Kawhi Leonard's injury's impact on the LA Clippers and rest of the NBA: Analyzing potential scenarios for the upcoming 2021 offseason
It will be another case of what could have been for the LA Clippers heading into the offseason after Kawhi Leonard's injury in their semifinal series with the Utah Jazz thwarted their attempts to win a first championship. Although Paul George and Reggie Jackson helped carry the Clippers into the Conference Finals, they didn't have enough to overcome the Phoenix Suns' array of scoring talent and strong defense.
Leonard will be frustrated too. The 30-year-old had another solid season, averaging 24.8 points, 6.5 rebounds and 5.2 assists while shooting close to 50-40-90 during the campaign. When his playoffs ended, he was on course to equalling his most-effective postseason, having shot at 57% from the field and putting up over 30 points per night.
At the time of his injury, the LA Clippers did not offer much in the way of a diagnosis beyond it being a knee sprain. However, he was held out of their final eight games in the postseason and only on Tuesday did the organization announce he had had surgery to repair a partially torn ACL.
After the announcement, rumors regarding his future went into overdrive, as well as what it means for both him and the LA Clippers, which we will dive into in this article.
What should Kawhi Leonard do this summer?
Upon signing his two-year deal with the LA Clippers in 2019, Kawhi Leonard was giving himself financial empowerment going into the 2021 offseason. It gave him enough flexibility for his future and allowed him to see what the team could achieve on the court in a sufficient time-frame to analyze. Now Leonard has a choice: opt into his player option and stay with the organization or test the market this summer.
Having played for ten years in the NBA, Leonard is now eligible to sign the highest-possible max contract, 35% above the salary cap, whether that be with the LA Clippers or not. However, if he stays with the franchise, he would be eligible to sign a five-year deal next summer worth almost $100m more than the four-year contract he can sign in the coming months with the Clippers or any other team.
That is where the headache creeps in for Kawhi Leonard. For how long will his superstar standing hold? Were he to opt into his player option this year and hardly feature next season, his worth could go down. It would fall significantly if he were to re-injure the same knee.
If he wants financial security now, a four-year deal using his early bird rights with the LA Clippers could be available. Likewise, he could go elsewhere for the same number of years, only on $7m less overall. We only have to look at the Brooklyn Nets' faith in Kevin Durant to return to his All-Star ability following his ACL injury which, it should be noted, was worse than Kawhi's in severity.
Leonard may have lost trust in the LA Clippers, particularly their medical team, for wrongly diagnosing his injury. However, sticking to the course and opting into his player option with the franchise currently seems like the best option. It still gives him flexibility next year with his impending max contract and, should he return midway through the campaign, gives him the opportunity to compete in the playoffs again.
Although he is an injury-prone player, Kawhi Leonard will still be one of the most coveted stars in the league with two-way ability and championship experience.
What is the LA Clippers' standpoint on Kawhi Leonard's situation?
The LA Clippers will be less conflicted in what they want to happen but are equally in a difficult situation. Understandably, they would prefer Leonard to opt into his player option, stay for another season and see how his performances are after returning from rehab. At which point, they can make a decision on whether to offer him a new deal or not.
Conversely, though, Kawhi Leonard may choose to opt out of his contract. This would simultaneously put the LA Clippers in the best position to offer him a larger deal than other teams, but also in a position where they could lose their best player, be unable to sign anybody to replace them and lose their status as contenders in next year's playoffs.
The LA Clippers simply don't have the financial flexibility to replace Kawhi Leonard, and therefore would have to get creative in the trade market to bring in another star alongside Paul George. Furthermore, without control of any of their first-round picks until 2026, losing the five-time All-Star would be the worst possible scenario for the organization's chances of creating a trade package or rebuilding.
How will the rest of the league react to Kawhi Leonard's injury?
For the rest of the NBA, Kawhi Leonard's decision will be one of the most important things to happen in a limited free agency class. If he opts out of his deal, there will be no shortage of possible suitors with the Dallas Mavericks and Miami Heat already involved in early rumors.
As mentioned earlier, Kevin Durant was able to return to an MVP-caliber level of performance this year after missing a full season. His teammate at the Brooklyn Nets, Spencer Dinwiddie, suffered a partially torn ACL similar to Kawhi Leonard's and reportedly could have been ready to return if they had made it to the NBA Finals.
That puts Leonard's return at roughly the halfway point of the 2021-22 campaign with ample time to get up to speed prior to the playoffs. His pedigree is well worth the gamble for teams who need a leader on both ends of the court and those who have championship experience. Leonard once again made it into the NBA's All-Defensive second-team this year and is a two-time Defensive Player of the Year and Finals MVP.
Knowing what Kawhi Leonard will do, though, is extremely difficult to call both for fans and for other teams in the NBA. While they will be readying themselves for the possibility that he could be coming onto the market, they won't get their hopes up. Time will tell, but the LA Clippers will certainly be hoping he does choose to return.