NBA 2017-18: Why only James Harden is the MVP
The Most Valuable Player race unfolded like a melodrama, with pundits fanning the flames for candidates like Kevin Durant, LeBron James, and DeMar DeRozan, among others, throughout the season. But after finishing in the top 10 in MVP voting in each of the past five seasons, including second in 2014-15 (behind Stephen Curry) and 2016-17 (behind Russell Westbrook), James Harden should win his first MVP award decisively.
Also read: Ranking the Greatest MVP Seasons ever
Harden is Houston’s heartbeat; he makes the team’s innovative system not only function but flourish. The 28-year-old guard is having one of the most efficient high-volume scoring seasons in NBA history, averaging 30.4 points with a 62 true shooting percentage and a 54.1 effective field goal percentage. Toss in his 8.7 assists per game and he enters the stratosphere of the greatest offensive seasons in history; Michael Jordan is the only other player to drop 30 and eight with true shooting greater than 60 percent.
Harden’s scoring excellence is nothing new. He has always possessed a diverse skill set that allows him to create his own shots off pick-and-rolls and isolations or score off handoffs and screens. But this season was different for Harden. The addition of Chris Paul gave the Rockets a second Hall of Fame–caliber point guard, a fantasy come to life for Mike D’Antoni and his offensive system, which is known for its high doses of pick-and-roll. Defenses today switch on-ball screens to force offenses into stagnant situations. Shot creation is a necessity, and no one is better than Harden at scoring in isolations.
James Harden scores 1.24 points per isolation possession, which is the highest recorded by a player with a minimum of 100 logged possessions since Synergy Sports began tracking data in the 2004-05 season. No one has even come close to scoring on isolations with such success at such a high frequency. Of the 35 individual seasons a player logged at least 500 isolation possessions—which includes multiple seasons by LeBron James and Kobe Bryant—the average player besides Harden this year scored 0.95 points per possession. But Harden’s 1.24 is better than any team has scored in transition during the past four seasons, per Synergy. Harden has also scored more isolation points (868) than any other team this season (the Cavaliers are next closest with 801). That doesn’t seem possible.
It’s an especially remarkable feat considering the iso has rightfully earned a reputation as an inefficient, ball-stopping play that sucks the life out of a team. But the Rockets have turned it into an advantage by building a system that enhances Harden’s ability to get layups, draw fouls, and shoot 3s off of isolations. They space the floor with either five shooters or with four shooters and a lob threat in Clint Capela, and they run an offense that can look more like a one-on-one at Rucker Park than a five-on-five in an NBA arena. It’s easier said than done to find the correct ingredients to make their homemade dynamite, but D’Antoni and Rockets general manager Daryl Morey have put together a winning blueprint that future teams can try to follow.
The problem is it’s near-impossible to find a player as special as Harden. He is elite at all the things that make isolation scorers great—shaking and baking defenders, getting into the paint like Jordan and LeBron, dancing and spinning from midrange like Kobe Bryant and Tracy McGrady, pulling up from outer space like Curry. What we haven’t seen is a player step back to 3-point land like Harden has this season. Harden has more makes (79) and takes (176) on step-back 3-pointers than any team in the NBA; the next closest teams are Portland (45 makes) and Denver (122 takes). No team is featuring those shots in its arsenal, while Harden is hitting them at a 44.9 percent clip.
D’Antoni gives Harden the green light regardless of the situation, because Harden can score no matter what look defenses give him. If they back off him, he pulls up. If they crowd him, he blows by them. If they stop his drive, he steps back. If he’s covered, he’ll kick the ball out to a shooter or lob it to a big. Harden’s volume, proficiency, and degree of difficulty, combined with his ability to make plays for his teammates and play off-ball alongside Paul, is truly hard to fathom. Harden is unguardable.
Another big part of Harden’s scoring efficiency is his ability to get to the free throw line. Harden has drawn 140 fouls on 1,213 drives to the rim this season, per Second Spectrum. Only one other player (DeRozan) has logged more than 100. Harden tricks referees into blowing the whistle with Oscar-worthy performances on his drives to the rim, swinging his arms into his defender’s side like he’s a wide receiver jostling with a cornerback. Many fans understandably get annoyed by Harden’s habits. Watching free throws isn’t fun. But until it’s outlawed or referees make it a point of emphasis, it’s hard to knock a guy for bending the rules to help his team.
Not to mention, of the 45 players to shoot at least 250 times on drives, Harden ranks fourth in field goal percentage. He’s elite even without a whistle. But there’s an art to drawing fouls, and he’s simply better at it than anyone else—even if it can be frustrating to watch.
While Harden has rightfully been knocked in the past for providing as much resistance on defense as unlocked saloon doors, he’s been more reliable on that end this season as part of Houston’s improved defensive culture. Harden isn’t the reason the Rockets have the seventh-ranked defensive rating, but they’ve used him against multiple positions, depending on the matchup. He’s been asked to battle against big forwards, fight on the defensive boards, and slide his feet against quick guards, and he’s generally done a solid job. He’s allowing less than 0.8 points per possession against isolations and post-ups, is snatching 4.9 defensive rebounds per game and ranks in the top 25 for both deflections and loose balls recovered. Harden isn’t a defensive stopper, but he’s no longer a liability.
The Houston Rockets are the best team in the NBA and have one of the top offenses in history and an elite defense. Harden is their best player, and he’s having one of the greatest scoring seasons in history. The MVP debate was fun over the course of the season, but it really was never close.