"Herro almost suffers from his own success, and the Heat's" - Zach Lowe articulates why Tyler Herro's market is so polarising
The market for Tyler Herro is divisive.
Herro was the reigning Sixth Man of the Year and the second highest scorer (20.7 points per game) on his team last season. He managed that despite starting just 10 games and was offensively efficient enough to dig the Heat out of holes in the regular season.
However, his playoff performance and a being somewhat of a defensive liability has put a question mark on his value.
Herro is due a rookie-extension and became eligible after the 2021-22 season. His max extension would be somewhere around $188 million for five years, earning him north of $32 million on average each year.
While the Miami Heat are out vying for both Kevin Durant and Donovan Mitchell, it is very unlikely that either of those trades will take place without Herro's exit. In such a scenario, Herro's extension could be a burden (no less with the poison pill provision) the Nets or the Jazz might have to bear.
Hence, his market value against other assets (for eg., RJ Barrett) is weighed meticulously without carrying out a trade for him.
In his article on ESPN, Zach Lowe is much more optimistic about Herro, and outlines a major reason why Herro's contemporaries' values might be bloated:
"Herro almost suffers from his own success, and the Heat's. He has played 40 postseason games. Barnes has played four, Barrett five. Barnes and Barrett retain the allure of the unknown."
Are you taking RJ Barrett over Tyler Herro? 🧐 https://t.co/Bv7AVrL1lu
He added:
"They have not faced the best teams, over and over, or been central players in the only game of the night in late May and June. They have not battled the nastiest defenders in the highest-stakes games, been the target of specific game plans, or guarded superstar scorers with everything on the line." (via) ESPN
What will happen if Tyler Herro is extended and traded?
In a situation where the Nets dispatch Kevin Durant and the Jazz Donovan Mitchell, Tyler Herro's position on the Heat roster is severely jeopardized. But neither of those teams will maintain their position on bearing Herro's contract if the poison pill provision comes into effect.
Interesting, from @andyblarsen of Salt Lake Tribune, "At least one voice in the Jazz’s front office prefers Herro as a return to [RJ] Barrett ... Tyler Herro’s likelihood of being a cheaper contract moving forward and his more advanced shooting stroke are reasons for optimism."
The poison pill provision in the NBA changes the incoming value of a rookie who has been extended. A cap hit on any team that acquires Herro would be the average of his current and extended salary over the requisite time period.