankees need help at second base, third base, bullpen and maybe even a starter. They need to address all of that.
Who is the biggest name that gets traded?
(Chicago White Sox starter) Garrett Crochet, simply because the demand for starters is so intense that it seems to me, while the White Sox are gonna want more than they should get for a guy who might not start for the rest of the season, he’s the guy that teams are going to covet. I could say (Oakland closer) Mason Miller. I still think there’s a decent chance he gets moved, but I’ll go with Crochet.
Who is the biggest name that doesn’t get traded?
Guererro Jr. Or (New York Mets first baseman) Pete Alonso. In the Blue Jays’ case, it’s because, in my opinion, they don’t have the guts to do it, and in the Mets’ case, they are in playoff contention, and they could not justify it. Alonso’s not even really performing all that well, even though he was an All-Star.
If you are the Orioles, do you deal top prospect Jackson Holliday for a starting pitcher?
No. The reason I will say that is because none of the starting pitchers who are available are good enough for a Jackson Holliday trade. Even Tarik Skubal. Skubal has two-and-a-half years of control versus six years of Jackson Holliday, who might be an All-Star position player. Skubal also has health concerns, like any pitcher. There’s no question he’d be an upgrade to the rotation in Baltimore, but, I’m sorry, I ride Jackson Holliday as my starting second baseman going forward.
If you are the Tigers, do you trade Skubal for a prospect package?
Actually, no. Detroit is not a small market. It’s kind of a mid-market and they are supposedly building for something. If you are doing that, then you have to keep a guy that might win the Cy Young. If you don’t keep him, if you trade him, what do you say to your fans? And, really, what are you doing? So, I would say they should not trade him and keep going forward.
Last prediction: Who are your World Series teams right now?
My comment is always the same with this. Tell me who is getting traded, tell me who is getting hurt, and I’ll predict the World Series every time. That said, I’m going to go Phillies and Orioles, a rematch of 1983. I don’t know how the Orioles are going to get there with their pitching, but let’s have some fun with it.