5 reasons why Alabama could stop Dan Hurley's UConn from winning back-to-back national championships
Alabama has its hands full. Once celebration turned to preparation, a certain reality had to set it. Yes, the Tide are making their first Final Four appearance, but their task is somewhere beyond tall.
The huskies-football" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-is-sponsored="false">UConn Huskies are the defending champions. They're also the favorites. Alabama is an 11 1/2 point underdog, but they're far from hopeless. The Tide themselves were a No. 4 seed.
They're the top offensive team in the nation (90.6 points per game). Two games ago, Alabama bested No. 1 seed North Caroilna as a substantial underdog. But how can Alabama pull this off? Here are five reasons why the Tide could shock the world and UConn.
Five reasons why Alabama could upset UConn
#5 The Tide can shoot the 3-pointer
SInce its introduction in college basketball in 1987, the 3-point shot has been a great equalizer.
Upsets that were previously impossible became possible. Alabama, it just so happens, loves the 3-point shot. The Tide average 11.2 3-pointers per game, which is the second-highest total in the nation.
Seven of Bama's top eight players are legitimate 3-point threats. Four of the eight are shooting better than 39% from the 3-point range. When Alabama hits a dozen or more 3-pointers, the Tide are 15-1.
The Tide hit 16 3-pointers in their Elite Eight victory over Clemson. They could work up a dozen 3-pointers again.
#4 Alabama is competitive on the glass
UConn averages a +8.8 rebound per game margin over opponents. But the Tide, ranked 18th in the nation in rebounds per game, is a competent team on the glass. North Carolina outrebounded Alabama in their Sweet 16 game, but only by a single rebound.
When UConn claims less than 54% of the total rebounds in a game, it's just 10-3. Meanwhile, when Alabama gets 53% of the total rebounds, it's 16-1. A meager advantage on the backboard could certainly increase Alabama's chances, and it's not an unlikely proposition.
#3 Mark Sears could carry Alabama to victory
There's a common trend in UConn's three losses. Against Kansas, Kevin McCullar had 21 points. Against Seton Hall, Kadary Richmond had 23 points. Against Creighton, Steven Ashworth had 20 points. Alabama guard Mark Sears fits the mold of UConn slayer very well.
In his previous four NCAA Tournament games, Sears has scored 30, 26, 18 and 23 points. If the Tide can keep the All-American playing at his current levels, it could go a long way toward making UConn a more beatable foe.
#2 Pace could help Alabama
Because of Alabama's high-scoring ways and penchant for defenses lapses, there's a belief that Alabama needs to play fast to outlast UConn. But it's simply not true. Alabama's at its worst at a high tempo. When it plays at a pace of 80+ possessions per game, it goes just 4-5.
However, while playing at a pace of fewer than 70 possessions per game, the Tide are 3-0. Meanwhile, UConn struggles with a slow pace. All three UConn losses came in games where they played at a pace of less than 63 possessions per game.
The NCAA Tournament tends toward a slow pace anyway. UConn's games have gone at a pace of 69, 64, 63 and 71 possessions per game. Since Alabama's first-round win, the Tide have settled in at 73, 74 and 72 possessions per game. The pace of the game could factor in Alabama's favor.
#1 The pressure on UConn is real
There's pressure, and then there's Final Four pressure. UConn hasn't played a close game in the NCAA Tournament. The Huskies have simply steam-rolled every opponent. And when that pattern ends, it's a fair criticism that UConn might not know how to react.
In 1991, UNLV was undefeated and was a massive semifinal favorite over a Duke team it had blasted by 30 in the previous NCAA Tournament.
Similarly, in 2015, Kentucky was undefeated and not used to many close games. March pressure caused both teams to tighten up down the stretch and allowed the underdog the freedom to pull out a surprise victory.
While UConn isn't undefeated, it's a massive favorite and hasn't been tested in a close game. Can Alabama make the Huskies uncomfortable and get them into a spot where upset lightning can strike?