5 Reasons why Houston Rockets will not win the NBA championship in 2020
The Houston Rockets have been a threat in the Western Conference of the NBA since 2015. In the last 5 years, the Houston Rockets have been to 2 Western Conference Finals and do employ the 2018 league MVP in James Harden.
When this season began way back in October 2019, the Houston Rockets had added point guard Russell Westbrook to their roster as potentially the final piece to crafting a championship team. The problem is several other teams in the league and especially in the Western Conference used the last off-season to reshape their rosters in order to not only just compete with the Houston Rockets but even mount a title charge in the 2019-20 season.
The Houston Rockets will have their work cut out for them when NBA games resume on July 30th with Mike D'Antoni's squad facing the Dallas Mavericks.
Here are 5 reasons the Houston Rockets will not win the 2020 NBA title:
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Defensive Woes
Two seasons ago the Houston Rockets were dominant. They secured a 65-17 regular-season record and pushed the then Golden State Warriors to a 7 game series in the Western Conference Final. Not only was James Harden declared the 2018 league MVP leading an immensly potent offense, which surprisingly was even rated sixth overall defensively.
It has been a long-standing tenant of sports that defense wins championships. In 2020, the Houston Rockets are not as consistent or dominant on the defensive side of their game. At the moment, the Houston Rockets are ranked 15th in the NBA when it comes to the all-important defensive efficiency.
By the stats, they are 14th in rebounding, allow their opponents 114.4 points per game which ranks 22nd best in the NBA, and Russell Westbrook, an important member of the team, is -2 as his offensive rating is lower than his defensive rating over 100 possessions (he allows more points against him than he scores).
Another big set-back that the Houston Rockets suffered was the departure of defensive-minded assistant coach Jeff Bzdelik. He was key to designing the defensive scheme that Houston Rockets employed back in 2018.
To further illustrate the concern about Houston Rockets defense is a recent statement made by head coach Mike D'Antoni
Even if Mike D'Antoni was joking, it is a statement that might give some insight into what he is worried about in preparation for the season's resumption.
The Deficiencies in Russell Westbrook's Game
There is no doubt that Russell Westbrook is a great player. He is a nine-time NBA All-star and the 2017 NBA MVP. He has produced three consecutive triple-double seasons between 2016-2018. Even great players have weaknesses and there is no doubt that Westbrook's basketball deficiencies could be detrimental to the Houston Rockets fortunes in 2020.
First, the Rockets rely heavily on the three-point shot. They attempt 44.1 per game out of their 90.7 shot attempts per match. As a team, their three-point average is 34.8 ranking 23rd overall in the NBA.
Russell Westbrook is only averaging 25.8% on about four attempts per game. This allows defenders to leave Westbrook alone and while focusing on James Harden with soft or hard double-teams. As Houston Rockets second scoring option, not being able to consistently make the three hurts floor spacing and offensive output of the team.
As mentioned earlier, Westbrook per 100 possessions is -2 as he allows 109 points while scoring just 107. He is a defensive liability even though he can fill the stat sheet. This season Westbrook is averaging 27.5 points, 7 assists, and 8 rebounds per game for Houston Rockets.
The Houston Rockets Lack Size
The Houston Rockets are challenged when it comes to their height and size in comparison to the other NBA teams. When the NBA season was suspended the Houston Rockets were 40-24 and seeded sixth in the Western Conference. Already lacking tall players they were involved in a mid-season, trade deadline deal that sent Clint Capela their former six foot ten center to the Atlanta Hawks.
Here's a full summation of the trade:
Atlanta receives: Clint Capela (previous team, Rockets), Nene (Rockets)
Houston receives: Robert Covington (Timberwolves), Jordan Bell (Timberwolves), second-round pick (Timberwolves), 2024 second-round pick (Golden State through Atlanta)
Minnesota receives: Evan Turner (Atlanta), first-round pick (Nets through Atlanta), Malik Beasley (Nuggets), Juancho Hernangomez (Nuggets), Jarred Vanderbilt (Nuggets)
Denver receives: Gerald Green (Rockets), first-round pick (Rockets), Noah Vonleh (Timberwolves), Shabazz Napier (Timberwolves), Keita Bates-Diop (Timberwolves)
The 25-year-old Capela is averaging 13.9 points and a career-high 13.8 rebounds this season, and now joins a young Atlanta team that has struggled throughout 2019–20 NBA season.
At the moment, the Houston Rockets have just one 7 footer on their roster and its Tyson Chandler who is 37 years old and only contributing 8.4 minutes a game. In contrast the LA Lakers who are a favorite to win it all this year, have three seven-footers who are athletic and contribute regularly to the teams cause in Anthony Davis, JaVale McGee, and Dwight Howard.
Combine the lack of size with Houston's mediocre three-point shooting and the fact that LA Lakers use rebounding to facilitate 19 fastbreak points a game, this matchup could be a nightmare for the Rockets if it materializes in the playoffs.
Houston Rockets lack depth on the bench
The Houston Rockets do have nine players averaging 15 plus minutes of playing time at the moment. However, that was after mid-season changes. Earlier this year, before the trade deadline the Houston Rockets relied heavily on eight players. Austin Rivers and Eric Gordon primarily saw time off of the bench until a knee injury sidelined the latter for a while. After that, Ben McLemore began receiving minutes.
Perhaps head coach Mike D'Antoni does not trust his bench. It is a bad recipe if that is the case when you are attempting, after a long regular season, to play and win at least 16 more playoff games in an attempt to capture the NBA title.
Re-examing 2018 stats, when D'Antoni's team last made it to a Western Conference final, the Houston Rockets relied on 13 different players who averaged over 15 minutes per game. The top teams vying for the 2020 title are deep and have reliable benches like the LA Lakers, LA Clippers and Milwaukee Bucks.
Houston Rockets have stiff Western Conference competition
The Houston Rockets will face stiff competition in trying to get to the NBA Finals. While the Houston Rockets added Westbrook as a point guard in the off-season and then swung a mid-season deal for Robert Covington, other Western Conference teams certainly did more.
The LA Lakers added superstar center Anthony Davis from the New Orleans Pelicans by way of trade and signed several key free agents that have them first overall in the Western Conference.
The LA Clippers traded for Russell Westbrook's former teammate in Paul George and added the 2019 NBA Finals MVP in Kawhi Leonard as a free agent. The Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz also have great rosters and hope to make an impact during the 2020 NBA Playoffs.
The Houston Rockets window to win with James Harden as their star may be closing and the 2020 NBA Playoffs do not appear to be their time as of yet.