Salary Cap rules, father time leave Golden State Warriors with a 2-year window
Three of the last four NBA titles belong to the Golden State Warriors and rightfully so. They revolutionized the game with small ball and an exciting uptempo style being mimicked by competing franchises.
They boast a myriad of multi-talented stars such as Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson. General Manager Bobby Myers has constructed one of the greatest dynasties in NBA basketball history. Originally hired as Golden State Warriors' assistant general manager in 2011, he fast-tracked to the general manager's position within 12 months.
While he has overseen and shaped this golden franchise one nugget at a time, the Golden State Warriors have two problems and they are the NBA salary cap and father time. All good things must come to an end and time plus money and financial spending can be mitigated by rules of engagement. In this case, the NBA salary cap is one that has flustered many a great GMs and could be a major problem for Bobby Myers and the Golden State Warriors
In 2012, under Bobby Myers' guidance, the Golden State Warriors had an outstanding draft. It started with drafting Harrison Barnes 7th overall in the first round and then they got Festus Ezeli 30th overall in the first round. Draymond Green was then selected with the 35th overall pick and then they got little known Serbian player Ognjen Kuzmic with the 52nd pick overall in the draft.
Kevon Looney was added in the 2015 NBA. The Warriors drafted Center Damien Jones 30th overall in 2016 and then in the second round traded to get the rights to Patrick McCaw. In the 2017 NBA draft Myers acquired Jordan Bell, a power forward who was drafted by the Chicago Bulls 38th overall and also acquired Jacob Evans, a shooting guard in this past Summer's NBA draft.
You will note though, that none of the significant contributors to this roster have been drafted between 2013 and now. Combo guard Shaun Livingston was acquired by free agent signing in 2014 on a three-year $60 contract and he again resigned with the Golden State Warriors in 2017 on a three-year $24 million contract. He's been around for all four NBA final runs since 2015.
On July 7th of 2016, Kevin Durant signed a two-year $53 million contract to play with the Golden State Warriors. Andre Iguodala was signed in 2013 to a four-year $48 million dollar contract and then again resigned in 2017 on a three-year $48 million dollar contract with the Warriors.
Bobby Myers, with the 2012 draft, in particular the Draymond Green pick, and a series of wise free agent signings centered around players that were already, on the roster, such as Curry and Thompson, has built the Golden State Warriors into the Juggernaut that they are today.
However, their current payroll is approximately $144 million, with Klay Thompson a free agent on July 1st, 2019. With the cap possibly at 108 million next season, resigning Thompson and minor tinkering with expiring contracts and fringe players is all Golden State may be able to manage. They are in the luxury tax range.
Granted, Myers has been able to resign his players on short-term reasonable financial deals and could get Thompson to as well, but its a safe bet the Warriors have 2 years to further cement their place in NBA history. Myers has had one great draft year as a General Manager in seven years. While much of that has to do with Golden State's rise since 2014, meaning low draft picks, Myers is going to need to show his creativity to keep Golden State competitive beyond 2020.
With the exception of expiring rookie contracts, which Golden State may choose to extend, as of the summer of 2020 free agency, the Warriors have two players under contract. That would be Stephen Curry and Jacob Evans.
Considering that this team is the reigning NBA champion there is a very slim chance that they would be looking to move significant members of this roster in order to get younger now. They will stay the course but in the summer of 2020, Curry who is already 30 years old and has shown signs of wear and tear will be 32. Durant will be 32 years old, Shaun Livingston will be 35 and Iguodala will be 36 years old. Thompson and Green will both be 30 years old.
While some players age like fine wine, some players deteriorate really quickly after a certain point. Should the Golden State Warriors fail to return to the NBA finals this season and or next season, I would expect that Bobby Myers will be looking to completely remake the roster and restock with draft picks.
Say for example the Warriors get knocked out in the second or third round of the playoffs in 2019 and then by midseason of 19/20 the team is struggling to be in the top 4 seeds. By the trade deadline, significant deals should be made to make this team younger and stockpile draft picks.
Needing to rebuild a roster is a challenge Myers is yet to face so his skills will be tested soon. In the West teams such as Utah Jazz, Los Angeles Lakers, OKC Thunder, San Antonio Spurs and the Houston Rockets (who pushed the Warriors to a 7-game Western Conference Final in 2018) are poised to surpass the Warriors. In the East, the Toronto Raptors and Boston Celtics are set to pose a serious challenge. The Warriors time for a change, in personnel and pay structure, will come soon.
While any demise of the Warriors might be very unlikely should this team be NBA champion again this year, I would suspect Meyers to make moves to tinker with the lineup to keep the Warriors competitive in 2019/20. We will most likely see wholesale changes made to the Golden State Warriors roster in the summer of 2020
Basically, the next two years is Golden State's window to further cement the dynasty that they have become after which father time and money suggest that this team will need to revolutionize the game of basketball once again.
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