5 reasons why Hubert Davis' UNC will not win 2024 March Madness
March Madness and UNC seem to go hand-in-hand. Whether it's Dean Smith, Roy Williams, or current coach Hubert Davis, the Tar Heels are generally in March Madness to win. But this particular group of Tar Heels isn't up for the task. Despite losing in the ACC Tournament, Carolina backed into the final No. 1 seed.
This particular North Carolina team is certainly talented enough. Davis and Bacot are All-American level players and Harrison Ingram was an excellent pickup. But Carolina's basketball history is littered with stories of highly regarded UNC teams that came up short in the end. North Carolina has an NCAA record 21 Final Four appearances but has won "just" six national titles.
For that matter, yes, Michael Jordan won an NCAA title at Carolina. Perhaps more amazing is that he didn't win a title in two other seasons. While Roy Williams managed more consistent NCAA Tournament success than his predecessors, North Carolina is far from a March certainty.
Here's exactly why Carolina will come up short.
5 Reasons why Hubert Davis' UNC will not win 2024 March Madness
1. Too much RJ Davis doesn't help.
Carolina's best player is All-American guard RJ Davis. With 21.4 points per game and 110 3-pointers made, Davis is an elite scorer. He's experienced, cool under pressure, and usually delivers for the Tar Heels. The problem is that frankly, the Heels will lean on Davis too much.
Despite his scoring skills, Davis's best games are often Carolina's worst. Davis has topped 25 points nine times this season. UNC is just 5-4 in those games. That includes a 30-point outburst in the ACC Tournament against NC State (a loss). It also includes 28 points against Georgia Tech and 27 points against Kentucky (both losses).
Another way to notice this trend is that when Davis takes 20 shots in a game, UNC is 2-4 this season. On the other hand, if Davis has less than 18 points in a game, UNC is unbeaten this year. That initially seems contradictory, but it's just a reflection of leaning too hard on the star.
2. No depth for Tar Heels
In fairness, it's not just Davis that Carolina leans on for too much. The same could be said of any of UNC's starters. North Carolina has only seven players who top 8.5 minutes per game. That lack of depth can be critical with a two-game-in-48-hours setup like the NCAA Tournament.
Depth can show up for big man Armando Bacot. He's fouled out of two games this year and finished nine other games with four fouls. Incidentally, when Bacot gets four fouls, UNC is just 6-5 on the year. It's again indicative of a team that relies too much on superb games from a few players. Foul trouble could bury UNC in March Madness.
3. The Tar Heels can be beaten on the glass.
A single key to beating UNC is probably keeping them from ruling the backboard. Carolina in general is an excellent rebounding team, grabbing 41.2 boards per game, 7th in the nation. They allow opponents just 33.4 rebounds per game. But when those trends don't go Carolina's way, the results are ugly.
In the four games this season when Carolina didn't top 30 rebounds, UNC was just 1-3. Those games were against Syracuse, UConn, NC State, and Kentucky. But likewise, when UNC's opponent gets 35 rebounds (and remember, they average 33.4), Carolina is 1-4. That's the same four games as above and then another against Clemson.
4. Poor close game performance
Despite a 28-7 record, Carolina is just 3-4 in games decided by six points or less. Two of those wins came over a horrendous Miami team. Meanwhile, Carolina lost close games to the likes of Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Villanova. It's simply unrealistic to expect to sprint through the NCAA Tournament by winning six easy games. Particularly in 2024, parity is very much a part of the NCAA Tournament.
5. Cadeau can go south
Point guard Elliot Cadeau is the hard part of North Carolina's team to figure out. A talented freshman, Cadeau is averaging 7.3 ppg and 4.1 assists per game but has struggled with consistency. It hasn't helped that he's shooting just 18% from 3-point range, giving defenses free rein to sag off him.
In Carolina's losses, Cadeau has been pretty much awful. He averages just 4.4 ppg in those games and shoots 34%. It's probably not a great sign for Carolina that he also has 10 points on 4-for-19 shooting in his last three games. Cadeau could be a big part of the Tar Heels' downfall.