NBA Playoffs 2021: Analyzing Golden State Warriors' playoff chances
The Golden State Warriors have had one of their most inconsistent seasons in years.
After going to the NBA Finals for five straight seasons and seemingly tanking the next campaign, a lot was expected from the two-time MVP Stephen Curry and his team. However, the Golden State Warriors' 2020-21 season has been plagued by injuries, and the team is struggling to qualify for the postseason.
They are now in eighth place in the Western Conference and would take part in the play-in tournament for a berth in the playoffs. The 7th and 8th seed fight for the 7th spot, the loser of that match plays the winner of the 9th and 10th seed for the final 8th spot.
On that note, let's analyse the playoff chances of the Golden State Warriors and how far they could go in the postseason.
Golden State Warriors' 2021 NBA season run-in
In their final five games of the season, the Golden State Warriors face the OKC Thunder, Utah Jazz, Phoenix Suns, New Orleans Pelicans and Memphis Grizzlies, all at home.
The Warriors are 33-33 at the moment and are four games behind the LA Lakers (7th) and two ahead of the Memphis Grizzlies (9th). They would need to go 3-2 or 4-1 to maintain their 8th seed spot, as the Grizzlies have an easier schedule and have a stronger chance of getting wins than the Warriors.
The OKC Thunder are on a rebuild, and the Golden State Warriors have had two blowout wins the two times they've met this season. It is a safe bet to say that the Dubs could win their next one as well.
The Utah Jazz and Phoenix Suns are on a roll, having won five of their last six games. Considering the Golden State Warriors lose to the table-topping Jazz and the Suns, they cannot afford to drop one against the Grizzlies, who are lurking behind them for the 8th seed.
The Golden State Warriors have traded one loss and win apiece with the Grizzlies and Pelicans, respectively. So these two games will be the tie-breakers for both the season series. The Warriors have a higher chance of winning both matchups.
Golden State Warriors' Play-in and NBA Playoffs chances
It is a common perception among analysts and teams that whoever falls into the play-in tournament would not want to face the Golden State Warriors.
Famous NBA analysts like Dan Patrick, Shannon Sharpe, Stephen A. Smith, Chris Broussard and many others have said that it would be a 'nightmare matchup' to go up against Stephen Curry, who could get extremely hot and eliminate practically any team from postseason reckoning.
Either the LA Lakers or Portland Trail Blazers could face Curry and the Golden State Warriors in the first play-in game. The consensus around the league is that one crazy shooting night for Curry could wreck the opponents' 72-game season.
If the standings stay as they are, the Golden State Warriors will face LeBron James and the LA Lakers in the opening round of the play-in tournament. Considering they win against the LA Lakers, who are reeling from injury, they would grab the 7th seed in the final playoff bracket.
If the Golden State Warriors lose against the Lakers, they would have another shot at the playoffs, as they'll face the winner of the 'Grizzlies vs Spurs' play-in matchup.
The Warriors have a higher chance of beating whoever comes out of the 9th-10th play-in. The San Antonio Spurs face an extremely tough schedule in their final six games and have been losing consistently. There is a possibility that they could drop out of the 10th seed altogether and the Pelicans sneak into the play-in tournament. That's a scenario that could augur well for the Golden State Warriors' postseason hopes.
For the 2021 NBA Playoffs, if the Warriors have the 7th seed, they could go up against the Utah Jazz. Realistically, the Jazz would eliminate the inconsistent Warriors in the first round without breaking a sweat. However, the Jazz have no deep playoff experience and have not fared well in close-game scenarios.
It isn't far-fetched to imagine that the Golden State Warriors could pull off an upset if they face the Jazz.
Also Read: Why the Utah Jazz are destined for an early playoff exit despite an emphatic regular season | 2020-21 NBA Season.
In the other scenario where the Golden State Warriors are the 8th seed, they would take on the Phoenix Suns, which would be a horrible matchup for the Warriors. The Suns are led by Chris Paul, a veteran point guard with playoff experience, and they have a higher chance of a deep playoff run compared to the Utah Jazz.
Although, other than Paul, the rest of the roster would have their first taste of playoffs action.
Devin Booker, the highest scorer on the Suns and Deandre Ayton, the Suns' starting center, might crumble in their first playoff experience. So the Golden State Warriors would fancy their chances of becoming only the sixth 8th-seed ever to topple the 1st seed in NBA Playoff history.
However, given how the Warriors have tended to crumble under fourth-quarter pressure themselves, their chances of a playoff upset do not look very high.
Golden State Warriors' chances in the NBA Playoffs
The Golden State Warriors' playoff chances would basically boil down to how Stephen Curry's supporting cast fares.
Other than Draymond Green and Andrew Wiggins, no player has shown signs of consistency. The Warriors' roster has faced a bevy of injuries as well. Klay Thompson didn't start the season due to an Achilles tear in the off-season. Rookie center James Wiseman suffered a season-ending injury, while Kelly Oubre Jr. broke his wrist earlier this month.
Kelly Oubre is expected to be back by the time the play-in tournament rolls around, but till that time, the Warriors would have had to contend with an eight-man rotation.
En route to their 33 wins this season, the Golden State Warriors have either blown away teams by big margins, or they capitalized on their opponent missing key players.
In close game scenarios, the Golden State Warriors have, more often than not, crumbled. Their losses against the supposedly lesser teams have come due to the Warriors' inability to hold on to leads when the starters were given rest.
As the team commentators like to call them 'non-Curry minutes', the Golden State Warriors bench is simply far too inexperienced to maintain their own lead or cut down the opposition's lead. That would be a nightmare in a playoff situation where the game is essentially played in a halfcourt setting, and the scores are always close.
The Golden State Warriors offense runs through Stephen Curry. Even if a play is not designed to get Curry a shot, he is often a decoy to get somebody else open.
Stephen Curry draws double and triple teams with ease and that usually gets a teammate an open look. The other Warriors players should capitalise in that situation. But more often than not, they fail to get a bucket, and the offensive responsibility falls on Curry's shoulders again.
This type of offensive strategy would simply not work in the playoffs, where the opposition's main goal would be to trap Stephen Curry. Simply put, stop Curry from going off, and the Golden State Warriors could possibly crumble.
However, Draymond Green is putting on a playmaking clinic this season. His passes to Curry are something to behold, and he is leading the league in passes to one particular teammate.
No two players share a connection like Green and Curry. Their non-verbal communication and chemistry is other-worldly, as the two always seem to know where the other would be or is trying to do. The two have incredible playoff experience, having gone to five straight finals together. Green's game almost always elevates in the playoffs, so he isn't a point of concern.
Andrew Wiggins has been incredible in the second half of the season. He is averaging 20 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 1.2 steals per game since the All-Star break and is the second-best scorer in the team. He is shooting a career-high 41.6% from the three since the break and is often the player to take charge late in games when Curry's shots aren't falling or he is double-teamed.
Meanwhile, Kelly Oubre Jr. has been great since he accepted a bench role. He provides a scoring punch for the second unit in the starters' absence, and his hustle and defensive mentality has been extremely beneficial for the Golden State Warriors. However, he's been injured for a while now, and his return date is unknown, although he is expected to return before the play-in game.
Their other auxiliary players - Kent Bazemore, Mychal Mulder, Juan Toscano-Anderson and Jordan Poole - are all inconsistent and not trustworthy in a crunch time playoff scenario.
Juan Toscano-Anderson and Mychal Mulder have shown bursts of good shooting and hustle. They are both good defenders and provide the team with fresh legs. The only other player who is expected to make a significant impact for the team is Kevon Looney, who has played in multiple big games for the Golden State Warriors. He has great chemistry with Curry and Green and has shown tremendous improvement this season.
To conclude, the Golden State Warriors have a strong chance to make the playoffs but are possibly looking at a first-round exit.
Also Read: Stephen Curry for MVP: Does the Golden State Warriors' talisman stand a chance of winning the award?