Ace Bailey scouting report: Rutgers' scoring phenom makes first steps toward 2025 NBA Draft
Each new crop of prospects brings some players who spark more discussion than others for whatever reason. For the 2025 NBA draft cycle, one of those players is Rutgers freshman wing Ace Bailey. Some scouts view him as the top prospect in the draft and others won’t view him as a top-five player.
Bailey’s play early in his college career represents his impressive strengths and notable improvement points. Through his first six games, Bailey averaged 18.8 points on 57.7% true shooting, 5.8 rebounds and 0.7 assists per game. His shotmaking for a 6’10 teenager pops off of the page, but his playmaking and driving limitations could hold him back for the future.
Ace Bailey NBA player comparison: Paul George or Michael Porter Jr.
Scouts will debate what Bailey’s ceiling looks like. Is he a jumbo creator akin to Paul George or an off-ball shotmaker in the mold of Michael Porter Jr.? Regardless of his eventual pro role, Bailey’s prospect profile will center around his shooting.
In high school, Bailey dazzled with impressive, versatile off-dribble shotmaking and deep-range 3-point shooting. That’s carried over to the college game, as Bailey’s early-season shooting indicators are strong — 37.9% (11-29) on 8.1 3-pointers per 100 possessions, 80% from the free-throw line and 43.5% (20/46) on far 2-pointers.
Bailey’s off-ball shooting bodes well for his projection to the NBA as a scalable, jumbo shotmaking wing. It’s his most impressive trait, as his height, touch and excellent fluidity let him sprint and twist into shots. He’s a unique threat working as an off-ball mover, ghost screener and spacer.
For Bailey to compare more favorably to past high-level shooting prospects, he should continue to improve his 3-point volume. Shooting volume is a strong indicator of long-term shotmaking potential and given how elite of a movement shooter he is, Bailey should weaponize that as often as possible. His 8.1 triples per 100 possessions are solid but tall shooting prospects like Brandon (12.5), Jabari Smith (10.7), Franz Wagner (9.2) and Trey Murphy (10.7).
Bailey doesn’t hide his mid-range prowess, shooting 48.3% (14/29) on off-dribble mid-range jumpers. These jumpers please aesthetically and make for incredible highlights. It’s tough to live off of difficult shots, but Bailey’s talent here is clear. His decision-making needs refining, but these shots are a dangerous component of his arsenal.
What does Ace Bailey need to do to reach his ceiling?
For Bailey to reach his ceiling, he must improve as a driver and a playmaker. He rarely passes the ball, tallying four assists in his first six college games. His assist-to-turnover ratio (0.4) reflects negatively on his feel for the game.
Especially for perimeter players, low assist-to-turnover ratios often indicate more volatility and a lower ceiling. No drafted perimeter players with marks under 0.5 have made an All-Star team. This is an arbitrary cutoff but it hints at the value of positive decision-making and passing feel.
Bailey boasts some passing vision, as he occasionally flashes competence as a pick-and-roll passer or a kickout passer off his drives. His main problems come against pressure, where his decision-making often falters. When defenders crowd his space, Bailey often reverts to his bread-and-butter pull-up jumpers.
Those same struggles against pressure limit him as a driver as well. Bailey’s handle often fails him in traffic, as his lack of lower body strength and ball control lets defenders bump and bruise at will. Despite his height and impressive flashes of open-floor athleticism, Bailey rarely makes his way to the hoop.
A paltry 9.1% of Bailey’s half-court shots have come at the rim so far this season. That’s incredibly low even among shotmaking wing prospects. He’ll need to prove he can survive in the paint if Bailey develops into an all-around offensive star.
Despite some impressive flashes, Bailey’s athleticism doesn’t suit him well to slashing and downhill advantage creation. He’s more fluid and flexible than powerful and explosive, often lacking the burst and sheer force to turn the corner. He’ll gain some of this with added strength as he ages and develops.
Bailey has attacked the hoop more over his last few games, making six of his 10 shots at the rim against Alabama and Texas A&M. Many of these chances came attacking closeouts, where Bailey can weaponize his off-ball shooting gravity.
Even if Bailey never develops into a primary driver, he’ll be able to punish defenses who run him off of the line. It’s good to see Bailey attack decisively in these moments, pushing the ball to the paint and dropping in floaters.
While Bailey’s offensive play has been about as expected, his defense has far exceeded my expectations. High school defense can be difficult to evaluate due to the level of competition and barebones defensive schemes, especially for teams like McEachern where Bailey was the tallest, most talented player.
His fluidity, change of direction and mobility all shine on the defensive end, especially as an off-ball defender. He’s been an active playmaker, posting a solid 2.1% block rate and 2.5% steal rate. Bailey’s explosion still limits him some as a paint protector, but he’s shown the willingness to rotate hard and challenge shots at the rim as a helper.
Bend and agility fuel Bailey’s impressive screen navigation potential. Most taller players struggle to evade screens given their higher center of gravities and inability to change directions. Bailey is unique in how he dips his shoulder and attaches to players. He will lose to hard screens due to his strength, but these are promising flashes and most freshmen struggle on defense.
Ace Bailey's true role in the NBA will be different
Those same strength issues limit Bailey’s point-of-attack defense at this point. Bigger, stronger handlers easily create space against Bailey and he’s often not explosive enough to recover. His lateral quickness allows for some potential but Bailey’s best stuff comes off of the ball.
This is becoming a trend for Bailey, as his two most enticing traits come without the basketball. That renders Bailey a highly valuable prospect but in a different role than some may view him. Bailey probably won’t develop into a full-fledged creator due to his reliance on tough jumpers and lower feel for the game.
He can, however, develop into a malleable, two-way wing that the NBA covets. That might not make him a top-two prospect in an elite draft class but it does carry him to high-end value. Elite off-dribble three-point shooting could vault Bailey to low-end stardom for points in his career. He should develop into the kind of player who adds value next to other star talents, making him a critical piece on great teams for years to come.