Kentucky's Lexington Regional projections: Can the Wildcats make their way into the super regionals?
No. 2 national seed Kentucky will open the NCAA Tournament on Friday. The Wildcats gained the powerful regional hosting advantage and would host a super regional for a shot at the College World Series in Omaha.
But the NCAA Tournament isn't a place where anything is given. The Wildcats will have to win their way to their ultimate destination. So, can Kentucky come out of its region?
Lexington Regional projections
Game 1: Kentucky vs. Western Michigan, Friday
The Wildcats will open regional play on Friday at noon when they play MAC champion Western Michigan. The 32-21 Broncos are ranked 128th in the national RPI rankings, but they come in off a dominating MAC Tournament performance.
The Broncos hit .316 but aren't an exceptionally powerful team. The issue they'll run into is pitching. Nolan Vicek (5-3, 4.15) is the ace, but Western Michigan doesn't have much pitching behind him.
Kentucky will likely throw ace Trey Pooser (5-1, 4.02) in the opener, and Western Michigan will have to get to the UK bullpen to make this competitive. Kentucky's offensive firepower figures to be too much for WMU.
Prediction: UK 10, WMU 3
Game 2: Illinois vs. Indiana State, Friday
The second and third seeds battle at 7 p.m. on Friday. Indiana State is a terrifically underrated team. They finished the regular season ranked 10th nationally in RPI and conceivably could have garnered hosting honors had they won the MVC Tournament. Illinois won the regular-season Big Ten title but comes in with a No. 48 RPI ranking.
Indiana State's offense is potent with sluggers Mike Sears (23 home runs, 71 RBIs) and Luis Hernandez (22 home runs, 75 RBIs). Illinois also has significant power, with five double-digit home run hitters. But ISU's pitching is superior, and that looks like the difference here.
Prediction: Indiana State 8, Illinois 4
Game 3: Losers of first two games (Illinois vs. Western Michigan), Saturday
Saturday will feature an elimination game with the losers of Friday's game. The Illini's power figures to save them from an early trip home. Western Michigan's doubles-heavy lineup will make it interesting, but they can't stop the Illinois offense.
Prediction: Illinois 10, Western Michigan 7
Game 4: Winners of first two games (Kentucky vs. Indiana State), Saturday
Mason Moore will start the second game for Kentucky and will be tasked with the heavy job of keeping Indiana State from lighting up the scoreboard. ISU will be a handful for Kentucky. If the Sycamores can get into Kentucky's bullpen early, then this game is a toss-up. But as it stands, Kentucky is the pick to rally late.
Prediction: Kentucky 9, Indiana State 6
Game 5: Loser of game 4 vs. winner of game 3 (Illinois vs. Indiana State), Sunday
The Sycamores can take advantage of the Illinois pitching staff in this game at noon on Sunday. Illinois has a solid team, but not one built for playing three games in three days. That's the difference in this one, although it certainly looks like a slugfest.
Prediction: Indiana State 13, Illinois 12
Game 6: Winner of game 4 vs. winner of game 5 (Kentucky vs. Indiana State), Sunday
Frankly, with a day of rest for ISU, I'd pick them to win and make Kentucky have to go two of three to claim the regional. But ISU will be playing at 7 p.m. on Sunday, for its fourth game in three days.
Kentucky's pitching depth has had issues, but the Sycamores will have spent their cache of available arms to make it this far. Kentucky wins and advances.
Prediction: Kentucky 11, Indiana State 4
How do you think the Lexington region will play out? Let's hear your thoughts below in our comments section!