Yankees analyst tempers fans' expectations of another historic season from Aaron Judge: "They better not expect 62"

New York Yankees fans were absolutely spoiled by Aaron Judge's historic season in 2022. 62 home runs have never been reached by an American League player or anyone without at least the semblance of a steroid controversy.

Expecting a similar season from Judge would be a bit asinine, though.

Michael Kay, who hosts Yankees games on YES Network and has a radio show covering them, pumped the brakes on the expectations.

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Kay said:

"They better not expect 62. I'm not saying that he can't do it, but don't expect it because let's be honest. No one in the history of the American League has ever hit 62 home runs. Last year, we'd gone 61 years since anyone hit 61 in the American League."

Kay gave his predictions, and while they're not historical, they might be good enough for a repeat MVP campaign:

"I think he's one of the top three players in baseball, so what do I expect from him? I expect over .300 [batting average] because he's a great hitter, not just a power hitter. I say you should lock him in anywhere from 45 to 50 home runs and probably 120 to 130 RBIs."

Judge had a historic season, but there's no reason to think he can't produce at an All-Star or even MVP level again this year. He's been at that level when healthy every single year thus far, so there's no reason to expect a steep falloff in 2023.

Aaron Judge predictions for 2023

As Michael Kay mentioned, expecting anywhere close to the record-setting season Aaron Judge just had is both unfair to him and only going to lead to frustration.

Last year, Judge hit 62 home runs, batted .311 and had a stunning 11.4 fWAR. Next season will not be like that.

The projections from Fangraphs expect Judge to hit anywhere from .275 to .285 and knock in 43-48 home runs next season. In terms of fWAR, the predictions dictate he'll be somewhere from 6.8 to 7.3, which is good for another stellar year.

Even in an injury-laden season, Judge's career-low fWAR (not counting 2020) is 4.3 (102 games), so there's plenty of reason to expect a good season again.