“You watch this stuff and there’s this fear or panic, like what’s going on?” - MLB executive says it might be time to sound the alarm on pitchers struggling after shortened Spring Training
We've heard about MLB's baseballs being dead this season. We've talked about Camden Yards' left field wall being extended by 30 feet to decrease home run numbers in Baltimore. We've talked about the changes needed to increase offense around the league. The balls are too heavy. But three years ago, they were too light. And a couple years ago, the baseball seams were weird and gave pitchers abnormal blister problems.
But nobody's talking about one the MLB's biggest issues right now, and it's torturing starting pitchers. They waited around until mid-March for the MLB and the MLB Players Association to reach a collective bargaining agreement.
Commissioner Rob Manfred announced an April 7 opening day. Pitchers had to get ready for the regular season in three weeks, but that was not nearly enough time.
Asked about if he was concerned about his velocity being down a few ticks, Robbie Ray replied:
"No. I mean, my last start was in 30 degrees with 40 mile per hour winds. And today, was, well you saw it today, so I'm not really concerned with it.
"Asked about if he was concerned about his velocity being down a few ticks, Robbie Ray replied: 'No. I mean, my last start was in 30 degrees with 40 mile per hour winds. And today, was, well you saw it today, so I'm not really concerned with it.'" - @Ryan Divish
By the time day one rolls around, pitchers should be near or arrived at maximum velocity and stamina. They should've already had over a month to build it up over spring training. This season, many starting pitchers have reached their top strength. But many others are still pushing themselves to throw quality starts when they're only comfortable throwing 70 to 80 pitches.
MLB executive says it might be time to sound the alarm on pitchers struggling after shortened Spring Training
There are plenty of examples around the league, but two of the best are Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Shane Bieber and Seattle Mariners pitcher Robbie Ray. They've both been down on velocity this season.
Shane Bieber average fastball velocity:
2018: 93
2019: 93.1
2020: 94.1
2021: 92.8
2022: 90.8
Hasn't hit 91 with a fastball yet today.
"Shane Bieber average fastball velocity: 2018: 93 2019: 93.1 2020: 94.1 2021: 92.8 2022: 90.8 Hasn't hit 91 with a fastball yet today." - @Adam Burke
As Jayson Stark of "The Athletic" points out, Bieber's average velocity in 2021 was 93 MPH. So far this season, it's down to 91.4 MPH. Ray's velocity is down from 94.8 MPH to 93.1. What could be wrong with these former All-Star pitchers?
"All teams worry about health," said Jayson Stark. "That’s true in every spring, every season. But especially this year. And not only because the spring was so short, but also because teams spent three months wondering whether their players were working out or working on their pitching wedge. The funny thing is, the injury info we’ve seen so far is mostly just confusing."
Stark interviewed an unnamed MLB executive about the dip in velocity. The executive said there's more here than what meets the eye, but it's still frightening that pitchers like Bieber and Ray are struggling this badly.
“You watch this stuff,” the executive said, “and there’s this fear or panic, like what’s going on? I think it’s clear now we’ve seen unusual velocity patterns, because different guys handled the lockout time differently and the spring training time differently. So it’s been really hard to know what to make of players early.”
It's tough to know whether these pitchers are just adjusting to their normal velocities after a long winter and short spring, or if they're suffering from injury. Or, perhaps, both. Bieber and Ray are their squads' aces. They could've been forced into long outings before their arms were ready for heavy throwing volume and are now injured as a consequence.
Only time will tell for certain.