The future of the Boston Celtics: against the Cavaliers, and against the clock
They couldn’t be more different even if they tried.
LeBron James was the most touted player in the history of the league, taken 1st overall in a draft that produced the likes of Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade. Isaiah Thomas was picked stone dead last in the draft of 2011.
James, the body of a demigod, a 6’8”, 240 lbs tower of power with the speed of a gazelle and the brute force of a sledgehammer. Isaiah is 5’9” in a teenager’s frame that wouldn’t even stand out in a crowd let alone a basketball court.
LeBron is headed towards the twilight of his career, still making a solid case for MVP and NBA Champion. Thomas is entering his prime after having made his first claim for either.
Both, however, are in the Eastern Conference Finals, their first matchup scheduled for the 18th in TD Garden. The battle between Isaiah Thomas and LeBron James is a real David vs. Goliath in the making.
While the Cavaliers looked like they were toying with the competition, humiliating the Pacers and the Raptors en route to two straight sweeps, the Celtics were in serious doubt of making it out of each of their matchups.
They dropped their first two games against the Bulls before gathering themselves only to be dropped to the ground again by the red-hot Wizards, with whom they just wrapped up a nail-biting Game 7, after being saved by an unlikely hero, Kelly Olynk. In fact, the only area in which the Celtics seem to have an edge over the Cavaliers is in seeding, winning 53 matches to become the 1st seed vs. Cleveland’s 51 and 2nd.
How do they fare against the Cavaliers?
This will be the first time since 1976 that the Celtics and the Cavaliers face each other in the Conference Finals; the Celtics hold a 4-2 advantage against them in that time span. Popular opinion dictates that it’s about to be 4-3 though, because of the way LeBron has looked through eight games. It looks like he’ll breeze through the next four as well.
James has averaged 29.6 points per game against the Celtics over his 14-year career, the most he’s done against any team in the NBA and it really won’t surprise anyone to see that average climb this series. The Cavs comfortably overcame the Celtics in the regular season, averaging 116 points in those meetings. While this is likely to change in the Playoffs with more focused defensive switches, the Cavaliers arguably have better or at par talent at every position, in a head-to-head matchup.
Position | Cleveland | Celtics | |
Point Guard | Kyrie Irving | > | Isaiah Thomas |
Shooting Guard | J.R. Smith | = | Avery Bradley |
Small Forward | LeBron James | > | Jae Crowder |
Power Forward | Kevin Love | > | Amir Johnson |
Center | Tristan Thompson | = | Al Horford |
Even if you consider Al Horford to be the weak link in my assertion, remember that the Celtics’ greatest weakness is their lack of rebounding capabilities and going up against the board-heavy Thompson, Love and LeBron, they’re bound to be blown out of the water on the defensive and offensive end in that regard.
Love averaged 24 points and 13 rebounds in his three games against the Celtics, Thompson averaged 12 points and 12 rebounds while Cleveland put up its best rebounding numbers against the Celtics, grabbing 54% of available rebounds, including 27% of its own misses.
This ability to gather their own missed shots becomes an even bigger problem when you consider how trigger happy the Cavaliers have gotten from deep. In their matchup against the Raptors in the semi-finals, the Cavs made 183 3-Pointers, against Toronto’s 82. That is a 303-point differential through four games, insurmountable even if the Celtics dominate the paint, which they won’t since their Center, Al Horford, is only an inch taller than the Cavaliers’ Small-Forward LeBron James.
And even if everything goes according to plan, if the Celtics run the Cavs off the line, if they sign a Chinese Dwight Howard to protect the glass, if Kyrie suddenly believes that the Earth is round again and leaves the Cavs in pursuit of a scientific life, the Celtics still have to deal with the King.
James is averaging 35 points, 9 rebounds and 7 assists this post-season, while shooting 55% from the floor and 47% from deep. The Celtics are simply outgunned and outmanned in this series, and will probably have their remains swept out of the Playoffs as the Cavaliers complete their third successful beatdown.
So how bad is it really for the Celtics?
Not bad at all actually, I’d even say they’ve overachieved. Yes, I’ll admit, Boston is one of the weakest #1 seeds in recent memory, but let’s not forget that the Celtics have been cast aside since the beginning of this season, no one thought they’d be #1 seed in the East, no one thought they’d beat Chicago after they went down 2-0, no one thought they’d pull through against John Wall’s MVP antics and much to everyone’s surprise, no one thinks they’ll be able to take a game against Cleveland.
The Celtics also have another thing going for them too, they’re one of the youngest #1 seeds ever. To put this into perspective, Celtics’ 6th man Jaylen Brown, who’s considered the X-Factor in this series since he’ll be tasked with guarding LeBron, was in school two years ago.
Yeah, take a minute, I’m about five years removed from school and you don’t see me playing in the Eastern Conference Finals. His bench mate, Marcus Smart, who was #6 in the 2014 draft is a key contributor, recorded his first triple-double last season and in doing so became the first player in 1971 to do so coming off the bench along with a career-high 26 points in a separate game against the Thunder.
And all this is before we come to Markelle Fultz, the consensus #1 Overall Pick in the forthcoming draft, which as Eastern Conference Finalists, the Celtics just won. Yes, dear world, a team that won 50+ games somehow, through sheer luck and the uselessness of the Brooklyn Nets, not only won this year’s NBA draft, but also stand a chance of winning it next year as well.
So, who is Fultz? Well, if you asked me to design the perfect Point Guard on NBA 2K17, Markelle is basically what I’d churn out. Long and athletic, the 6’5 Fultz has a Herculean 6’10 wingspan, giving him the ability to finish around the rim (or above it, if he so prefers). He can create space with his creamy ball handling which paired with a deadly long-range shot gives him the foundation for an offensive highlight reel.
He’s also a great passer out of the pick-and-roll and under the watchful eyes of Celtics Head Coach Brad Stevens, as has been the case with previous rookies in Boston, his upside is unlimited.
So, while the Celtics are almost bound to get a good, old-fashioned beatdown, it isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Remember the Celtics are still technically in the midst of a rebuild; compared to the Cavaliers they’re just a scrappy, young, hurriedly assembled team with a sophomore coach. With a bunch of teenagers as the future core of their team, the Celtics have more than enough time to hypothetically wait for LeBron to no longer be a dominant force in the league before crowning themselves as champions.
Is this 1987, or is this the future?
However, as big of a story as the Celtics and Cavaliers is, there’s another, more prominent headline making the rounds. The Celtics vs. the Lakers. While the Celtics did get the #1 Overall Pick and are bound to pick Fultz, an ungodly combination of ‘not enough’ and ‘way too much’ noise has been made about the kid going at #2, Lonzo Ball.
If you’ve never heard of him, congratulations. You’ve saved your soul and $495 in the process, but if you have heard of him, you know that much like Fultz, Lonzo is a lean, athletic point guard going to the other powerhouse of the NBA, the Los Angeles Lakers. This sets in motion a Celtics-Lakers rivalry, unseen since Magic Johnson and Larry Bird faced off against each other in the 80s. The similarities that contribute to this soon-to-be competitiveness go further than just lottery picks in a talented draft.
#1 Both the Celtics and the Lakers are teams on the rebuild
Removed from their crowning glory in the first decade of the 2000s, when the Celtics, led by their Big 3 of Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, beat the Kobe Bryant Lakers in 2008 or when Kobe casually returned the favour by beating Boston in the 2010 Finals, these two powerhouses have looked like shells of their former selves.
The Celtics-Lakers rivalry is, in fact, one of the greatest ever in the NBA; these two teams have met each other in a Finals series an NBA record 12 times, starting first in 1959 and ending last in 2010.
As I pointed out in a previous article, Boston and Los Angeles have been almost unfairly dominant in the NBA since its inception, but have struggled over the past half decade against new teams. The rivalry is now stirring again, and the fires undoubtedly being fanned by Fultz and Lonzo, two point guards who want to prove themselves against each other on the biggest stage available after having been compared for the entirety of their fledgeling careers.
#2 The Celtics and Lakers both have young, respected Head Coaches with distinguished track records.
Even more than the players, though, this is a rivalry between the Head Coaches, a narrative that has the makings of Hollywood sports thriller. The Lakers Head Coach, Luke Walton has effectively been in the NBA since the day he was born.
Son of two-time Champion and Hall of Famer Bill Walton, Luke followed in his father’s footsteps, winning two championships himself in 2009 and 2010. However, while his father took up broadcasting after he retired, Luke like his Star Wars namesake, chose a different path and joined the Warriors as an assistant coach.
The undoubted highlight of his coaching career came when, as the acting Head Coach for the Warriors in 2016 when Steve Kerr suffered back problems, Luke led the Warriors to an NBA record 24-0 start, the best start for a team in the history of the league, before being stolen away in the 2017 offseason by the Lakers.
So, while Luke is the big town boy who was born to do this like Johnny Lawrence in Karate Kid, Celtics Head Coach Brad Stevens makes a great case for the overlooked new boy, Daniel LaRusso. Stevens is the prototypical nerd, an Economics graduate who went on to work at a Fortune 500 Pharmaceutical Company before quitting it all in 2001 to chase his one true love, basketball.
After a decade of being virtually unknown, Stevens, along with his team finally made the spotlight in the NCAA, a college basketball tournament where he led his hometown team to enormous success, breaking multiple records, including ‘Most wins by a new Coach’ and the ‘Youngest Coach to go to two straight Final Fours’, before he was signed by the Celtics in 2013. Aged 37 and 40 respectively, Walton and Stevens will face each other plenty of times as they try to bring their franchises back to their former glory.
#3 The Celtics and Lakers are both counting on their young cores
The Celtics and the Lakers have two of the youngest rosters in the league; the average age of the players on their teams is 25.6 and 25.8, which is bound to fall further when they acquire their draft picks this season. (For reference, the three Finalists besides Boston, Golden State Warriors, the Spurs and the Cavaliers have average ages of 28, 29 and 30 respectively.)
Led by the Lakers backcourt of D’Angelo Russel and Jordan Clarkson alongside stretch-four Julius Randle, Walton aims to create another iteration of the Golden State Warriors, so much so that they might even acquire superstar Paul George this year, to really complete the Big 4 look.
The Celtics on the other hand, are adapting as they go along, building based on the pieces handed to them. Overstocked on guards, the Celtics have an important decision to make in the 2018 offseason, as Isaiah Thomas hits free agency and is viable for a max contract (I’ve explained how contracts in the NBA work, here).
At first glance, the answer seems simple, why wouldn’t you re-sign your fan favourite superstar who led the team in scoring? But Thomas will be 29 years old next year and at 5’9, he is a major defensive liability. Signing him to a $200 million contract for five years would mean paying him about $30 million at the age of 34.
This makes little sense for the Celtics, especially given that in the upcoming draft they’ll pick Fultz, a much younger, more athletically gifted version of Thomas who has the potential to be an offensive juggernaut while being an elite defender who can guard multiple positions on the floor.
It makes even less sense knowing that the Celtics will chase after big scorers like Jimmy Butler and Paul George this offseason and could do with as much free cap space as possible. Potentially (read as highly unlikely, hell could freeze over before this happens kind of unlikely), the Celtics could look to trade Isaiah, instead of losing him next year to free agency and acquire the kind of building blocks that will cement them into Championship conversation for the next decade.