On Jalen Green, the Rockets’ winning streak and their long-term hopes
Jalen Green's Houston Rockets pulled off an incredible, 132-126, road comeback at the Atlanta Hawks on Monday night.
The Rockets (9-18) outscored Atlanta 44-25 in the fourth quarter with hot shooting and incredible defense to pull off a stunning win. They have won eight of their past 10 games and, crazily enough, are two games behind the sputtering Portland Trail Blazers (11-16) for 10th in the Western Conference.
Finishing 10th would put Houston in the play-in tournament, making a once-ludicrous possibility appear possible, although still improbable. The Rockets went 17-55 last season in their first year after star James Harden, who had helped them to eight straight playoff appearances, departed.
Almost all of this success has come without Jalen Green. The Rockets’ future hope has played only one quarter during this stretch before suffering a hamstring injury. USA Today reported that, as of Friday, there is still no timetable for his return, and the Rockets intend to be extremely cautious with Green, the No. 2 overall pick in July's draft.
This has spurred analysts to say the absence of Green is the impetus for Houston turning things around. Meanwhile, Rockets fans, like those at The Dreamshake, have argued this is not the case, and that other changes have been the reason for the turnaround from the team's 1-16 start. The truth falls somewhere in between.
Green’s Future
The Dreamshake points out that the biggest change causing the turnaround is the end of the ridiculous Daniel Theis-Christian Wood starting lineup. That lineup was better defensively compared to current lineups, but the shooting and spacing were so terrible that Green nor anyone else could get to the rim. There is a reason Theis has fallen out of rotation and has only participated in three games this month.
Yet while that is true, what is also true is that Green has been an utter mess this season. He has more turnovers than assists, barely has more points than field goals, his weird-looking 3-point shot has been missing, and he all too often seemed lost and far from the NBA-ready prospect which his G-League experience was supposed to grant him.
Green played well in the one quarter without the Theis-Wood lineup, scoring 11 points in the first quarter before getting injured, and Rockets fans hope he will continue to get better as the season progresses. But so far, with the actual rather than future theoretical results, Green has not been a positive impact player.
Here's the thing: There's nothing wrong with that.
NBA fans, excited for the next big thing, do tend to overestimate just how much rookies contribute to winning play out of the gate. This is especially so with players like Green. Lanky 19-year-old guards often struggle in the NBA, and few rookies are positive impact players.
Players like Alperen Sengun (OKC Thunder, No 16 pick) and mobley" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-is-sponsored="false">Evan Mobley (Cleveland Cavaliers, No 3 pick), rookies who are contributing to winning immediately, do not happen very often.
There are multiple examples of NBA stars and even legends who, as rookies, were generally little more than glorified chuckers, and there are rookies who made a good impact immediately yet never progressed further.
Bradley Beal, Anthony Edwards and even Kevin Durant are examples of the former.
Beal averaged 13.9 points on 12.3 shots, which is comparable to Green averaging 14 points on 12.7 shots. Anthony Edwards was a complete mess for much of the beginning of his rookie season. While the No. 1 overall pick (by the Minnesota Timberwolves) last season has fallen off somewhat recently after an incredible start, he has still clearly become a positive impact player with major star potential.
The NBA is difficult, and it can take young players years to adjust. Beal (No. 3 pick by the Washington Wizards in 2012) did not make an All-Star team until his sixth season. While few are suggesting Green would need that much time to become a standout, 20 games is too small of a sample size to determine whether choosing Green over Mobley is the catastrophic decision some are already arguing it is.
Fans should not conclude Green’s initial struggles mean he is a bust, and he may still struggle when he returns. And while it is possible Green will play better, especially given the end of the Wood-Theis starting lineups, it is also possible his return will make the Rockets worse in the short run. He will have 1-for-10 shooting games. He will have bad turnovers. He will have defensive lapses.
That is going to happen, and Rockets fans should get used to it instead of setting overly high expectations for what Green will do when he returns. Dreams of making the play-in tournament aside, this season is about development and, in the end, possibly tanking.
Houston could still finish with the worst record in the league, but the Rockets will have a shot at getting the top spot, and the upcoming draft is loaded. It is best not to be overly joyous when Green returns, nor overly pessimistic if he continues to struggle despite the lineup change.