Will Evan Mobley compete against Victor Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert for DPOY honors?
The Cleveland Cavaliers drafted Evan Mobley in 2021 following their third straight sub-25-win season. Since Mobley’s arrival, Cleveland has made the playoffs every season. The 23-year-old center has inarguably helped the Cavs retool and return to relevancy.
He’s been a defensive stalwart throughout his career, making the All-Defense First Team and receiving the third most Defensive Player of the Year Votes in 2023. Similar to many defense-first players, the counting stats can’t capture Mobley’s full impact. In 50 games as a third-year player, Mobley averaged 15.7 points, 9.4 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 1.4 blocks per game on a career-best 62.6% true shooting. Can he compete against the likes of Victor Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert this season?
Why numbers don't do justice for Evan Mobley
At 23, Evan Mobley has cemented himself as a top-shelf NBA defender. He’s one of the league’s premier modern defensive anchors, leading Cleveland to a top-seven defensive finish in all three of his pro seasons. Defensive metrics reflect this; his +1.9 Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus, 4.1% block rate (1.4 blocks per game) and 1.4% steal rate are all excellent.
With Mobley on the floor, Cleveland’s defense improved by 0.3 points per 100 possessions, though the Cavs will always have one of Mobley or Jarrett Allen on the floor when both are healthy. Mobley defends the hoop at an elite level, deterring, contesting and blocking shots. Opponents shot 53.8% within six feet against Mobley (defending 8.3 shots there per game), placing him in the 91st percentile.
Mobley’s special physical tools fuel his rim protection greatness. Few bigs explode off of the ground as quickly as he does to block shots at their apexes. When he’s airborne, Mobley contorts and adjusts his body to track the ball with dancer-like coordination, balance and body control. His lack of strength will hurt in some matchups against burlier post scorers, but Mobley thrives as a primary and a weak-side shot blocker.
In a fast, spaced-out league, Mobley’s perimeter defense sets him apart. Seven-footers rarely switch and mirror as Mobley can, moving out onto guards occasionally and covering tons of space as a helper. His utility to defend the wing off the ball alone only adds to his big-man duties and limitless pick-and-roll coverage versatility.
In the postseason, Mobley’s defense kicked into a new gear. He posted historic defensive metrics, upping his D-EPM to +4.1 and his block rate to 6.2%. He especially dominated in Cleveland’s second-round loss to Boston. With Jarrett Allen sideline, Mobley thrived as a full-time five. His rim protection, shot-blocking and perimeter versatility patched up as many gaps as possible on a dilapidated Cavs defense.
Evan Mobley's offensive powers might grow even more as he stretches into year 4
Mobley’s series against Boston revealed glimpses of his offensive potential as a solo center. He averaged 21.4 points a contest in those five games on still-solid efficiency. Cleveland pigeonholes Mobley to the four next to Allen where defenses can exploit his lack of shooting threat. But with shooter spacing for Mobley against the Celtics, his slashing and interior scoring game both thrived.
His mobility advantages extend to the offensive end; few big defenders can hang with Mobley. He’s one of the best ballhandlers and craftiest drivers in the league for a center, whipping out creative dribble combos and footwork choices all while he contorts his body around defenders to score. Mobley converts a strong 70.5% of his shots within five feet with a healthy diet of self-creation added onto his rolling, cutting and lob finishing.
Mobley’s lack of strength means he struggles to score and create advantages consistently in the post. It was by far his least efficiency play type last year, averaging a paltry 0.73 points per possession according to Synergy. He improved his efficiency from floater range, upping it to 46.2% from 40.9% last year. After an elite mid-range scoring season at USC, Mobley hasn’t reached those heights yet in the pros. His three-point improvement has been encouraging, though, as Mobley shot 37.3% from deep last year. That’s a massive jump from 21.6% as a sophomore. Mobley’s low volume (1.4 attempts per 75 possessions) limits how much he can threaten defenses as a shooter but the development track there is positive nonetheless.
As a playmaking threat, Mobley pairs well with Jarrett Allen. Their high-low chemistry generates easy buckets, Mobley often bouncing passes and feathering lobs to Allen for layups and dunks. He’s a snappy processor on the short roll and in advantage situations with enough playmaking out off of his own scoring gravity to keep defenses honest.
But it’s his scoring alone that will vault Mobley to superstardom or leave him short. He’s already a near All-Star level player on the back of his Defensive Player of the Year level performance and burgeoning offensive skillset. Players as young as him and as accomplished as him have strong track records.
Cleveland Cavaliers' twin towers can be a formidable force in the East
If Mobley can establish himself as a high-volume, high-efficiency scoring option, he’d become an ideal offensive secondary and defensive primary on a title-winning team. We’ve seen flashes of Mobley’s elite driving creation potential and shotmaking growth that suggest this. Will Mobley grow to be that version of himself with Jarrett Allen on the roster, though?
Allen is fantastic in his own right and a player similar to Mobley. Their additive powers combine to form an often impenetrable defense with positive offensive moments. It’s difficult to play two non-shooting threats together in the modern NBA, especially in the postseason.
Cleveland shouldn’t hurry to move Allen. He’s a key piece for their current success and they’re knocking on the door of title contention. It’s fair to wonder if Mobley can reach his highest potential without a spacing four next to him. The new head coach, Kenny Atkinson, is the best offensive mind the Cavs have employed in the Twin Towers era, so it’s possible that a creative approach could unlock their offensive pairing.
Evan Mobley’s ceiling will be tethered to Cleveland and its success for at least the opening act of his career. Can Mobley break out and make his first All-Star game in a crucial year four? Or will his offensive development stagnate, the sparks from his last playoff run fading before they could catch fire? If nothing else, Mobley should continue to dominate teams on the defensive end for many seasons to come.