Kasparas Jakucionis scouting report: On the heels of Cooper Flagg and Dylan Harper
A clear top two seems to be emerging for the 2025 NBA Draft, those prospects being Duke’s Cooper Flagg and Rutgers’s Dylan Harper. Behind those two, quite a few prospects will vy for that third spot if things hold as they are.
Illinois freshman Kasparas Jakucionis is making a strong case as a top-level prospect for the NBA Draft. We discussed Jakucionis’s game against Alabama earlier this season and will focus on his recent overtime loss against Northwestern. In the loss, Jakucionis tallied 20 points (7-16), 7 assists, 4 turnovers 10 rebounds, 1 steal and 1 block.
Jakucionis has built his prospect case on a blend of elite passing and shotmaking talent. At 6’4, Jakucionis weaponizes his height to pass and score over defenders. His outside shooting caught fire against Northwestern, nailing 6 of his 10 3-point attempts.
Breaking down Kasparas Jakucionis' offensive talent
The majority of those attempts came on difficult, off-dribble jumper. He’s a step-back assassin, creating loads of space with hard plants. Coming off of the screen, Jakucionis stabs with his left leg before hopping back into a pretty contested jumper:
It’s still a small sample, but Jakucionis is currently shooting 57.9% (11-19) on off-dribble threes this season. He’s a potent space creator paired with his excellent touch and height for his position. That space creation especially neutralizes switches, where he can step back and burn bigs who sell out to stop his drives:
Because of his shooting threat, defenses will sell out to close hard and limit his shooting. Jakucionis counters with pump fakes and side steps, creating space for a triple on this 3-pointer off of the catch:
He’s a threat to fire off of the catch, which helps him force hard closeouts. Plenty of dynamic on-ball shooting prospects struggle off of the catch, unwilling to fire when they have openings. Jakucioins hasn’t made his off-catch threes this year, going 3 for 14 so far on those attempts, but this movement 3-pointer was promising:
Kasparas Jakucionis weaknesses
His slashing threat will be a critical counter to Jakucionis’s shooting. Driving and finishing will be some of Jakucionis’s biggest improvement areas — he went just 1 for 6 on 2-pointers against Northwestern. His half-court rim frequency this season (30.4%) is solid but his physical tools give some reason for concern.
Even when Jakucionis makes his way to the hoop, his lack of size and vertical explosion limits his finishing potential. On this play, Jakucionis drives all the way to the hoop but has his shot blocked:
Without an elite first step or the upper body strength to carve driving angles. Jakucionis can dribble himself into trouble. Here, he picks up the ball in traffic as he tends to do and loses the advantage:
Once again, Jakucionis drives to his left but can’t angle himself into the paint. He picks up the ball smothered by a defender and coughs it up:
Jakucionis boasts a creative and dynamic handle at times, but his ball control is far from perfect, resulting in a high 26.8% turnover rate so far this season. Ball security often improves as players, but Jakucionis’s handle is vulnerable to swipes and digs at the moment.
When Jakucionis can’t manufacture advantages with his athletic tools, he’ll rely on his craft and footwork. He loves to spin off over-aggressive defenders, creating a great look here even if the shot doesn’t fall:
Here’s an excellent example of Jakucionis’s dribbling skill when he controls the ball, throwing the ball out in front of him to split two defenders. He finishes off of one foot, scooping the ball in with a soft touch:
Flashes of play that show Kasparas is NBA ready
Jakucionis is a pick-and-roll maestro, elite at creating great looks with a screen. His driving directly aids his passing, as Jakucionis opens up easier passing windows when he forces defenders to help and rotate. In this next clip, he wins off of the dribble, attracts help and lays it down to his big:
Defenses often hard hedge or outright blitz Jakucionis because of how threatening a shooter and passer he is. He counters these situations well for his age, leading his roller into space with this pass over the top here:
He’s an incredibly quick processor of the game, reading defensive coverages and rotations at a veteran pace. Illinois calls a screen with another guard, Kylan Boswell, who Jakucionis finds on the roll:
Jakucionis prefers passing to the interior as opposed to passing for weak corner threes on pick and rolls, as a high 45.8% of his assists have resulted in two-pointers. Jakucionis could have possibly hit the corner, but he chose to pass to the roller on this play:
The offense will form the foundation of Jakucionis’s case as a top prospect, but he’ll need to improve defensively to hang in the NBA. We do see plenty of high-octane primaries who struggle on defense (Trae Young, Tyrese Haliburton, Damian Lillard, etc) but those players must reach a high bar on offense. Jakucionis could get there, but it’s far from a guarantee.
He especially struggles to defend screens, where stronger bigs wall him off. Jakucionis almost always fights to recover and contest, but his effort often isn’t enough to thwart a good shot:
When the initial screen doesn’t catch Jakucionis, his agility and lateral quickness let him survive on the ball. Here’s a nice example of that, with Jakucionis attaching against the screen and contesting the shot into a miss:
Even when Jakucionis manages to stay in front, taller players will be able to shoot and score over him. When he switches on to bigger defenders, teams will hunt him down low:
If Jakucionis continues to stack games like this, he’ll continue to rise on draft boards. His blend of creation, shotmaking and passing are all phenomenal and give him a legitimate star upside at the next level.