Together we go farther: An NBA Conference Finals Preview
“You travel faster alone, but farther together.”
This quote is from the book ‘Men of Salt: Crossing the Sahara on the Caravan of White Gold’ by Michael Benanav, about a thrilling 40-day journey through the unforgiving Sahara desert. It’s a line that perfectly sums up the idea that a group would last longer than an individual. Even if an exceptional individual is capable of doing things quicker alone, for the long run, a team always travels farther.
A long, gruelling NBA play-off run can be sort of like a journey through an unforgiving desert sometimes. Those who dream of the desert oasis at the end of the horizon – the NBA championship – must battle through all kinds of trials and tribulations. They must suffer past injuries, fatigue, hostile road environments, and the stacks raised against them. An exceptional individual could certainly help a team achieve great things, win a big game, or hit a big shot; but it is the effort of the team as a whole that carries the group through four best-of-seven-series, through long road journeys, through defensive adjustments, and with the effort of every member of the troop stepping up whenever their number is called.
Perhaps it’s no surprise now that, as we reach the NBA’s Conference Finals, the Final Four remaining teams have largely come here based on their team-first, unselfish mentality, relying more on the efforts of the group than the talents of an individual.
Your Conference Finalists are Heat and Pacers in the East and Spurs and Grizzlies in the West. Outside of LeBron James – the 2012-13 MVP – no other player who finished top five in MVP voting (Kevin Durant, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Paul and Kobe Bryant) finds himself in the Conference Finals. In recent years, the smart answer for any contending team has been to find a superstar or two and build a strong roster around them. This year, the formula has been slightly adjusted. Squads who have focused on defensive intensity, have built strong team chemistry, and play unselfish basketball are now in the final four. Even the Heat, who feature a four-time MVP in LeBron and superstars in Wade and Bosh, are relying more and more on playing strong group defence and sharing the ball on the offensive end.
Of course, injury played a part in the result so far. Kevin Durant and the Thunder were favourites to make it this far (and further) if Russell Westbrook had been healthy. A healthy season for former MVP Derrick Rose would’ve seen the Bulls finish higher in the East and perhaps still be standing at this point. Injuries to Kobe Bryant, Rajon Rondo, Kevin Love, Amar’e Stoudemire, Andrew Bynum, Danny Granger, David Lee, Danilo Gallinari, and many more have marred this season. But that only goes to prove the importance of a team structure. A better-built team could afford to lose an individual and still be standing strong; a star-reliant team (like the Thunder) crumple without their stars.
So far in the play-offs this season, unselfish, defence-first teams have been able to punch above their weight. The league’s two best defences – Grizzlies and Pacers – are in the Conference Finals, defeating the Thunder and the Knicks respectively. Even though the Bulls lost to the Heat, they were able to give them fits by setting their defensive identity on the series.
The Second Round was indeed full of surprises, and two of my four predictions from a couple of weeks ago went awry. After losing Game 1 in a surprise to the Bulls, the Heat bounced back admirably to win the next four, even though the injury-plagued Chicago roughed up the reigning champions till the very end. The Pacers stole Game 1 in New York from the Knicks, and even though the Knicks won a couple of games back in Madison Square Garden, Indiana protected their home court and destroyed the Knicks on the boards to win the series 4-2.
Out West, the Spurs were given fits by the surprising Warriors who relied on Stephen Curry taking a star turn. Golden State were even with the experienced crew from San Antonio 2-2, before the Spurs made adjustments, guarded Curry better, and saw great production from Parker and Duncan to win 4-2. The Grizzlies lost game one to a fantastic clutch shot by Kevin Durant, but turned the screws on the series after that and grinded away four consecutive wins to take the series 4-1.
Now, what happens next? To make it to the next step – the NBA Finals – the Conference Finalists will fight to impose their will and their playing style on the series. If the trend in the play-offs so far is to continue, then it will take much more than star power to proceed ahead. Here are my predictions for the Conference Finals.
East
Heat vs. Pacers: Miami have lost only one game in these play-offs. Indiana haven’t lost a single game at home. The Heat have been toughened with their battle against the Bulls, and they will need every bit of that toughness if they wish to defeat the mean-streak Pacers in the next round. Indiana will not go down quietly. The starting five of George Hill, Lance Stephenson, Paul George, David West, and Roy Hibbert was the best five-man unit in the NBA all season and any of those is capable of being their hero on any given day. Indiana have the defensive capability to defend Miami’s superstars and are getting solid production from their bench too. Their biggest advantage over Miami is size, and just like they dominated the Knicks’ front-line, expect David West and Roy Hibbert to play a big role defending the paint and getting their squad second-chance opportunities with offensive rebounds.
Yet, outside of the size advantage, Miami still hold all the other keys for success in this match-up. They do all the other things that Indiana do well, and they do them better. Indiana do have a 2-1 regular season advantage over the Heat, but Miami have become otherworldly good since March, and have won an incredible 45 of their last 48 games. It is tough to beat them once, and nearly impossible to beat them four times. LeBron will continue his stride, Wade has been hobbled but has a habit of coming up big when most needed, and the Heat have shown their ability to get tougher to match their opponents. My prediction? Heat win 4-2
West
Spurs vs. Grizzlies: A match-up of epic proportions. Tim Duncan warned that this series was not going to be pretty, and I believe him. Grizzlies finished fifth in the West and lost their first two games, but ever since, have won eight of their last nine, defeated a fourth-place and a first-place team, and are looking like the most-feared team in the league. The line-up of Mike Conley, Tony Allen, Tayshuan Prince, Zach Randolph, and Defensive Player of the Year Marc Gasol has the potential of becoming the closest thing to the 2004 championship Detroit Pistons.
A less-experienced version of these Grizzlies shocked the world when were an eighth seed in 2011 and upset the top-seeded Spurs in the first round. Now, the Grizzlies have reached the NBA Conference Finals for the first time in the franchise’s 18-year history (from Vancouver to Memphis) and will show no fear to anyone.
In those same 18 years, these San Antonio Spurs have played in the Conference Finals nine times (so, pretty much one every alternate year) and in the Finals four times, winning a championship in each Finals appearance. This team oozes confidence and veteran stability. Despite recently turning 37, Duncan is having his best season in years and was perhaps the best big man in the league this season. Parker is a perennially underrated superstar who will probably require the defensive abilities of Tony Allen.
The Spurs support crew have been stepping up of late as well, especially Kawhi Leonard and to a lesser extent, Tiago Splitter and Danny Green. And then there’s the evergreen Manu Ginobili, who always finds ways to win. I think that the slower pace of the Grizzlies will benefit the ageing Spurs too, who won’t mind grinding it out against Memphis. It will be a long, hard series, and the longer it goes, the decisions of coaches, the defensive and offensive adjustments, and the veteran smarts will start being the deciding factors. It is here that I will give the very slight edge to Greg Popovich and the Spurs. The Grizzlies have been great, but the Spurs will eventually figure them out, even if it takes seven games. I predict that the Spurs win 4-3.
Faster alone, but farther together. The journey for the NBA championship through these play-offs is only half done. The remaining four teams have to continue their voyage. But they must remember that to cross the desert and reach the sweet oasis to become the league’s best, they’ll need to do it just how they have done it so far: Together.