2023 NBA Playoffs: 3 things to focus on as Milwaukee Bucks take on Miami Heat
The Miami Heat became the final team to advance to the 2023 NBA Playoffs in the Eastern Conference and will now face the Milwaukee Bucks, who finished the regular season with an NBA-best 58-24 record.
Miami is coming off a tough play-in tournament, where they lost to the Atlanta Hawks (who claimed the No. 7 seee and defeated the Chicago Bulls (91-102) to clinch the No.8 seed in the East.
They have momentum on their side as they prepare to face a Bucks team that has had seven days of rest and hasn't played a meaningful game since April 5 when they secured the best record in the league.
"I will not have played a game in (12 days)," Giannis Antetokounmpo said a few days ago. "Hopefully I'm in a good place when the playoffs start. Obviously it's going to be a long two months -- (a possible) 28 games ahead of you."
With consistent performances on both ends and an excellent supporting cast around the "Greek Freak", the Milwaukee Bucks enter the series as grand favorites. But the Miami Heat have nothing to lose, and it will be a major upset for Milwaukee if they get eliminated.
With that in mind, let's take a look at the three things that could determine the winner of this best-of-seven series:
#1 - Will home-court advantage make the difference for the Milwaukee Bucks?
The Milwaukee Bucks wanted to clinch the best record in the NBA and home-court advantage in the playoffs because they knew how important it would be to play a Game 7 at home.
With just nine defeats at Fiserv Forum and a 32-9 record at home, the Bucks are dominant when they play in front of their fans and hope their home court will be key to another run to the NBA Finals.
Milwaukee saw its title defense come to an end in the Eastern Conference semi-finals, when the Boston Celtics took advantage of their home-court advantage and won Game 7 at TD Garden last May.
"We wanted to have the best record in the East, the best record in the NBA and homecourt advantage and we were able to accomplish that," Giannis Antetokounmpo said, "but that's in the past and that's over with.
"Having the best record doesn't make us the best team. The best team is going to be whoever wins the championship. We have to prove that we're good. We have to play like we're the best team in the NBA."
Milwaukee and Miami split the season series as the home team won all four matchups (2-2). The Heat won two games in three days in January as Giannis Antetokounmpo missed both games due to knee soreness.
The two-time NBA MVP played in both of the Milwaukee Bucks' wins in February, though he left the 128-99 victory on February 24 due to a knee injury.
The Miami Heat finished the regular season with a 44-38 overall record and have won just 17 of their 41 games on the road (17-24 compared to 27-14 at home).
#2 - The Jimmy Butler effect
The Miami Heat didn't make many changes to their roster compared to the team that made it to the Eastern Conference Finals last season and came a game away from the NBA Finals.
However, their season was highlighted by several ups and downs, which eventually didn't cost them another trip to the NBA playoffs.
Jimmy Butler remains the cornerstone of this Heat team, with Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro as the supporting cast and Kyle Lowry and Max Strus (31 points in the elimination game vs the Bulls) playing key roles as well.
Butler is crucial to everything Miami does on both ends of the floor and will be the central component of both teams' gameplans.
The All-Star forward loves to attack mismatches. These mismatches, which Butler creates after setting or receiving screens, will allow him to either attack the basket or find the best option when the Milwaukee Bucks attempt to stop him.
The Milwaukee Bucks have several elite defenders in Jrue Holiday, Jay Crowder, Wesley Matthews and Bobby Portis who will switch to Butler and will try to contain him.
Limiting the All-Star forward on both ends will boost the Milwaukee Bucks' chances of winning the series and advancing to the semi-finals. Jimmy Butler has appeared in 64 games this season, averaging 22.9 points, 5.9 rebounds and 5.3 assists, on 53.9% and 35% from beyond the arc.
#3 - Defense will be the x-factor in the series
Both teams have been elite on defense. The Milwaukee Bucks finished the regular season fourth in defensive efficiency (111.5), and second in both defensive rebounding rate (75.7%) and opponent free throw rate (17.6).
They were 14th on defense, allowing 113.3 points, and on top of the rebounds list with 48.6 per game. Offensively, they had the eighth-best offense with 116.9 points per game.
The Miami Heat, on the other hand, had the second-best defense in the league, conceding just 109.8 points per game,
On the other end of the floor, Miami had the worst offense in the league with 109.5 points per game. They were also not an elite shooting team, after finishing 27th in 3-point percentage (34.8%) and 22nd and 23rd, respectively, in transition offensive efficiency (123.9) and halfcourt offensive efficiency (96.7).
"Our team has obviously not been perfect this year," Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra said. "But I do know one thing about the men in that locker room: The last 48 hours, I know how categorically, unequivocally, how badly and desperately our group wanted to get into this damn thing -- and get into the playoffs to have an opportunity to compete for a title."
Overall, the Heat will attempt to contain the paint and give plenty of 3-point shooting to the Milwaukee Bucks. Meanwhile, the Bucks will focus on containing Butler and Adebayo, so expect the 3-point percentage to be vital for both teams in the series.
This will be the third meeting between the two teams in the playoffs in the last four seasons. The Miami Heat won in five games in 2020 and the Milwaukee Bucks swept the series in 2021.