Franz Wagner is worth every penny of his $224 million contract
Franz Wagner is a key piece for one of the league’s rising, most exciting teams. Orlando’s 2021 top 10 pick has evolved into an impactful, ascending star quickly. His pairing with Paolo Banchero drove the Magic to a near playoff win. Wagner’s building resume is quite impressive. Despite all the apprehension surrounding his massive $224 million payday, we think he is worth the money.
In year four, can Franz take another leap towards full-fledged stardom? He’s already a sub-all-star-level player, averaging 19.7 points, 5.3 boards and 3.7 assists on 57.5% true shooting.
Wagner’s efficiency slightly dipped from last season as his usage increased, largely due to his frigid three-point shooting. Impact metrics like Estimated Plus-Minus still viewed Wagner as a top 35 player despite the cold streak.
Franz Wagner's shooting is not as concerning for now
Last season, Wagner converted 28.1% of his moderate volume (5.3 attempts per 75 possessions). Wagner shot below 30% on both catch and shoot (29.8%) and off-dribble (27.7%) 3s. Across his first two seasons, Wagner shot nearly 38% on his catch and shoot 3s.
Given Wagner’s positive shooting track record dating to before college, it’s reasonable to expect Wagner’s shot to bounce back. His jumper allowed defenders to sag and roam off of Franz more often, mucking up an already clunky Magic offense. To maintain high-level off-ball impact, the jumper has to rebound.
Despite a disastrous shooting season, Wagner maintained solid efficiency off the back of his elite driving game. Among players with 10 or more drives per game last season, Wagner’s efficiency (53.6%) placed him 16th overall and second of the 6’10+ drivers only to Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Wagner snakes through defenses as a driver, flexing his smooth, fluid movement and excellent handle. He’s one of the NBA’s best wing handlers, incredibly controlled with the ball and wise in his pacing. Wagner will wait and pause in the pick and roll, keeping his dribble alive deep into plays to create shots and passing angles.
He’s athletic enough to win with first step and explosion at the rim at times, though he relies on his size and craft as a finisher. Wagner made 64.7% of his shots at the hoop last year, placing him in the 64th percentile.
His immense driving volume more than made up for any efficiency lapses, racking up 8.6 rim attempts per 75 possessions (95th percentile). That’s good for 17th in the NBA last year in volume, only trailing LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Zion Williamson among non-centers.
Against Cleveland in the playoff, Wagner’s offense waxed and waned, scarred by a six-point, 18% true shooting performance in Game 7. Wagner isn’t the quickest player with the ball and strong defenders can swarm his handle. In that game, Wagner struggled to create advantages with his handle and mobility.
Franz Wagner's playmaking can aid his off nights in the scoring department
Even when Wagner’s driving sputters, his excellent wing passing helps maintain his offensive value. Despite pedestrian assist numbers, Wagner’s passing talent rivals any wing in the league. Orlando’s bottom-of-the-league shooting deflates assist numbers. His processing can slow against pressure, but the playmaking is usually stellar.
Wagner blends his driving and handling with excellent vision and passing skills. When he maintains a live dribble, defenses collapse to Wagner’s scoring gravity and he’ll punish accordingly.
He’s an advanced pick-and-roll playmaker, skipping passes over defenses with his height and firing passes to rollers. Wagner regularly flashes high and manipulative passing and should see more playmaking chances in the offense going forward.
Franz Wagner's defense is elite
Franz Wagner established himself as a high-level wing defender early into his career. He’s one of the league’s most versatile chess pieces, impacting as an on and off-ball defender with his size and movement skills. Wagner envelops offensive players with his length and agility, thriving as a nail-and-dig defender. It’s a challenge to drive past his outstretched limbs.
Quicker players can burn Wagner on the perimeter. His lack of lateral explosion and change of direction skill limit his point-of-attack versatility, but Wagner does recover and contest with his length and size. He’s best at defending wings, where he can match size and regain a movement skills advantage.
His off-ball defense shines in Orlando’s elite defense, making long rotations to jump passing lanes and protecting the rim. Wagner’s constant sharp positioning combined with his mobility let him see and cover any ground he needed to, helping fuel the Magic’s aggressive, swarming defense.
He’s not an elite shot blocker but Wagner makes effortful contests at the basket, maintaining verticality to deter and alter shots. Elite defense from disadvantage results from stellar length, instincts and reaction time. Orlando can deploy Wagner however they need to fairly strong results, even if he’s not elite at every role he plays.
Franz Wagner's offense determines his ultimate ceiling
Ultimately, upping his scoring volume will determine the limits of Wagner’s star ceiling. Can he elevate his offensive responsibility even further? Wagner’s usage and scoring volume increased each season and it’s encouraging to continue that trend despite Wagner’s decline in three-pointe efficiency. His shot may fluctuate throughout his career but that scoring creation will place the ceiling.
Wagner turned 21 late in August. He’s still younger than some rookies heading into his fourth year, indicative of his sometimes underrated potential. There’s still plenty of handling refinement and intermediate scoring development to unlock. He’ll still be a highly impactful defender.
At the moment, the Magic sit just outside of the East’s highest echelon. Aside from Boston, most of the contenders are older and farther along on their timelines than Orlando. Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Miami and New York must consider age (and health, to various extents) more than the Magic do. A Wagner development this season could help vault them into that top group.
Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero’s collective ceiling could tip the balance of power in the Eastern Conference in the near future timeline. Wagner’s continued improvement as an offensive engine along with elite playmaking and defensive impact make him a worthy co-star for the short and long haul.