NBA playoff predictions: Heat, Spurs, Pacers and Clippers look set to dominate
The regular season is over. 14 teams have been sent packing. For the remaining 16 teams, every second, every quarter and every game of basketball matters. There’s no more talk about tanking for lottery picks, no more resting of star players. Gone are the days of burnt rubber matches. Elimination is now lurking over every team’s shoulder. It’s playoff time.
Playoffs are a yearly tradition in the NBA, but this year there are extra incentives. Can Tim Duncan win his fifth ring? Can LeBron James and the Miami Heat make it a three-peat? Can Kevin Durant cap off his MVP year with his first NBA title?
Before any of those historical milestones can be achieved the teams have pass the first hurdle in the run to the title. This is where championship hopefuls and aspiring Cinderellas come face-to-face in a fight to reach the next round.
So buckle up, as we break down each match-up, analysing each team’s strength and weakness, the X-factors and a prediction of the final outcome.
Eastern Conference
(1) Indiana Pacers vs. (8)Atlanta Hawks
Indiana Pacers vs. Atlanta Hawks
Regular Season Series: Split (2-2)
X-Factor: Indiana’s chemistry
Before the All-Star game, the Indiana Pacers were 40-12 and were sitting comfortably on top of the NBA. Since then they have been in free fall, and that makes them extremely difficult to predict. The Hawks generally play a small lineup which can cause some difficulties on match-ups for the Pacers. If Pero Antic can drag Roy Hibbert away from the basket and exploit Hibbert’s already tired legs, the Hawks can cause some upsets.
The most important wild-card and probably the deciding factor for the Pacers in the playoffs is their team chemistry. Lance Stephenson has become unpredictable, Paul George seems to be a shell of the player he was at the beginning of the season and George Hill seems to have lost confidence in his game.
If the Pacers can put their slide behind them, this is a cakewalk. The Hawks are the only team in the NBA playoffs that are below .500 thanks to the weak Eastern Conference and the Pacers still have the fourth best record in the NBA.
Atlanta doesn’t have the talent to pull off a upset on this Pacers team who, even if they are vulnerable, still have post-season experience and the defensive abilities to take care of the Hawks.
Why Indiana will win: Despite late-season troubles, the Pacers are simply the better team. Their bench is fortified, and their frontcourt size can easily overwhelm the Hawks, which is without several of its better center options (eg. Al Horford).
Why Atlanta will win: The Hawks have been playing better basketball down the stretch than the Pacers, which isn’t a great accomplishment. If Atlanta can steal a game or two at Indiana, where the Pacers have the best record in the NBA, they could create some unrest in the Indiana locker room.
Prediction: Pacers in 5.
(2)Miami Heat vs. (7)Charlotte Bobcats
Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Bobcats
Regular Season Series: Miami Heat won (4-0)
The X-Factor: The Switch
One might think that the Heat’s perfect record against the Bobcats tells us everything we need to know about how the match-up will be played out. But, as is the case with most regular-season Heat analysis, that undefeated mark doesn’t give us the complete picture.
Most likely, the pain for the Bobcats is going to get worse. The Miami Heat always seem to play their best basketball in the playoffs. No matter how they play in the regular season, as soon as the playoffs roll in it’s like the Heat players flip a switch. All the weaknesses the Heat seem to have during the regular season seem to vanish. They seem to play with a vengeance and a hunger that can only be quenched with a championship. In short, the Bobcats don’t stand a chance.
To be fair, they did force overtime on one encounter and lost by a point in another. So it’s not like the Heat blew out the Bobcats in all their encounters. But LeBron James scored 61 points the last time the two teams played and Dwyane Wade only played in 2 of the 4 encounters.
The Bobcats seem like the perfect Cinderella story, but they are nowhere ready to square off with the Heat in games that matter. And when that switch flips, the Bobcats would have no chance and would have to wait another year to win their first playoff game.
Why Miami will win: James is too much for anyone or even everyone on the Bobcats, despite Michael Kidd-Gilchrist’s defensive improvements. The Heat have the talent and the experience and the championships.
Why Charlotte will win: The Heat’s biggest weakness has been opposing post scorers, and few are better than Al Jefferson. Also, Kemba Walker should have a field day with Mario Chalmers. But the Bobcats need a miracle.
Prediction: Miami in 4.
(3)Toronto Raptors vs. (6)Brooklyn Nets
Toronto Raptors vs Brooklyn Nets
Regular Season Series: Split (2-2)
The X-Factor: The Backcourt Matchups
Kyle Lowry’s grudge might get even bigger when he faces Joe Johnson and the Brooklyn Nets. Johnson is the man who many feel occupied an All-Star spot that should have gone to Lowry this year.
The real focal point of the matchup will be in the backcourt, where Lowry and DeMar DeRozan’s youth and athleticism could pose problems for Deron Williams and Shaun Livingston. Brooklyn has an unusual style of play. They rely on postup play from their backcourt players. Against Lowry and DeRozan, an inside-out option may not be a great idea for the Nets. But the Nets have gone 20-11 and they have a roster that overflows with playoff experience.
Toss in the disrespect that Toronto feels after the Nets tanked their last match to avoid a first round matchup against the Chicago Bulls, and we are in for an entertaining series.
Why Toronto will win: The Raptors won the division because they have been the best-performing team in it without a doubt. Lowry and DeRozan provide athleticism the Nets will struggle to keep up with, and they have a stable of big men willing to bang it down low.
Why Brooklyn will win: The old guys can still play. Paul Pierce, Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, Kevin Garnett, Andrei Kirilenko and Shaun Livingston have tons of playoff experience and have been effective in the second half of the season. These guys joined forces with the clear goal of post-season success, and new head coach Jason Kidd has shown potential to put it all together. In the end, the Nets have playoff experience which is something the Raptors are severely lacking in.
Prediction: Nets in 7.
(4)Chicago Bulls vs. (5)Washington Wizards
Chicago Bulls vs. Washington Wizards
Regular Season Series: Washington Wizards (2-1)
The X-Factor: Nene
In the two games Nene was in the lineup against the Bulls this year, the Wizards won. In the game that he missed due to injury, the Wizards took an 18-point beating. Nene has been playing limited minutes in the past two weeks in an attempt to return to full fitness for the playoffs. He was effective in those short stints, but it’s hard to know how his knee will hold up if he’s asked to play major minutes. If healthy, Nene gives the Wizards interior scoring and size on defence, two things you need when you face the Bulls. If he can’t be a major contributor, the Bulls can absolutely stifle the Wizards’ otherwise bleak offence.
The Bulls are making another run at the playoffs without star Derrick Rose. Luckily for them, they still have players like Joakim Noah. Noah has been playing terrific basketball and is a likely Defensive Player of the Year. The Bulls know what it takes to win a series, unlike the inexperienced Wizards. In this case it’ll take a ruthless defensive attack willing to capitalize on a hobbled opponent, something the Bulls will be comfortable with.
Why Chicago will win: Their defence is relentless. John Wall will struggle to find breathing room, particularly on drives. Noah and Taj Gibson are going to make the paint a no-go area, and the Wizards’ three-point shooting can be a bit shaky. Coach Tom Thibodeau has more playoff experince and in-game acumen than the Wizards’ Randy Wittman.
Why Washington will win: They can score, which is something the Bulls have a hard time doing without Rose. The Wizards have a slight talent advantage over the Bulls, with John Wall and Bradley Beal taking care of the scoring. Also, Marcin Gortat and Nene give the Wizards the size to cover Noah and Gibson occupied.
Prediction: Bulls in 6.