Why Tyler Herro needs a bounce-back year for the Miami Heat
Tyler Herro failed to build on his impressive performances for the Miami Heat during the NBA bubble and is now facing an uphill battle to live up to lofty expectations.
In his rookie season, Herro looked to be a steal with the 13th selection in the 2019 NBA draft. Coming off the bench, he displayed an ability to utilize screens and find scoring space above the break. He also looked comfortable attacking closeouts off the dribble.
Tyler Herro gave the Miami Heat a second scorer off the bench along with sharpshooter Duncan Robinson. However, Herro looked to have more in his locker. When defenders hedged a pick-and-roll, the Miami Heat rookie allowed you to feel comfortable in his ability to navigate pressure and find shooting space while often looking like rim-finishing could be developed further down the line.
Sure, there were questions about Tyler Herro's ability to get his own shot, but you could always envision him developing that ability to some level as a rookie. During both his inaugural regular and post-season run, Herro relied upon his teammates to set the table, with 60% of his regular-season buckets and 57% of his post-season points coming off an assist.
Luckily, with the other 40% of his buckets, Tyler Herro flashed some impressive handles and an ability to generate space.
oh this early quarter stretch from Tyler Herro...
spot-up shooting, shot creation (watch your ankles!), a killer pocket pass to Kelly Olynyk on a high PnR out of motion (though it didn't lead to a shot attempt)
these are the flashes Miami needs from him
So what happened to Tyler Herro in his sophomore season? Slight regression across the board and a little tentativeness crept into his game. According to Cleaning The Glass, Herro saw a regression in his three-point scoring, while his mid-range game remained the same from a statistical standpoint. One noticeable uptick was that his accuracy around the rim took a sharp upturn, jumping to 67% and placing him in the 75th percentile among combo guards.
Alas, despite the improved conversion of his rim attempts, Tyler Herro only drove to the hoop on 34% of his shot attempts. The second-year guard's shot profile remained largely unchanged - shoot the three and attack closeouts if the defense takes that shot away.
A slight bump in the road is to be expected, especially after the rookie season Tyler Herro had. This is a rookie who played a key bench role as the Miami Heat went to the NBA finals before ultimately losing out to a LeBron James-led LA Lakers team.
The Miami Heat should take solace that Tyler Herro stagnated rather than regressed. Another aspect to look at is that the Miami Heat tasked Herro with a slightly larger offensive load. As a rookie, he saw a 21.4% usage rate. This marginally jumped to 23.1% in his second year, which is why his scoring numbers improved despite his execution remaining at rookie year levels.
Tyler Herro fell apart during the Miami Heat's 2021 playoff run
However, that was all in the regular season. Tyler Herro's nightmare began when the 2021 playoffs rolled around. His 43% from the field fell off a cliff to just 31.6%. His 5 rebounds and 4 assists fell to just 3 and 2, respectively. The 21-year-old was buckling under the pressure, or so it seemed.
Tyler Herro in the bubble:
16.3 PPG
3.7 APG
45.2 FG%
37.6 3P%
Tyler Herro this playoffs:
7.7 PPG
1.7 AST
28.0 FG%
33.3 3P% https://t.co/5XXBeBUMQF
Perhaps it was stage fright. After all, Tyler Herro shot to prominence with the Miami Heat during a phase where there were no fans in the stadium; it was just basketball in its purest form. Fast-forward a year and both expectations and hostility were on offer from the thousands of onlookers.
Teams likely knew how Erik Spoelstra was going to use Tyler Herro in offensive sets, or maybe his matchup wasn't complimentary to his skillset. After all, the 2021 playoff sample size was just four games. Had the Miami Heat progressed to the second round, Herro could have found himself in a much better position.
There's no telling how things would have shaken out, but one thing's for sure: Tyler Herro needs a bounce-back season this year, and the Miami Heat will be expecting him to come good. Stagnation in his shooting splits, shot selection, and an inability to grow his off-the-dribble shot creation will only serve to hold both parties back.
Tyler Herro promised a great deal with his rookie performances. With the Miami Heat now "all in" on their current roster, he has a golden opportunity to cement his role within the organization for years to come.
Teams would have feared the Miami Heat's bench to begin last season, with two superb scorers in Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson. The spacing looked to be exquisite, but it crumbled when pressure was applied.
There were rumblings that Tyler Herro was far too eager to embrace his celebrity status and that the Miami Heat were concerned about this fact. However, if he fails to get his progression back on track this year, Herro will quickly learn that the celebrity life can disappear as quickly as it came.
The Miami Heat are one of the best-run organizations in the NBA, but they have clear championship aspirations. If Tyler Herro wishes to remain on South Beach, he needs to bounce back from his poor playoff performances and quickly. Otherwise, he might find himself jettisoned to a new team as the Miami Heat move to add more consistency to their rotation.
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