Why are we overlooking Jabari Smith over Chet Holmgren and Paolo Banchero?
It’s too easy to overlook Jabari Smith Jr. The third overall pick in 2022 shares the peak of his class with future franchise cornerstones Paolo Banchero and Chet Holmgren. The Rockets have constructed a formidable young core over the last four seasons, featuring talents such as Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, Jalen Green, Tari Eason and Cam Whitmore.
We shouldn’t forget the workmanlike Jabari Smith, who quietly established himself after a disappointing rookie campaign. As a sophomore, Smith averaged 13.7 points. 8.1 rebounds and 1.6 assists per game on 57.1% true shooting. Smith raised his efficiency to just below league average after a rookie year as one of the NBA’s least efficient players (51.4% TS).
Houston Rockets defense will be anchored by Jabari Smith
On a Houston team loaded with offensive talent, Smith leaned into his excellent defense. During his single college season, Jabari Smith played like a future elite wing-stopper on the defensive end. We finally saw glimpses of that future in year two, as Smith’s defense shined bright for a top-10 Houston defense. Few 6’10 players move laterally as fluidly as Smith can, changing speeds and directions to mirror all sorts of handlers.
Smith boasts the versatility to switch out to smaller, quicker handlers. His sudden lateral first step, fluid hips and change of direction ability are unnatural. Even the greatest point-of-attack defenders will sometimes lose to the NBA’s elite offensive talents and Smith is no different. Wings with similar body types to Smith rarely score easily on him.
He even held up at times defending the five when Alperen Sengun missed games. Without elite strength, size, or explosion for a five, larger players can overwhelm Smith. Despite not being suited to play center full-time, Jabari's balance and great hand placement in contests helped him defend the rim above his position. According to Synergy, Smith held opponents to 47.1% at the rim, placing him in the 81st percentile leaguewide.
Jabari Smith may never develop into an off-ball wrecker, constantly blowing up actions and swooping in on difficult rotations. He’s more than capable of sinking on the weak side and executing basic concepts, though, which plenty of 21-year-olds can’t claim. Smith makes up for his low steal rate (1.0%) with solid block numbers (2.3%) on a rim-protection-needy Rockets team.
Houston’s treasure trove of perimeter defensive talent — Smith, Tari Eason, Amen Thompson — will necessitate careful deployment. Without a true shot-blocking threat, though, the Rockets often ask their perimeter players to defend on the interior more than they would in an ideal role. Though Smith will be most effective on the perimeter, his versatility will continue to gleam for a Rockets team without a true paint protector.
Jabari Smith's offensive progression is worthy of a note
After an offensively challenging rookie season, Jabari Smith progressed on the offensive end, flashing more of the special moments we saw at Auburn. As a rookie, Smith shot an uncharacteristically low 30.7% from three. That number bounced back to a promising 36.3% as a sophomore on strong volume (7.6 attempts per 100 possessions).
Smith punished defenses as an off-ball shooter, draining 38.1% of his catch-and-shoot triples. That adds to his signature off-dribble shotmaking. Few 6’10 21-year-olds rise off of the dribble as smoothly as Smith can, pulling up over defenders to drain shots. Smith scored efficiently from the mid-range, drilling a solid 42.3% of his intermediate jumpers.
Even with improved efficiency, Houston’s offense didn’t prioritize Smith like some may have hoped. He tied for seventh on the Rockets in usage rate (17.6%) and fourth in touches per game (45.6). On a crowded Houston offense, Smith didn’t earn the reps many expected from a former top-three pick, though the Rockets are loaded with former top picks.
How much more usage can Smith handle? Outside of catching and shooting, Smith doesn’t add much value without basketball at this point in his career. He’s at his best facing up towards the basket to hunt his pull-up jumpers. Smith doesn’t create much separation on his own without those shots.
When Smith can’t shoot over defenders, he struggles to generate clean looks by himself. Defenders too easily pluck Smith’s handle. Without a good first step, strength or explosion, defenders sit on Smith and force him into difficult jump shots. Smith was fairly efficient at the rim last season (65.1%), largely boosted by assisted buckets.
What are Jabari Smith's flaws? And how can he address them?
Smith also doesn’t add playmaking value, making it even harder for him to function without looking to score. His paltry 7.1% assist rate placed as the seventh worst in the NBA among 94 qualified starters, only eclipsing Rudy Gobert, Saddiq Bey, Michael Porter Jr., Keegan Murray, Isaiah Stewart and Brook Lopez.
When Smith touches the basketball, he’ll most likely shoot the ball. That makes defenders’ lives easier. Teams can load up on Smith with back-line help without fearing the threat of a pass. Most of Smith’s assists are basic swings, kickouts and handoffs within the flow of Houston’s offense.
For Smith to reach his offensive ceiling, he must process the floor more quickly. Feel for the game can be difficult to improve drastically and Smith’s decision-making and processing speed have been development points since he was a high school prospect. But Smith’s elite shooting potential means he doesn’t need to radically improve as a playmaker. Rather, reaching a baseline of consistency, especially as a quick, connective passer, would do wonders for his long-term outlook on the offensive end.
If Smith develops into the elite tall shotmaker he can become, his ancillary skill development won’t loom as large. Sometimes, shooting off of the dribble at an elite clip at 6’10 will be enough to fuel offensive excellence. Without the feel for the game and creation chops requisite of most stars, Smith’s path to offensive greatness may not be smooth.
Even if Smith can’t develop the offensive game to reach true All-Star-level impact, he’s growing into an impactful two-way player. Smith’s progression to a low-maintenance defensive ace may be disappointing to some fans, though that skillset fits snugly with Houston’s core of high-ceiling offensive talent.