5 underrated NCAA freshmen who could be 2025 NBA picks
High-caliber freshmen tend to occupy the top of most NBA drafts. That’s the case this year more than most, as the college rookie class looks as strong as ever, headlined by Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper, Ace Bailey and plenty more.
Talented high-school players often slip through the cracks and end up vastly underrated by recruiting services and draft scouts. Prospects like Reed Sheppard, Carlton Carrington and Taylor Hendricks transcended their pre-college status and found themselves high in the NBA draft.
With a freshman class as deep as the 2024-25 one, some prospects are bound to surprise and play themselves onto draft radars. Let’s discuss five underrated freshmen with true NBA potential, whether that’s this season or in the future.
Jeremiah Fears, Guard, Oklahoma
After reclassifying to play for Oklahoma this season, Fears has instantly become one of the most potent creators in the country. He’s commanding an absurd 32.8% usage rate, the highest of any freshman in the country, with an efficient 62.4% true shooting mark. For comparison, the only other high-major freshmen to eclipse a 32% usage rate and 60% true shooting percentage since 2008 are Michael Beasley (‘08), Nick Ward (‘17) and Dylan Harper.
Despite some rough spots around the edges (notably his high 25% turnover rate), Fears looks the part of a future NBA on-ball creator. He’s a dominant advantage creator — at 6’4 with an explosive first step and sometimes a violent change of speed, Fears can reach any spot on the court he chooses. His enormous 47.1% rim frequency, 54.7% free-throw rate and 4.9% steal rate provide evidence for his athletic dominance.
His shooting projection is strong as well given Fears’s volume (7.2 3-pointers per 100 possession) and his 87.2% free-throw percentage. He’s comfortable pulling off of the dribble, weaponizing ball screens to set defenders up and find creases to score and pass. Despite his turnovers, Fears’s volume playmaking keeps his assist-to-turnover ratio (1.1) above neutral.
Fears’s ability to create advantages off of the dribble paired with his passing, shooting and defensive flashes could be enough to see him drafted in the lottery or higher. Continuing his strong play against SEC opponents will be key, but he’s talented enough for a team to bet on him becoming more consistent.
Jase Richardson, Guard, Michigan State
Tom Izzo tends to be patient with freshmen, tying them to the pine to learn from the sideline. That makes it all the more impressive when a Spartan newbie plays big minutes early and Jase Richardson is making it difficult for Izzo to keep him out of the rotation. He’s been a key two-way contributor thus far.
Some of Richardson’s more advanced statistical indicators stand out — 11.9 Box Plus-Minus, 75.9% true shooting, 7.0 assist-to-turnover ratio, 2.2% steal rate and a 42.5% free-throw rate. All of these numbers loosely predict positive athleticism and feel for the game, both critical for NBA translation.
Richardson must prove himself a more capable creator to end up high on NBA boards, as he’s mostly an off-ball, second-side attacker to this point. He’s been an accurate 3-point shooter (53.8%), but Richardson’s low volume at just 13 attempts through seven games must increase.
Even if Richardson can’t take on a higher-usage creator role, he’s profiling like a future complementary NBA guard. His decision-making on both ends of the floor, defensive chops and touch around the rim all bode well for his NBA future. Some scouts who value his statistical production will value Richardson as a first-rounder this season.
Thomas Sorber, Center, Georgetown
If there’s any spot where the 2025 draft isn’t as strong as others, it’s the center position. None of the top bigs are known commodities yet and many of the best center/forward prospects have significant weaknesses. That opens the door for an incredibly productive player like Thomas Sorber to enter the discussion.
Sorber has been a phenomenal defensive presence so far, posting an impressive 7.8% block rate and a 3.7% steal rate. He’s a prolific playmaker — the only other freshman with a steal rate above 3% and a block rate above 7% is VJ Edgecombe. Despite standing around 6’9, Sorber’s length, explosion and instincts all let him wreck shots at the rim and bother in passing lanes.
He’s shown the ability to move in all directions while covering pick and rolls. When he does lose his position, Sorber fights hard to recover. He’s an incredibly productive rebounder on both ends, swallowing up boards to extend possessions.
Shorter centers always face translation concerns to the league and Sorber must prove he can defend the interior at a high level and score at the rim. So far, his excellent finishing at the rim (79.4%) adds optimism. He’s an excellent playmaker as well, capable of processing the floor in advantage situations and finding shooters and cutters from multiple slots on the floor.
As a smaller, low-volume shooter at center, Sorber must be exceptional in other areas to thrive in the NBA. His athleticism as a leaper and a mover as well as his touch and playmaking provide optimism that he can be that. Georgetown’s competition hasn’t been strong so far, but Sorber could stamp himself as a high pick this year if he keeps playing well deep into conference play.
Kanon Catchings, Wing, BYU
Catchings’ freshman teammate, Egor Demin, has hogged much of the spotlight early in BYU’s season. Demin’s breakout performance shouldn’t take away from what Catchings has flashed. He’s playing like a potential future NBA 3-and-D wing, even if he’ll need plenty of development time to reach that ceiling.
The threes aren’t falling yet for Catchings (31.1%), but his enormous volume (16.2 attempts per 100 possessions) and great touch are both encouraging indicators. It’s quite rare for 6’9 freshman forwards to take and make shots sprinting off screens and pulling off of the dribble like Catchings can.
On the defensive end, Catchings adds value as a playmaker, currently sporting an impressive 5.6% block rate. He can make some questionable decisions on both ends and doesn’t add much outside of shooting on offense, but the foundation of a productive NBA role-playing wing is evident.
He’s already appeared in some first-round mock drafts, underscoring the strong start to Catchings’ college career. If he can up his three-point percentage and continue to pop on defense into Big 12 play, it wouldn’t be shocking to see an NBA team valuing his complementary skillset highly.
Tyrone Riley IV, Wing, San Francisco
Recruiting services ranked Riley IV well outside of the top 100 entering college and he wasn’t on my radar before the season. Through his first seven college games, the 6’6 wing has been one of San Francisco’s better players, leading the team in Box Plus-Minus (7.1) and true shooting percentage (69.8%).
BPM isn’t a hugely useful tool for projecting prospects, but we can employ it as a rough approximation of current impact. His BPM ranks 14th among all freshmen, underscoring his current production. But college freshmen must be more than productive to become true NBA prospects and Riley IV has shown translatable skills, especially on the defensive end.
Riley IV’s pairing of anticipation and quick twitch movement make him an effective off-ball playmaker and weak-side helper. His wingspan appears long on tape and his length is incredibly functional in disrupting passing lanes and weak handles.
While Riley IV is farther away from positive impact on the offensive end given his lack of polish with the ball in his hands, but he’s shown the ability to be impactful with his cutting and rebounding even when his shots don’t fall. Riley IV’s 3-point indicators are encouraging to this point, especially his volume (7.4 3-point attempts per 100 possessions).
It may take time for NBA teams to catch up to Riley IV given his existence in a less prominent conference. But he has the makings of a viable 3-and-D wing if his shot continues to fall, rendering him an evergreen prospect in the modern game of basketball.