NBA coaches predict Celtics vs Mavericks' 2024 NBA Finals: "Going to pick Boston with or without Kristaps Porzingis"
A handful of opposing team assistant coaches agonized over the question.
It didn’t seem as difficult to answer these two questions. How do you defend the Boston Celtics’ Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown as well as the Dallas Mavericks’ Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving? When will Celtics center Kristaps Porzingis return after missing the past 10 playoff games with a strained right calf?
Nonetheless, those assistant coaches still struggled over predicting which team would win the NBA title.
“I don’t really favor either,” one NBA assistant coach told Sportskeeda.
Upon further prodding, however, some assistant coaches see green.
“There is no right or wrong in this, but I’m still going to pick Boston with or without Porzingis,” another NBA assistant coach told Sportskeeda.
That coach believed the Celtics will win in seven games for their 18th title, which would become an NBA record. Another NBA assistant coach from another team believes Boston will hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy in seven games.
“Boston’s depth and their top seven guys are just so strong,” another NBA assistant coach told Sportskeeda. “They were already tough to deal with and already such a good team. With Jrue Holiday and if Kristaps plays, adding those guys to an NBA Finals series puts them over the top. Luka and Kyrie would have to go so bananas just to be able to overcome that.”
Sportskeeda spoke to three NBA assistant coaches from three different teams, all of whom were granted anonymity to speak candidly about the Mavericks and Celtics, which play Game 1 on Thursday (8:30 pm ET, ABC). They analyzed the series, discussed the ramifications of Porzingis’ availability and detailed the chemistry between Doncic and Irving.
Editor’s note: The following one-on-one conversation has been edited and condensed.
Which team do you favor most in this series, and why?
NBA assistant coach #1: “Luka and Kyrie are presenting problems. They’re playing really well together. But even with that being said, I still think Boston is the better team. I just think Boston is pretty good defensively. Then they pose problems on the offensive end because they have Tatum, Brown and [Derrick] White. If they have Porzingis, too, that gives them even more space. Dallas has Kyrie and Luka, but I think Boston can score in more ways and are better defensively. They have length and are elite. Brown is pretty good. And they’re connected as a team. They’re not invincible, but they make it tough for you. I think they match up pretty well with Dallas.”
NBA assistant coach #2: “I favor Boston, and throughout the playoffs. But in saying that, I also thought Minnesota would win the series against Dallas. Dallas had an unbelievable Western Conference Finals, so it does make me a little leery that Dallas could get them. But Boston’s depth and their top seven guys are just so strong. They were already tough to deal with and already such a good team. With Jrue Holiday and if Kristaps plays, adding those guys to an NBA Finals series puts them over the top. Luka and Kyrie would have to go so bananas just to be able to overcome that. That is possible, obviously. We just watched that. But you have to give the edge to Boston on paper.”
"Giannis [Antetokounmpo] is incredible. But Jrue Holiday really was the key for Milwaukee to win that championship [in 2021]. He is an unsung hero and does so many things that are below the radar that the average person cannot see. He provides winning at the highest level. Having that guy on your side going into an NBA Finals when you’ve already had these experiences that Tatum and Brown have had and adding Kristaps as a role player is just incredible. Besides his defense, Jrue brings a level of confidence that you know he’ll make a play. It can be him making a shot or being in the right place at the right time. He just has a great feel for the game. He does things that can take the load off of Tatum and Brown.”
NBA assistant coach #3:
“I don’t really favor either. It’s hard to get too much into that because there are advantages for both teams. It’s also hard to tell who’s going to stay healthy over seven games. Obviously, Dallas plays more of a traditional pick-and-roll style of basketball. I think that creates as many problems as you can with Luka being the maestro. He’s got two elite bigs in [Dereck] Lively and [Daniel] Gafford that rotate. That automatically puts you in a bind. I’d be curious to see what Boston does from the standpoint on whether they pre switch a lot of their matchups so they can have their switching guys on the bigs to negate their separation. Minnesota didn’t do that and everyone criticized them for either being in too much of a drop or not handling the blitz well enough. Either way, it showed how much of a problem Luka is in the pick-and-roll. Boston doesn’t traditionally like to play that way. They like to pre-switch, whether it’s putting Holiday on the big. Everybody is looking at Holiday guarding Luka, but it’s really not that. They’re going to hunt the matchups. So how are you going to handle who they bring to screen for Luka and who’s going to be the guy that ends up on Luka? That’s a different situation, and I think Boston does that pretty well. I’m real curious about the chess-match part of it."
"Conversely, Boston has four guys that can make plays off the dribble in Derrick White, Jrue Holiday, Tatum and Brown. So where does Kyrie go from a defensive standpoint and where does Luka go from a defensive standpoint? It’s easy to say we’ll just our best defender on Tatum, but Jrue Holiday is a really good offensive player and so is Derrick White. It’s really about figuring out that part from the start."
"But I give the nod to Dallas in its bench production. They can go in a number of different directions. They can go with [Maxi] Kleber as a small-ball five and the switch five. Tim Hardaway Jr., you presume will be healthier and his 3-point shooting will be there. They have the other bigs with Gafford and Lively. And they got [Dante] Exum and [Jaden] Hardy. They have a couple of options they can go into from a depth perspective. Boston is a little shorthanded. [Al] Horford will go back to the bench, which is a big bonus. [Peyton] Pritchard has played well. [Sam] Hauser has had a tremendous year. But after that, it kind of slims out. [Luke] Kornet will probably be needed a little bit more. But I don’t know where else they go with their bench with giving a different look. I think Dallas has a little bit more depth to their bench. But at the end of the day, it’s the Finals. Their main guys are going to play 36 minutes and above. The best players will be present.”
To what extent do you think Porzingis’ availability and/or play affects the series outcome?
NBA assistant coach #1: “They’re long defensively and they are potent offensively with the weapons that they have. Porzingis certainly gives them another weapon and gives them more versatility in ways that they can play. But I think they’re good enough without him to win. Dallas is hot, though. When you’re hot like that, momentum matters. They’re confident and they believe. Those are valuable factors – the human emotion, the belief and the way they’re clicking. I am contradicting myself, but that would be the argument for Dallas. But from a basketball perspective, I still believe that Boston is the better team."
"Porzingis gives them added space with their attack. It’s hard for bigs to get out to him at times. With the way he’s been shooting it, he makes it very hard. He’s a hard matchup. You can put a small on Porzingis. Some teams put smalls on him because he’s not a strong post-up player, and he just has size. But sometimes he’s better down in the post and creates more problems. What he does with those guys is he gives them added space. He gives Holiday, Derrick, Tatum and Brown space. When they’re getting downhill, it’s just tough. He’s a spacer. He’s not the worst defender. He’s a good piece for them. But they’ve been playing without him for long, so they are clicking. It’ll be interesting to see what KP does when he comes back. Sometimes when you throw a player back into the mix after he’s been out a while, that’s also a tough adjustment.”
NBA assistant coach #2: “It’s going to be interesting to see who’s going to get the best out of that center position. Lively and Gafford are very traditional rim-rolling, rim-protecting and offensive rebounding crashing centers. They’re not perimeter threats. They’re not shooters. On the other end, you have Kristaps and Horford that can both space the floor, can both pick-and-pop and are both big-time jump shooters. That will be an interesting battle. Gafford was huge throughout the playoffs. Gafford and Lively have played well. With Lively’s impact in the deciding game against OKC in [Game 6], I would’ve given him the MVP. Boston will force Gafford and Lively to guard on the perimeter, and they’re going to be pulled away from the rim. It’ll be interesting to see the chess matches between the two coaches on how they exploit each other’s strengths. But I would still favor Boston [without Porzingis]. But getting Porzingis on the floor could really change the game for the series.”
NBA assistant coach #3: “The first big factor is that he spreads the floor. Boston is an iso-team. They’re going to find matchups and they’re going to space you out and are going to attack those matchups. They don’t have rolling bigs and are not going to play traditional pick-and-roll. So Porzingis from the jump gives you space. His space is different. He's 7’2” and has a high trajectory on his shot. He normally shoots a lot of his 3s two feet behind the 3-point line. That gives a layer of space for guys like White, Holiday, Tatum and Brown. The helpside defender now has to honor it. He’s either going to be in the gap or is going to be hugged up to the shooter and provide some lanes. They’re going to attack matchups differently. Luka is going to attack matchups via pick-and-roll. Kyrie is going to attack matchups via the sideline. So it’s a big chess match. But Porzingis gives you tremendous spacing just by being on the floor."
"He’s a rim protector. But I think the spacing in and of itself, it’s hard to go beyond that. All of these guys play from the midpost, from the elbow and from the nail in these isolation situations. He’s the third of that crew. Derrick White and Jrue Holiday complement all of them. So you never really need to make them focal points. They’ll take advantage of opportunities when they present themselves. With Porzingis being a third scoring option to an elite duo, that just enhances who they are. Without them, they’ve managed obviously. But regardless of whatever percentage that he’s at, he’s going to be a benefit to what they do.”
Beyond their talent and playing more games together this season, why have Luka and Kyrie become such a good fit with their chemistry and their roles?
NBA assistant coach #1: “Luka is that good and is shooting and playing at a high, high level. He’s matured a little bit emotionally and he’s not as high. He’s an elite passer. You can’t play Luka one-on-one because he’ll kill you. That is tough, though, because of Kyrie. Kyrie sometimes has mismatches or is in high ball screens. You have a little bit of a two-headed monster that are elite scorers. Kyrie has also matured emotionally. It seems like it’s the right fit. Kyrie has been on a lot of other talented teams, but it hasn’t worked. You can give [coach] Jason Kidd some credit. You can give [GM] Nico Harrison some credit. You can give Kyrie some credit. Kyrie is better because of the environment, his own emotional stability and his happiness. He’s always been talented. That’s never been a question with Kyrie. But he’s invested and available to play. His play was never the question. The downside to him was whether he was going to be invested in it all. He’s certainly invested. The trades helped them. They’ve surrounded those guys with pieces that put pressure on you with their size at the rim, their speed and their defensive versatility. So, it’s not just those two guys. It’s everything that gives them the space and ability to attack you. Gafford and Lively are great rim protectors.”
NBA assistant coach #2: “The regular season is such a different game than in the playoffs. The stars are very capable of doing amazing things every night. But they have to worry about their teammates and the team and make sure everyone is involved and the chemistry is fine. They have to make the right plays to get everybody going because they can’t do it on their own and need people invested, playing defense and doing all the little things so they can do what they do. But in the playoffs, that’s where they can really be themselves. The other guys and the role players are more inclined to do their job and do their role to the best of their ability. They really look for Luka and Kyrie to do what they do. They give them full license to let their talent shine and make it happen. That’s perfect for Luka and Kyrie. They’re great with high usage, are great with making shots and are great with making plays. That plays right into their hands for the playoffs.”
NBA assistant coach #3: “Any time you get to this point in the year, there’s a tremendous amount of sacrifice. Everyone worried about who would take the last shot and who’s the closer. That’s the one possession at the end of the game that people are curious about, and I think where you fall short in evaluating two elite players like Brown and Tatum or Luka and Kyrie is, ‘Who closes the first quarter, who closes out the second quarter and who goes on that mini run in the middle of the third quarter?’ Both of those guys get opportunities to do that, and that’s how they create separation. That’s where the closing really happens. It’s not the last play of the fourth quarter. It’s closing those gaps [earlier in the game]. They’ve been willing to sit back while one is going, knowing that they’ll get their opportunity because of the other one now commanding a double team. It's like in football. The No. 1 receiver has a Cover 2 on him the entire time. The No. 2 receiver benefits from single coverage. He may end up with 12 catches, while the No. 1 gets six. People want to say the No. 2 is the No. 1. No, the No. 2 is benefiting from the No. 1’s attention. That’s all good.”
What validity do you give to the argument that Boston is vulnerable because it hasn’t been challenged as much in the playoffs and that it sometimes lets its guard down?
NBA assistant coach #1: “Letting your guard down and not maintaining consistency is often an issue with some teams, and Boston would be one of those. But I don’t really subscribe to the idea that they haven’t been tested. They played well all year and played really good teams. They had some good wins. They have come back to win after being down in some games. When you feel that teams need to be tested, those are younger teams that have more trouble. I don’t feel like Boston is vulnerable to that element. I think they’re vulnerable to inconsistency. That’s an element that Boston will have to try to tighten up. Momentum in these series shifts a little bit. Everyone is vulnerable to that. As good as you can be, you can still be beat. These teams are that good. But it’s about which team can weather the emotion and stay consistent.”
NBA assistant coach #2: “I understand it because Boston has had a tendency when it’s not challenged to really let its foot off the gas. There is some concern there. I’m sure there is some concern from the coaching staff. But when you get to the NBA Finals, all of that goes out the window. Everyone from top to bottom – coaches, players, support staff - are going to bring their A game to the best of their ability and be locked in. I just feel like Boston will feel great and confident about its chances. Even if they drop a game, I don’t think they’ll panic. When you add up the depth and experience, I just feel like Boston has the edge.”
NBA assistant coach #3: “In sports, you understand that injuries and matchups can lead to failure or success. Boston has had a tremendous amount of success. They’ve had one of their guys go down and they faced opponents with some of their guys going down. Regardless, it doesn’t matter. You can be in a game where everyone is healthy, but your top two players are in foul trouble. You can’t fault the team for having that type of performance or a player going down. You never take credit away from a team because of what happened to someone else or who they played. They have to show up and they have to perform. Indiana lost to Boston in four games, but in three of them, the Pacers didn’t close. They easily could’ve been up 3-1, but they didn’t close. That’s not Boston’s fault or Indiana’s fault, but that just happens when you show up to perform. So credit goes to Boston for performing against Miami, Cleveland and Indiana regardless of who they had. Same goes for Dallas. They had to go in and beat a good Clippers, Oklahoma City and Minnesota team.”
Who is your pick and in how many games?
NBA assistant coach #1: “I think it’s going to be a six or seven-game series. It’s going to be tight. There is no right or wrong in this. I’m still going to pick Boston with or without Porzingis.”
NBA assistant coach #2:
“Based on how Dallas played in Minnesota and its confidence going into the Finals, I think it’s going to be competitive. I think it’ll be a long series. With my passion for NBA basketball, I’d love to watch a seven-game series. But I would say Boston in six.”
NBA assistant coach #3:
“Personally, I hope it’s a seven-game series. We’re all craving for a great series, but you never know. I think Boston will win one of the first two. I’d be surprised if they didn’t. Both teams will be extremely well-rested. Luka, whatever nagging injuries he’s had will benefit from this time off. I think the hardest game will be Game 3 when they go back to Dallas. Whatever that series is, that’s where the pressure really kicks in. I think Game 1 is kind of a tossup. I don’t know if home-court really plays into Game 1 of any series. You haven’t seen each other. You’re not overwhelmed by anything. You’re just playing basketball. In Game 2, you start seeing the adjustments. But if you’re Dallas and are 1-1, you’re going into Game 3 feeling good. If you’re Boston and you’re 1-1, you have to get that home series back. They haven’t been on the road in 2 ½ weeks, and there’s a lot of pressure. Game 3 is a tough deal. If you’re Dallas and down 0-2, you have to win Game 3. The numbers say that. Boston if you’re down 0-2, everything is against you. There’s really no scenario that neither team won’t have a lot of pressure in Game 3. But I think Dallas will have the upperhand going into Game 3 because of all of those scenarios. A lot of those scenarios favor Dallas in Game 3."
"The beauty of this is we’re going to crown a champion, and there will be a great story behind it. It could be Luka’s first [title], which will solidify his mark going forward. It could be Kyrie’s second [title], and we would have to have a new respect for what he’s done in this league despite all of the controversy and issues we’ve talked about in the past. We would have to have a new conversation. If it’s Tatum and Brown, they solidify their chemistry and allegiance. Jrue Holiday is the most under-heralded guy in the league. Any coach or player that has played against him will say the opposite. We do respect him and love him and give him his flowers. I don’t know if the national media understands how tough that guy is to play against. People also realize how good Derrick White is. This will be a great opportunity for him to solidify himself as now the new unheralded and disrespected guy and let Jrue Holiday get his flowers. Then we’ll be talking about Derrick the same way a lot of people have talked about Jrue for the last 10 years.”
Mark Medina is an NBA insider with Sportskeeda. Follow him on X, Instagram, Facebook and Threads.