NBA 2018-19: 5 Most Ridiculous Vegas Over/Under Odds
Like in every summer, after teams finish their main offseason moves, the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook publishes its over/under odds for win totals ahead of the upcoming season. The numbers listed by Westgate, one of the senior sports books in Vegas, aim to predict the likely win total of a team, based on their how their roster took shape during the summer.
But they're not always so close to the eventual number.
Last year, for example, Indiana's win over/under stood at 30.5, probably affected by the Paul George trade. Vegas odd-makers couldn’t predict Victor Oladipo's meteoric rise that led the Pacers to a 48 win total. On the other hand, they also overestimated Memphis' odds. Their over/under was set at 38.5 before the season, but thanks to the season-ending injury to Mike Conley, the Grizzlies won just 22 games.
However, the numbers are not always supposed to reflect a team's realistic potential; they are often influenced by flashy offseason moves that change public opinion. A betting establishment's main objective is to make more people place their bets with them, so when a high profile player changes teams and creates buzz, odds will swing to attract additional gamblers.
So with the official over/under odds in, let's assess which teams will finish with a win total far from the one suggested by the sports book.
#1 Cleveland Cavaliers - 30.5, Over
This is the classic case of overreaction to a free agent signing, leading to a radical over/under drop.
LeBron's decision to leave Cleveland Cavaliers sent the NBA world into a frenzy, and that includes Las Vegas. People were immediately thrown back to the summer of 2010 when LeBron left the Cavs for the first time. Despite Dan Gilbert's claims, saying Cleveland will win a title before LeBron will in Miami, the Cavaliers quickly became the worst team in the league. Many people figured this will happen again this year, hence Westgate's attempt to capitalize.
However, Cleveland is in a very different situation. Back then, the Cavaliers were a failing franchise and their best player was a 34-year-old Antawn Jamison. Today, they are former NBA champions and are led by an All-Star caliber player, Kevin Love, and a promising rookie, Colin Sexton.
Yes, LeBron's departure will cost the Cavs more than a few wins, but they won't be as bad as this over/under implies. They will try to contend for a playoff spot and are more likely to finish around 40 wins in a weak Eastern Conference.