Can the Oklahoma City Thunder survive without Russell Westbrook?

It’s a situation Kevin Durant and the Oklahoma City Thunder are all too familiar with. And afraid of. In last year’s first round playoff match-up with the Houston Rockets, Russell Westbrook suffered a partially torn meniscus after colliding with Rockets guard Patrick Beverly in the second game of the series. Westbrook would miss the rest of the playoffs and even though the Thunder were able to defeat Houston, they fell in five games to the Memphis Grizzlies.

After receiving off-season knee surgery that was expected to keep him out of the line-up for at least two weeks after the start of the NBA season (but actually only kept him out of two games), Westbrook looked very much his old self, slicing and weaving through defenses and taking the ball aggressivey to the hoop. However, in late December, Westbrook experienced increased swelling in his right knee and underwent a series of MRI’s. What did those MRI’s determine? In a statement to the press, Thunder GM Sam Presti said:

“On the most recent MRI, it was determined by the surgeon that there was an area of concern that had not previously existed nor was detectable in the previous procedures, and it was necessary to evaluate Russell further. The consulting physician determined that arthroscopic surgery was necessary to address the swelling that was taking place. We know that Russell’s work ethic and commitment will help him return to the level of play that we have all come to appreciate.”

With arthroscopic surgery, a procedure usually done to clear up debris and junk in an oft-injured area, Westbrook is expected to be out until the All-Star Break, missing at least 27 games. Westbrook has had three significant surgeries on his right knee in the last eight months, a tremendous physical trial that could now have severe career implications for Westbrook if he rushes back too quickly. The fact that Westbrook’s surgically repaired knee has failed to make a full recovery is especially troublesome. One questions whether or not the other two knee surgeries would have been necessary if Westbrook had taken the time to let his knee completely heal. Recent reports have shown that Westbrook is off crutches and doing intense rehab exercises just two weeks after his latest surgery.

For me, this is a big warning sign to the Thunder. Former league MVP Derrick Rose (a player who has the same style of play as Westbrook) has remained a shell of himself since tearing his ACL three years ago. Westbrook needs to understand that rushing himself will jeopardize his ability to play in the long run. It remains to be seen whether Westbrooks’ versatility will remain intact after this surgery. Russell’s knees needs to be exceptionally strong to permit him to run his signature one-man fast breaks and paint penetration. Even if it means Westbrook doesn’t step on the court for the rest of the season, this franchise needs to think long-term with Westbrook and not just worry about making the finals this year. So what does this mean for the Thunder right now?

So far, they have been able to get by without Westbrook’s services, going 4-2 since the point guard went down. However, before Sunday’s night victory against the Boston Celtics, the Thunder had dropped two in a row and three of the last four at home. I believe the Thunder will spiral down the Western Conference standings as long as Westbrook is on the sideline. Reggie Jackson has done a commendable job running the offense but he doesn’t possess the same explosiveness or shooting abilities that Westbrook is so well known for. Moving Jackson to the starting line-up also weakens an already poor Thunder bench, meaning “Old Man” Fisher will have to assume back-up duties in his 18th year in the league.

Of course, any team with Kevin Durant has a chance to win the ball game on any given night, but can they rely on him solely to take them deep into the playoffs? I say no. Serge Ibaka has proven to be inconsistent in his career and after Durant and Ibaka, the Thunder has no player they can depend on for consistent scoring. Jeremy Lamb and Nick Collison have provided solid contributions off the bench, but Lamb is known to be a gunner (hot or cold), and Collison is a one-dimensional player. Seldom-used Perry Jones III has seen an increase of minutes, but don’t expect him to be the Thunders’ savior.

With a tough schedule ahead of them that sees Oklahoma City play the Grizzlies, Rockets, Golden State Warriors, and Portland Trail Blazers in the span of the week, expect to see the Thunder drop their fair share of games.