NBA 2023 Lottery odds for no.1 pick explored

The NBA draft lottery is on Tuesday, airing at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN. It can also be streamed on WatchESPN, the ESPN app or SlingTV.

The lottery balls will be revealed in the televised ceremony by NBA deputy commissioner Mark Tatum. The draft lottery determines who gets the first four picks. The remainder of the 14 lottery teams are then put in position by regular season record, with the worst team remaining picking at fifth and the best record picking at 14th.

Who will win the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes? 👀

2023 NBA draft lottery | 8 PM ET on ESPN 📺 https://t.co/x0mfkhAkxV

Which teams are in the lottery?

The draft lottery comprises the 14 teams that did not make the playoffs. That includes the Chicago Bulls, Toronto Raptors, OKC Thunder and New Orleans Pelicans, who lost in the play-in tournament.

Here are the lottery odds for each team.

TEAM | RECORD WIN% | LOTTERY PROBABILITY

Detroit | 17-65 | .207 | 14.0%

Houston | 22-60 | .268| 14.0%

San Antonio | 22-60 | .268 | 14.0%

Charlotte | 27-55 | .329 | 12.5%

Portland | 33-49 | .402 | 10.5%

Orlando | 34-48 | .415 | 9.0%

Indiana | 35-47 | .427 | 6.8%

Washington | 35-47 | .427 | 6.7%

Utah | 37-45 | .451 | 4.5%

Dallas | 38-44 | .463 | 3.0%

Chicago | 40-42 | .488 | 1.8%

Oklahoma City | 40-42 | .488 | 1.7%

Toronto | 41-41 | .500 | 1.0%

New Orleans | 42-40 | .512 | 0.5%

The lottery system was changed in 2019. The lottery now ensures that the team with the worst regular season record will pick no worse than fifth. The new system also levels the odds.

Below is the list of team representatives who will be in the lottery drawing room ⬇️ twitter.com/NBAPR/status/1… https://t.co/MWgvBYHwyJ

The team with the worst regular season record is no longer guaranteed to have the best odds for the No. 1 pick. Now the teams with the three worst records all have a 14% chance to secure the No. 1 pick.

Before the new system, the team with the worst record had a 25% chance of winning the lottery. The second had a 19.9% chance.

This year those three teams are the Detroit Pistons, San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets. The Charlotte Hornets are fourth at 12.5%.

The Orlando Magic won the lottery last season and drafted Paolo Banchero. Banchero won the 2022-23 Rookie of the Year. The Magic have won the lottery four times. They have a 9.0% chance to win this season.

A team with at least 14% odds to win the lottery has won in the past three years. In 2019, the New Orleans Pelicans shockingly won with 6.0% odds. The Pelicans selected Zion Williamson.

The draft lottery was first used in 1985. The team with the lowest odds to ever win the lottery were the Magic in 1993. They had a 1.5% chance to win and used the pick to draft Chris Webber. The Magic traded Webber for Penny Hardaway on draft night.