NCAA Men's basketball: Risers and Fallers ft. Egor Demin and VJ Edgecombe
Each new college season brings a wealth of information on the next crop of NBA draft prospects. We’re finally seeing high-school and international stars play at the college level and this year’s freshman class is as stacked as ever.
It’s not only freshmen making noise, though, as returning players are establishing their college superstardom. Let’s take stock of a few prospects who have improved their standing for the 2025 draft and a few who may be on the decline.
As a reminder, the takeaways from these early season games are a very small sample and there’s wonkiness baked in. Still, we can begin to learn about prospects, often in a new situation in the case of freshmen.
NCAA College basketball players whose STOCK is UP
1. Egor Demin, BYU
Demin’s strong early-season play has vaulted him into top-five pick discussions in a loaded 2025 draft class. He’s been a dominant offensive force for the Cougars, averaging 17 points and 7.5 assists per game on 74.3% true shooting. Demin passes with incredible flare and control, dictating games with an advanced feel in the half-court and in transition.
Critically, Demin has begun the season creating advantages and making plays on defense. He’s posting a 3.5% block rate and 4.2% steal rate. He’s torching defenders in the paint (86.7%), attempting 36.5% of his shots at the rim. Demin looks the part athletically in a way he did not always perform in the past.
It’s important to note BYU’s level of competition — they haven’t faced a team inside the top 130 of Kenpom’s team rankings. But Demin is dominating lower-level opponents like a future NBA star should. If he maintains his performance against Big 12 opponents, Demin could see his name called extremely early on draft night in 2025.
2. Kam Jones, Marquette
After a junior season where Jones established himself as a worthy pro prospect, he’s leveled up early in his senior season. He’s playing like one of college basketball’s best players, averaging 24 points and five assists per game on 73.7% true shooting. A true primary initiator, Jones’s shooting, driving, and playmaking all profile him as a future NBA guard.
Beyond his gaudy scoring numbers, Jones seems to have improved in a few critical areas surrounding his physical and athletic translation. Jones has always struggled to get to the free-throw line, posting a sub-17 free-throw rate in all three of his first seasons. Through four games, Jones’s 25.9 free-throw rate is a significant improvement.
Jones is still an advantage creation machine, weaponizing his burst and handling creativity to score and make plays for his teammates (37.1% assist rate). He’s competing on defense, rounding out an extremely promising start to the year. He’s playing like a surefire first-round pick right now.
3. Yaxel Lendeborg, UAB
Deeper scouting circles have discussed Lendeborg for a while now due to his sturdy defensive profile. The 6’9 forward has taken an offensive leap to begin, upping his per-game scoring from 13.8 points last season to 20.5 (62.7% true shooting) through four games.
Lendeborg has more than doubled his three-point volume from last year (2.0 to 5.1 attempts per 100 possessions). That’s an important indicator for shooting upside and Lendeborg will need to shoot at a passable level to thrive as a three-and-D forward at the NBA level.
On the defensive end, Lendeborg’s size, lateral quickness, strength and playmaking ability (7.3% block rate, 3.8% steal rate) bode well for his future defensive success. Proving he can shoot at a passable level and expand his offensive skillset will help convince NBA teams to draft Lendeborg in 2025.
NCAA College basketball players whose STOCK is DOWN
1. VJ Edgecombe, Baylor
Edgecombe bounced back after a disastrous debut against Gonzaga, but his first act in college has been slightly disappointing for a perceived top-three pick contender. His offensive production, notably his scoring and creation, hasn’t translated to the college game yet — 9.3 points on 40.2% true shooting so far.
He’s a violent rebounder with a positive playmaking feel, but Edgecombe’s handle and driving hold back his offense. Without a controlled dribble or seasoned slashing instincts, Edgecombe struggles to maximize his elite athletic tools.
His defensive production so far has been excellent (4.7% block rate, 3.1% steal rate). On the whole, Edgecombe has been quite good compared to the average freshman on account of his defense, passing and athletic flashes. But for a top-five pick and projected NBA lead guard prospect, he’ll need to prove himself a more capable on-ball creator.
2. Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina
Similarly to Edgecombe, Murray-Boyles’s overall performance on the year has been acceptable. He’s scoring a ton on strong efficiency (20.3 points per game, 66.4% true shooting) through his first three games. His defense is as disruptive and versatile as ever. But Murray-Boyles doesn’t seem to be improving in ways scouts had hoped.
As a 6’7 big man, Murray-Boyles must improve his shooting to reach his eventual NBA ceiling. Some hoped Murray-Boyles would expand his range this season after missing all five of his threes last year. That hasn’t happened yet, as Murray-Boyles hasn’t attempted a three-pointer yet.
He’s turning the ball over and fouling at higher rates than he did last year. Again, Murray-Boyles' play makes sense as the offensive focal point for South Carolina. For Murray-Boyles to leap into the top 10 in 2025, he’ll need to inspire some confidence that he can eventually expand his range.
3. Liam McNeeley, UConn
On the surface, McNeeley’s early season profile might not peg him as a stock faller. He’s averaging a sturdy 14.3 points and eight rebounds per game (63.9% true shooting), making seven of his first 17 three-pointers (41.2%, 11.4 attempts per 100).
But outside of his shooting, McNeeley hasn’t done much else to cement himself as a future top-10 pick. He’s struggling to stand out athletically against lower-level competition, unable to create consistent separation on the ball. All three of UConn’s opponents so far rank outside of Kenpom’s top 300.
McNeeley hasn’t been generating turnovers either (1.3% steal and block rate). His shooting at 6’7 should be enough to have him picked in the first round. But in a class loaded with elite shooters (Kon Knueppel, Tre Johnson, Ace Bailey, Jail Bethea and more), McNeeley must show more defensive and ancillary offensive chops to warrant a top-10 selection.