Today’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets: Top 5 picks including Shohei Ohtani, Kerry Carpenter, and more for May 14, 2025
Another loaded MLB slate rolls in, and the long ball market is flashing serious value today. From sluggers heating up to pitchers teetering on the edge, it’s a perfect recipe for power swings. Shohei Ohtani headlines today’s board at +190, riding steady contact and elite exit velocity, while Jose Ramirez’s recent barrel uptick and favorable matchup have his +310 line looking tempting.
We’re also eyeing Kerry Carpenter at a juicy +425, as he’s quietly stacking hard-hit balls and now faces a vulnerable arm. Elly De La Cruz, always a threat with his electric bat speed, sits at +425, and Cal Raleigh’s lefty power stroke gives him strong value at +330.
It’s a well-rounded board of power threats, and today’s prop slate feels like it’s got multiple bombs waiting to land.
Today’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets: Top 5 picks including Shohei Ohtani, Kerry Carpenter, and more for May 14, 2025
#5 Jose Ramirez (Guardians) vs. Logan Henderson (Brewers) | +310
Ramirez is red-hot heading into this matchup, slashing an absurd .440/.533/.800 with two homers and four steals over his last seven games. He’s up against Logan Henderson, who’s making just his second MLB start.
With Ramirez carrying a 95.0 mph average exit velocity during this hot stretch and a season line of .295 AVG with seven homers and 12 steals, his +310 odds offer serious value against an untested arm.
#4 Cal Raleigh (Mariners) vs. Will Warren (Yankees) | +330
Raleigh’s power has been a steady weapon for Mariners this season, belting 13 homers with a .317 ISO and 11.5% barrel rate. He faces Will Warren, who’s allowed seven homers in six starts while carrying a 4.75 ERA.
Raleigh’s 36.3% hard-hit rate and .559 SLG suggest prime home run potential here, and with +330 odds attached, it’s a strong value spot against a homer-prone pitcher in a hitter-friendly ballpark.
#3 Kerry Carpenter (Tigers) vs. Hunter Dobbins (Red Sox) | +425
Carpenter’s been a reliable lefty power hitter this season, launching nine homers with an impressive .252 ISO and 11.0% barrel rate.
While Dobbins has pitched to a solid 2.78 ERA, his limited big-league sample leaves room for volatility against a hitter like Carpenter, who’s slugging .540 with a 33.0% hard-hit rate. At +425, this is a premium value spot on a quietly dangerous bat capable of leaving the yard in any matchup.
#2 Elly De La Cruz (Reds) vs. Davis Martin (White Sox) | +425
Elly’s raw power and electric speed make him one of MLB’s most exciting young players, and he’s heating up fast. With seven homers on the season and two in his last three games, including one just yesterday, De La Cruz is dialed in at the plate.
Facing Davis Martin and his 4.01 ERA, Elly’s upside for another long ball is real, especially with his blend of pop and aggression. At +425, this is a high-ceiling prop worth targeting today.
#1 Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) vs. Gunnar Hoglund (Athletics) | +190
Ohtani’s been on an absolute tear lately, slashing .375 with five homers and 11 RBIs in his last 10 games while posting a ridiculous 1.379 OPS.
With 12 homers on the season, 44 runs scored and 10 steals, he’s been unstoppable in every category. Facing rookie Gunnar Hoglund and his solid 2.38 ERA is a test, but Ohtani’s recent form makes +190 a decent value for a player seeing the ball this well. Betting against Shohei right now feels like a losing proposition.