NCAA Men's basketball: Derik Queen and Danny Wolf rise, Jalil Bethea and Hunter Sallis fall
Nearly 10 games into the college basketball season, we’re learning more about who teams and players truly are. The sample size here is still quite small, but some players have roared out of the gate and some haven’t reached top speed yet.
NBA scouts will pay close attention to this early portion of the schedule, especially evaluating how players fare in new situations. Nothing is set in stone, but prospect stock has begun to fluctuate. Let’s discuss three more risers and three more fallers for the 2025 NBA Draft.
Stock UP
Derik Queen, Maryland
Despite thriving on a juggernaut Montverde team, many draft boards didn’t feature Queen at all. Some believed (myself included, hand up), that Queen’s post-centric style wouldn’t translate effectively to the NBA. To this point, Queen has done all he can to quell those worries.
He’s averaging 17.5 points, 8.7 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game on a scorching 65.4% true shooting percentage. Queen’s +12.8 Box Plus-Minus leads all freshmen and ranks seventh in the country among all players. College defenders haven’t been able to stop Queen from creating easy advantages to score in the paint. He’s made an absurd 81.2% of his shots at the rim so far with nearly 60% of those being unassisted.
Queen still must prove he can space the floor and defend with consistent effort, but his special traits are evident. Even considering those weaknesses, Queen’s driving creation, scoring touch and creative passing are all rare among freshmen. He should be discussed as a lottery-level talent to this point, if not higher.
Danny Wolf, Maryland
The evolution of basketball has brought a proliferation of big-man ballhandlers. Danny Wolf, a Yale transfer, embodies this more than most centers, even the aforementioned Derik Queen. His most frequent play type this season comes as a pick-and-roll ballhandler. Wolf orchestrates offense from the perimeter from the Wolverines.
His handle lets him navigate screens and score in space at the rim and in the intermediate area. Elite ball skills and excellent vision allow Wolf to pick players out in the pick-and-roll and spray passes all over the floor. Wolf is a strong defender as well, posting an excellent steal rate (2.4%) and block rate (5.7%) so far this season.
Wolf doesn’t defend the paint like a typical center, though, and is turning the ball over at historically high rates (30% turnover rate). Scouts will question his translation to the NBA and whether or not his handling role can work against pro-level athletes. He’s undeniably a unique talent worth NBA consideration given his fit in many modern offenses as an oversized fulcrum.
Chaz Lanier, Tennessee
Lanier followed Dalton Knecht’s footsteps this season, transferring to Tennessee from a mid-major school and immediately thriving. He’s the focal point of their offense, averaging 19.1 points per game on a 63.2% true shooting mark for an undefeated Volunteers team.
Shooting is Lanier’s primary NBA skill — he’s shooting 48.6% from deep on absurdly high volume (17.2 3-point attempts per 100 possessions). Lanier’s shooting success isn’t surprising given his sparking career numbers, making 42% of 9.7 threes per 100 possessions while shooting 85.6% at the line across his 104 college games.
He makes solid decisions with the ball and has a quick first step despite some of his rim aversion, which could be a problem at the next level. Lanier’s power and athletic deficiencies may scare some teams off as a 24-year-old draftee, but he’s clearly an NBA-level shotmaking talent with enough ancillary skill to work his way onto a roster.
Stock DOWN
Jalil Bethea, Miami
Bethea broke out on the EYBL circuit two summers ago, establishing himself as a premier offensive talent. His versatile shotmaking, athleticism and passing flashes all made scouts consider him a likely one-and-done. But he’s barely seen the floor for the Hurricanes, playing 12.2 minutes per game.
He hasn’t shot the ball well in his limited time, converting 29.6% of his 3s (8-27). Bethea hasn’t found his rhythm but he hasn’t had the chance to play himself into form. With Bethea nearly out of Miami’s rotation to this point, some scouts and teams will likely remove him from draft consideration this season.
His talent level still suggests Bethea can play and thrive in the NBA and it wouldn’t be shocking to see Bethea transfer after this season and re-enter lottery discussion. For the moment, though, Bethea must play more minutes before he can return to serious first-round prospect status.
Mark Sears, Alabama
Many thought Mark Sears could become the best player in the nation this season after a spectacular 2024. He hasn’t reached those heights yet for Alabama, seeing declines in his scoring (16.4 points per game), 3-point shooting (28.8%) and true shooting (44.9%) from last season.
Tall, long defenders have given the diminutive Sears more trouble than ever. Hovering around six feet tall, Sears must play like an exceptional offensive talent to make and stick in the NBA. His finishing has been worse than ever so far this season, making 48.9% of his shots at the rim.
Sears could bounce back as a scorer given his past play, which would help scouts have more confidence in his translation. Life as a small guard in the NBA is a challenge even for the best ones. His margin for error will be razor thin if he hopes to be a first-round pick, making Sears’ return to dominating college basketball even more critical than many other prospects.
Hunter Sallis, Wake Forest
Many scouts considered Sallis a fringe first-round caliber prospect last season and he returned to Wake Forest to hopefully boost his stock. Sallis built his case on his massive offensive improvement but hasn’t kept that up this season.
Similar to Sears, Sallis’s production has dropped in his points per game (16.3), 3-point percentage (24.6%) and true shooting (51%). There’s a good chance Sallis will bounce back from deep given his great free-throw shooting (85.1%) and prior shooting success.
For a defensively slanted guard like Sallis, that complementary shooting threat will be key for earning a rotation slot. The NBA values 3-and-D guards and Sallis theoretically fits that archetype but must prove himself a reliable offensive player first to become a first-round pick.