Today’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets: Top 5 picks including Fernando Tatis Jr., Aaron Judge and more for April 21, 2025
On Monday, Apr. 21, 2025, there will only be eight games in Major League Baseball, providing fans and bettors with a smaller but exciting lineup to follow. With fewer games, there's more room for deeper analyses of individual batting and pitching trends, as well as high-pressure home run scenarios. These circumstances create an ideal opportunity to identify valuable picks in the home run proposition market.
Everyone will be paying attention to the Yankees vs. Guardians game, especially after Aaron Judge nearly homered in his last game before a foul call and ejection of manager Aaron Boone became the headline. With exciting matchups like Fernando Tatis Jr. facing Jack Flaherty and several hitters currently on hot streaks, today’s condensed schedule still offers significant home run potential.
1. Rafael Devers (+380) – Boston Red Sox
Rafael Devers is a completely different hitter at home in 2025, boasting a massive 1.126 OPS, 2 home runs, 10 RBIs and a .368 average in 10 games. He's managed only a .104 average and .391 OPS on the road, which shows just how much Fenway Park boosts his production. He returns home today to face the White Sox in game 4, who possess one of the worst pitching staffs in the league. With his explosive home splits, Devers is poised for a massive night and is one of the most attractive home run prop bets on the board.
2. Aaron Judge (+200) – New York Yankees
Aaron Judge is on fire to begin 2025, batting .390 with 7 home runs, 25 RBIs and 21 runs scored. In last night's game, he narrowly missed adding another homer when he had a towering blast down the left-field line ruled foul despite a replay review of a call that sparked fan outrage. With that wind in his sails and elite-level form at the plate, Judge is an elite-level option to homer today.
3. Marcell Ozuna (+300) – Atlanta Braves
Marcell Ozuna has been a force at home this season, slugging 719 with a 1.163 OPS, 3 home runs and a .375 batting average over 10 home games. While his overall 2025 line is a solid 305 with 4 home runs and 9 RBIs, he's more explosive in Atlanta. With the Cardinals' vulnerable pitching staff taking the mound tonight, Ozuna's Truist Park pop makes him a good home run prop bet.
4. Kerry Carpenter (+450) – Detroit Tigers
Kerry Carpenter has been absolutely on fire lately, posting a .469 average with a 1.110 OPS in his last 9 games played (April 12–20) with 15 hits in 32 at-bats. During this period, he's homered and driven in 2 runs with elite contact ability. It hasn't mattered where he is either at home or away he's been locked in posting a .471 average at home and a .467 away. With that kind of form and consistent power upside, Carpenter is a sneaky but deadly home run pick today.
5. Fernando Tatis Jr. (+260) – San Diego Padres
Fernando Tatis Jr. is on fire, hitting 7 homers with a 1.312 OPS in his last 11 games (April 7–20). He's been especially lethal against righties this season, batting .418 with a 1.321 OPS in 58 plate appearances. While Jack Flaherty (1-1, 2.53 ERA) has been pitching well in 2025, Tatis' recent tear and elite power splits against righties give him a good chance to homer again tonight.