Atlanta Hawks’s diamond in the rough, Jalen Johnson is set to sparkle in year 4
For an Atlanta Hawks team in a state of transition, few factors loom larger than Jalen Johnson’s development. The third-year forward took a notable leap on both ends last season, elevating his play to become one of Atlanta’s best players. The 20th pick in the 2021 draft has clearly outplayed his draft slot already. He’s on track to develop into a foundational piece for the Hawks’ future.
Last season, Johnson saw his minute share more than double (14.9 -> 33.7) from his sophomore campaign. And he stuffed the stat sheet; Johnson averaged 16.0 points, 8.7 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.2 steals per game on 58.4% true shooting percentage. That production from an effective first-time starter was highly encouraging.
Most young players see an efficiency decrease when teams thrust them into bigger roles. Johnson’s efficiency, on the contrary, increased across the board. His true shooting percentage eclipsed the league average for the first time (not counting his rookie season, where Johnson played just five minutes a night).
Jalen Johnson Scouting Report
Despite his scoring progression, Jalen Johnson’s passing remains the strong aspect of his profile. He’s always possessed rare passing feel, vision, and ball skills for his height, and he’s turning those traits into consistent winning impact. Johnson’s 15.4% assist rate placed him in the top 25 of all bigs (>20 minutes per game) last season.
He’s already one of the league’s most versatile tall playmakers. Johnson’s lightning-quick processing speed lets him excel in the short roll. Few players command more blitz/trap coverage than Trae Young does, and Johnson is an ideal outlet. He’s comfortable putting the ball on the floor in advantage scenarios and making rapid decisions off the catch to cutters and shooters.
Johnson can invert and run pick and rolls as the ballhandler, unlocking more lineup diversity. With excellent vision to pass over defenses from a live dribble with both hands, Johnson accesses windows many players his size cannot. Those same tools also help Johnson excel as an off-catch playmaker, capitalizing on already-tilted defenses rotating to catch up.
Development as a shooter allows Jalen Johnson to access more drives and passes than he previously had. Last season, Johnson shot a respectable 35.5% from deep. He drilled 37.6% of his catch-and-shoot triples.
He’ll need to increase his volume from 3.8 attempts per 75 possessions to continue demanding defensive attention, especially in the postseason. But Johnson’s three-point progression to this point has been encouraging.
His mid-range scoring prowess adds to the shooting optimism, as Johnson scored on an elite 51.1% (24-47) of his off-dribble mid-rangers. Applying physicality to the basket has been an issue for Johnson for years, but his proficiency as a mid-range shotmaker somewhat remedies that.
Though Johnson’s driving creation has seen improvements, he’s still not a consistent self-creator at the rim. Cutting, running in transition, and catching lobs inflate Johnson’s solid efficiency at the rim (60.8%). He shot a frigid 43.8% on his half-court layups, though, indicative of his slashing improvement points.
Despite his imposing frame and athleticism, Jalen Johnson still settles for difficult, leaning floaters and twisting shots too often. Those shots have always been his comfort zone. Continuing to add strength, tighten his handle and clean up his footwork will help improve layup efficiency, but a significant mindset/wiring shift to embrace consistent physicality would make the most difference.
Johnson’s length disrupts action on the defensive end. He’s an active weak-side helper, rotating down to steal passes and protect the rim. Added core strength and attentiveness have helped Johnson unlock his natural gifts. He covers ground as well as any forward in the league, swooping in to block and alter shots.
He’s finally harnessing the natural ability he’s always flashed into consistent off-ball defensive impact. Johnson plugs up windows by his length and reaction speed. He makes life tough for offenses operating in his area as a team defender.
Atlanta often tasked Jalen Johnson to defend the paint as a primary, exposing his weak points. While Johnson is an excellent interior defender for a wing, he’s not tall, explosive, or strong enough to consistently defend centers.
Johnson’s feet move quickly enough to defend on the perimeter, but he can struggle to round screens especially, as his feet often tangle and limit his ability to change directions against those picks. Still, some of his flashes on the perimeter are tantalizing.
Jalen Johnson won’t carry the blame for Atlanta’s paper-thin defense last season. He was Atlanta’s highest-usage contesting defender (15.4 defended shots per game) and the most effective, allowing a team-low (among qualified players) 47.6% field goal percentage on those shots defended.
With Johnson on the floor, Atlanta’s defense improved by four points per 100 possessions to the tune of a 117.8 defensive rating. That defensive rating would rank the Hawks 25th in the league. With Johnson off the floor, Atlanta’s defense would be the worst in the NBA by nearly two points per 100 possessions.
Despite some clear improvement points, Johnson was Atlanta’s most impactful defender as a 22-year-old last season. He’s on a clear upward trajectory on both sides of the ball, with the impact and high-end flashes requisite of future star development.
The Hawks’ defense should improve this season with the additions of Dyson Daniels and the continued progression of Jalen Johnson and other young pieces like Onyeka Okongwu and first-overall pick Zaccharie Risacher.
Jalen Johnson is undeniably a long-term core prospect in Atlanta
Jalen Johnson should continue to grow into a key core piece for Atlanta in due time. His undeniable two-way skillset should keep flourishing next to Trae Young as one of the best complementary offensive, defensive ace forwards in the league. Johnson’s offensive ceiling may tie to how much usage he can command.
Even with lots of playing time, Johnson’s overall usage rate (19.1%) was still quite low. Will Johnson ever be able to score and create advantages at the level of a higher-usage handler?
If Johnson becomes a more threatening shooter or a more efficient scorer at the basket, he could weaponize his playmaking and movement skills as an effective creator. And in that timeline, Johnson’s development into a regular All-Star won’t be out of the question.