Today’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets: Top 5 picks including Jackson Merrill, Rhys Hoskins, and more for May 9, 2025
We’ve got another loaded MLB slate today, and the home run markets are buzzing. With the weather warming up and bullpens already getting stretched thin, it’s a prime window to target some of the league’s hottest bats against vulnerable arms.
A handful of matchups tonight feature pitchers who’ve struggled mightily with the long ball, and several big-name sluggers stepping in with power streaks already in progress. From Aaron Judge’s unreal tear to Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill teeing off in Colorado, the value on these props is too good to ignore.
Let's break down the five strongest spots on the board, backed by recent stat trends, exit velocity data, and home run histories against their opposing pitchers.
Note: Odds are set by DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change. No outcome can be guaranteed when betting on sports.
Today’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
#5. Rhys Hoskins (+390) - Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays
Rhys Hoskins gets a strong home run opportunity tonight against Zack Littell, who’s surrendered 10 homers in just 7 starts. Hoskins brings a healthy .266 AVG with 4 home runs and a .799 OPS into this contest.
Notably, his 39.8% hard-hit rate, 7.7% barrel rate per plate appearance, and .441 expected slugging suggest more power is lurking. At +390, this is a strong value for a proven slugger in a favorable matchup.
#4. Yandy Diaz (+475) - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Yandy Diaz steps into a tempting power spot today against Jose Quintana (4-1, 2.83 ERA), who, despite a solid season line, just surrendered 3 homers in his last outing against the Cubs.
Diaz has quietly been heating up, hitting .259 with 3 homers and a .926 OPS over his last 7 games, including 2 bombs in his last 3 contests. At +475, a sharp value here for a hitter finding his groove against a pitcher showing recent home run issues.
#3. Fernando Tatis Jr. (+210) - San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies
Fernando Tatis Jr. gets a premium matchup today against Antonio Senzatela (1-5, 5.50 ERA), who’s coughed up 8 homers in just 7 starts this season. Tatis has been locked in at the plate, slashing .319/.388/.548 with 8 home runs, 19 RBIs, and a .936 OPS in 2025.
The advanced numbers back up the surge, a 94.3 mph average exit velocity, 11.2% barrel rate per plate appearance. Against a pitcher struggling badly with the long ball, Tatis at +210 feels like one of the slate’s strongest power bets.
#2. Jackson Merrill (+390) - San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies
Jackson Merrill quietly brings huge value today alongside teammate Tatis, facing the same shaky Antonio Senzatela (1-5, 5.50 ERA). Merrill’s been electric since returning from injury, going 4-for-8 with a homer, double, and 2 RBIs in just two games.
With Senzatela serving up 8 homers in 7 starts, Merrill’s combination of elite contact skills and sneaky power makes him a dangerous under-the-radar home run bet at +390 in this high-scoring setup at Coors Field.
#1. Aaron Judge (+160) - New York Yankees vs. Oakland Athletics
Aaron Judge might be the safest power bet on the board today. The Yankees slugger is absolutely locked in, slashing .400/.491/.750 with 12 homers and 34 RBIs so far in 2025. He’s barreling balls at a 14.5% rate with an elite 95.6 mph average exit velocity.
Judge faces Osvaldo Bido (2-2, 4.71 ERA), a pitcher who’s surrendered 7 homers in 7 outings, including a brutal 4-homer game vs. Texas. With Judge’s ridiculous 1.241 OPS and Bido’s home run issues, it’s a premium spot for another big fly from the AL MVP front-runner.