NBA Starting Lineups and Match Prediction - Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks
This game between the Bucks and the Heat may be a playoff first-round matchup in the Eastern Conference. The Bucks are 53-19 for the season which is best in the Association as well as the Eastern Conference. They are 28-6 at home although they are 5-5 in their last 10 games overall. The Bucks lost their last game 107-102 on the road in Cleveland.
Friday night may provide the Miami Heat with a break. Giannis Antetokounmpo missed the Bucks' loss on Wednesday night to Cleveland due to an ankle injury and may miss this game as well. The Heat, who are 8th overall in the Eastern Conference, actually have a winning record on the road at 18-16 but are 35-36 overall. The last time these two teams played, in Miami on March 15th, 2019, the Heat lost 113-98 and Antetokounmpo scored 33 points. The Heat have won their last three road games against the Hornets, Thunder, and Spurs.
Milwaukee Bucks Starters:
Mike Bundenholzer will likely start G-Tony Snell, G-Eric Bledsoe, F-Khris Middleton, Ersan Ilyasova, and C-Brook Lopez.
Miami Heat Starters:
Eric Spoelstra is likely to start G-Josh Richardson, G-Dion Waiters, C-Bam Adebayo, F-Kelly Olynyk and F-Derrick Jones Jr.
Expectations, Why, and Prediction:
Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has a sprained ankle and missed the Bucks' last two games, has been working out with the team. With just 10 games left to play and a record of 53-19 for first in the NBA, expect the Bucks to rest Antetokounmpo against Miami. The Bucks lost to Cleveland without their star. Since Miami are a stronger team than the Cavaliers and decent on the road, the Heat will provide the Bucks a tough test without Antetokounmpo.
While the Miami Heat are 27th in the NBA in scoring at 106ppg, they have won their last three road games. In those three games, The Heat averaged 105.7ppg. While they are scoring less than their average, they have held their opponents to 98.7ppg in that period which is nearly 7 points below their opponents’ season average of 105.7ppg
The Heat do have 8 different double-digit scorers this season but none have an average more than 20 points. Expect them to score by committee. Josh Richardson averages 16.8, the highest on the team, but there isn’t really a dominant consistent clutch scorer on the Heat. Richardson has 31 points in the Heat’s last 3 games.
In the last match at the American Airlines Arena between these two teams, the Bucks scored 71 second-half points to the Heat’s 36 on their way to a 113-98 victory. The Bucks have still managed to score 108 plus points in the last two games the Greek Freak has missed. Overall, the Bucks are 2nd in the NBA, averaging 117.4ppg.
Another area of this game that may be dramatically affected is points in the paint. The Bucks averaged 53.6ppg in the paint for third in the NBA. Miami are 13th, averaging 48.9ppg in the paint. If you remove Antetokounmpo's 17.5 points in the paint per game, then the Bucks are averaging just 35 per game.
This game means more to the Heat than it does the Bucks. It quite possibly is a first-round series in the playoffs. If Antetokounmpo doesn’t play, the Heat could beat the Bucks at home. If Antetokounmpo plays, the Bucks are a significantly better team. While the Bucks are 28-6 at home, the Heat are 18-16 on the road. Expect Antetokounmpo to be rested on Friday night and the Heat could steal another road victory by 3 points.