"It's going to be between Alex Sarr and Zaccharie Risacher": NBA executives' predictions for the 2024 NBA Draft class (Exclusive)
This year, the adrenaline rush over selecting an NBA lottery pick may fade shortly after they step off the stage.
“There is no clear player at the top of the draft with star potential,” one NBA executive told Sportskeeda.
Unlike last year when the San Antonio Spurs selected Victor Wembanyama with their No. 1 pick, the Atlanta Hawks (No. 1) and Washington Wizards (No. 2) likely won’t pick a player that fundamentally transforms their franchise. Nonetheless, one NBA scout told Sportskeeda that he still considered the draft class to be strong because of its depth.
They dished on why there’s not a clear No. 1 pick, which American and international prospects can make the biggest impact, if Zach Edey’s game can translate into the NBA and more.
Editor’s note: The following one-on-one interviews have been edited and condensed. The interviews were all conducted separately.
Is there a clear No. 1 pick?
NBA executive: “No, I don’t think so. I don’t think it’s going to come clear for any of those guys. But I think it’s going to come down to two or three guys, for sure. I don’t think there is a clear cut No. 1. It’s going to be between two guys outside of the United States – Alex Sarr and [Zaccharie] Risacher. I think the third one will probably either Donovan Clingan or Reed Sheppard. The sleeper guy for me in the top five is Stephon Castle. This is all from what we’ve seen from what we’re playing. For Sarr, everyone is looking for stretch bigs that can shoot. Everybody would like to have a Naz Reid type of player. That’s what you’re seeing in Alex Sarr – he’s a stretch big and a seven footer. He has some talent and athletic ability. Risacher is a young, 6’8 or 6’9 guy that can really shoot the basketball. You have a forward that can stretch the floor and shoot the ball with range that has really good size. And Reed Sheppard is the best shooter in college basketball, period. The shooting is really real. Everybody wants that. You get past the size that he has, but athletically he has tested out great. Defensively, people say it’s going to be a problem, but he was one of the top steals guys in college basketball. You get a great kid and it comes from good genes and pedigree. The shooting is so real. It’s unbelievable. He shoots it deep. He shoots it off the bounce. He’s the best shooter in the draft, bar none.”
NBA executive #2: “What we’re learning is through the combine and the workouts, there is no clear player at the top of the draft with star potential. Somebody will, of course, become a star. It happens in every draft. But sometimes the star is drafted in the 40s like Nikola Jokic. Sometimes the star is drafted in the teens like Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and Giannis Antetokounmpo. You don’t know where the star is coming from, but there is one in this draft. There isn’t an obvious one at the top of the draft. That presents a real challenge for teams.”
NBA scout/consultant: “Nope. Almost every year, it’s going to be beauty is in the eye of the beholder. There’s two guys at the top with Zaccharie Risacher and Alexandre Sarr. You have two big potential big guys that are different types of players that can be upside guys. That’s in tune with what we have in this draft overall. I went over to Europe this year to get a look at some of these players. With Risacher, he was sort of underwhelming at the Under-19 World Championships. The knock on him was that he didn’t play hard. But I think you have a guy that can be a potential 3-and-D guy that can shoot the ball. This year, when I saw him through film, he went through a dip where he wasn’t playing well. That happens. But he bounced back, too. During that time, he was playing well on the defensive end even though his shots weren’t hitting. But you have the potential with a guy that has all the athletic tools to be a 3-and-D guy. That’s hard to find at that type of level.”
Which international prospect will make the biggest impact?
NBA executive #1: “Sarr with his size. If you really believe he can shoot the ball, with his athletic mobility, he has probably the best upside out of all of them. That’s just because of his pure size. He’s seven feet tall and can shoot the basketball. If he reaches his potential, it’s going to be a lot better than a 6’9 forward (Risacher) and a big point guard (Nikola Topić).”
NBA scout/consultant: “You’d have to take Risacher and Sarr because they’re going to be on teams that give them immediate playing time. You also have to look at [Matas] Buzelis that can come in as a 6’10”, versatile forward that will get a lot of playing time. It really depends on the team. Atlanta has a decent team. So if Risacher or Sarr get on there, are they going to get more playing time? What will happen with the rumors of the two trades with the guards over there (Trae Young, Dejounte Murray)?”
Which American prospect will make the biggest impact?
NBA executive #1: “[Dalton] Knecht from Tennessee because he can shoot. He’s got a scorer’s mentality. He believes that the next shot is going in. He’s got good size. So I think he’s the guy, because of his age, that can probably be put in a game tomorrow. He can actually play. I still think Castle on the defensive end of the floor can do some of the things that Cason Wallace did for Oklahoma City. I think Castle is going to be better than Cason Wallace. But that’s the kind of guy, that if you had to do a comparable, it would be him. Probably the other two would be Sheppard because of the shooting and [Donovan] Clingan because of his size. The guy is massive. He’s a defensive rim protector, and everyone is looking for one of those guys.”
NBA scout/consultant: “I like Reed Sheppard. I’ve gotten to see him quite a bit. There are questions about the players’ defensive ability and quickness. But when Reed came in and tested, he tested off the charts. We knew he could get in the paint, shoot off the dribble and elevate. He can make contested 3s. It’s unbelievable. He’s going to be one of the best shooters possibly in basketball that might compare to Steph Curry. But is he going to be able to get those shots? Is he going to be able to be a playmaking guard? I remember watching Steph Curry in Serbia at the U-19 worlds. There were a few guards on the team, and he was running the point. I knew then he had the opportunity and ability. I feel the same way about Reed and his other intangibles – his professionalism to the game, the knowledge and IQ. So I think it’ll be him.”
What’s your outlook on Nikola Topić’s trajectory amid his injury
?
NBA executive #1: He’s probably the best pure point guard. He’s more of a facilitator. He has great size. He has great vision. He has to be a better shooter and a better finisher around the basket. He’s not a great athlete. Defensively, he needs to get better. But as far as his IQ, size and passing and running a team, he can do all of that. It’s just the shooting and the defense that are concerns. But that’ll come along. He’s a worker and a great kid.”
NBA scout/consultant: “I like him despite his knee injury. I like the way he runs the floor. He has great size for a point guard. Before his injury, he was averaging 19 points, seven assists and rebounding really well. In those leagues, that doesn’t happen a lot. After he transferred [from Mega MIS to Red Star Belgrad], he started doing the same thing before tweaking that knee again. I wonder if teams will get his true medicals on him. If teams saw him early [before his injuries], maybe they’ll take that risk if it’s not a serious injury. If it’s more serious and you don’t have confidence in his ability, then he’s going to drop. Someone like Reed Sheppard could go in at No. 3. [Tidjane] Salaun could also sneak up the ladder as well as Devin Carter.”
To what extent can Zach Edey’s game in college translate in the NBA?
NBA executive #1: “It will at some point. We’ve seen him anywhere from 12 to 20 in that range. It’s team specific. He will if a team feels it can use him as a backup center or third center, or it needs somebody big in the East to go against [Joel] Embiid or in the West to have him against [Nikola] Jokic and the monsters in Minnesota (Karl-Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert). There is a place for him, but I think it’s going to be more team specific than whether he’ll be on all 30 teams’ radar. He’s not for everyone. His game has evolved. His shooting is better, and he’s gotten himself in better condition. But there is a point in the draft where teams want a guy to have the potential to be a seventh or eighth guy on their roster, can be a starter or can be an All-Star. With Zach Edey, I think at max he’s going to be a 20-minute player. So am I going to take that guy at No. 10 or No. 8? This guy is going to be in the league for 15 years and will be a 15-to-18 minute draft pick. He’s a good player. That’s a good draft pick. But where that is, I don’t know where that lands. I don’t think anybody sees Zach Edey as a starting center for 35 minutes a night.”
NBA executive #2: “I would never bet against a guy like Zach Edey. He is incredibly competitive. He is skilled. And he is humungous. He might not succeed. But I would bet on him to succeed. When you have somebody that big and as his skill level continues to grow, you might be able to start playing through him offensively. He might not just be a backup five man. He might be a play-through starter. He has to get better, but everybody in the draft has to get better. People talk about what is asked of today’s bigs. But today’s bigs are often playing alongside a more dominant player that they have to play off of, and so if you’re Zach Edey, you probably don’t want to be playing with Ja Morant. But what if you’re Zach Edey and he’s playing with the Lakers? They bring it up the court slowly. Defensively, he’s not going to be able to switch out of the perimeter. So? Figure out how to defensively cover for that guy. But he’s potentially so dominant offensively that, at some point, teams will have to play against him. It’s not just him playing against other teams.”
NBA scout/consultant: “It’s amazing to think that, five years ago, he couldn’t catch a ball. To see his evolution up through this year, you can see how much he can dominate, not just as a big man, but as a decent passer and as a shot blocker. He’s not just a rebounder or a scorer in the paint. He also gets to the line often. Some say he’s so big and he can’t move. But he can move. He did well in testing. Though he didn’t look completely fluid, his lateral quickness was great. He showed toughness and calmness in the face of adversity. The mental acuity that he has combines with everything for a 7’4” guy.
A coach will try to form that puzzle on what they can put on the court. I truly think that he can find a role and make an impact to the game. We also have to think about his conditioning, too. The guy was playing a lot of minutes and getting hammered as a two-time player of the year. Wherever he comes in, they’ll try to utilize him and figure out where he’ll fit in on both offense and defense. I think he can play significant minutes, but he will start out with just playing his role. He can be a passer, screen setter and a pick-and-roll guy. Can he be a fast-break guy? I don’t know. We’ll see. We don’t see him as a fast-break guy. But his conditioning is there. His speed showed at the combine that it’s faster than expected. He’s not going to be Deandre Jordan, but he’s also 7’4.” When he goes up for the rebounds, he knows what to do with the ball. When he gets in the paint, he knows how to draw fouls. He knows how to make a right or left-handed shot. He knows how to play out of the pick-and-roll. They went to see him so much in college. In the NBA, he won’t. But we’ll see all the other intangibles he possesses.”
In what ways did Isaiah Collier grow the most this season?
NBA executive #1: “His physical attributes with just how strong and powerful he is and how dynamic he is in the open court. His shooting has to get better. I thought he got better defensively as the year went on. He was not good at the beginning. But he locked into that. The shooting has to come along, especially from the 3-point line. But he is a tremendous kid, hard worker and his body looks great. He’s great in transition, can really attack fast and get to the rim. The shooting has to come along with the party. That’s the swing skill for him. He just has to spend more time shooting the basketball. And he will. Is that going to get him from a 32% 3-point shooter to a 36% or 37% shooter? I don’t know. But his skill is driving, playing with force and with power at the rim. He’s not [Russell] Westbrook, but he plays with that reckless abandonment to the rim. That is where he is the best. He’s got a chance to be pretty good. The character is there. If he locks in on the defensive end, he has the chance to be a really good two-way guard as a mid first-rounder.”
NBA executive #2: “His competitiveness is always on display. His size is always on display. He’s another young player that was once very highly touted. I think he has real skill. I think he’s a 10-to-15 year NBA guard. I think he’s going to have a nice career with his size, ability to push the ball, his defensive intensity and to the extent that he’s willing to become better offensively. It’s about if he puts in the work. He’s got the frame. He’s got the competitiveness. All he has to do is defend at a high level, and he’ll stay on the court.”
NBA scout/consultant: “He returned from his hand injury, and played with a sense of urgency. He shot the ball better and got to the line. He started eliminating some of those mistakes that we saw. Here is a guy that we thought had the potential to be a top-five pick, even higher. Ultimately, he’s a 6’4” guard with good size. He can get inside and finish, but he didn’t shoot the ball well. I thought he’d shoot the ball better, but I still think he has the potential to become a better shooter. I don’t think it’s a flawed shot. Even with the strong frame that he has, he didn’t show the ‘extra effort’ stuff. I have him anywhere between 11 and 15.”
Mark Medina is an NBA insider with Sportskeeda. Follow him on X, Instagram, Facebook and Threads.