5 reasons why Hunter Dickinson won't win the NCAAB championship with Kansas
Preseason No. 1 Kansas and All-American Hunter Dickinson felt certain to be March Madness darlings. Dickinson not only dominated college basketball early in the season, he did it with an attitude he hadn't shown at Michigan. Kansas hung around the top echelon of college basketball, opening 2024 with a No. 2 AP poll ranking.
But a funny thing happened on the way to certainty. Dickinson got banged up, and Kansas got cold. The Jayhawks (22-10) come into the NCAA Tournament having lost four of their last five games. KU has fallen to No. 17 in the AP poll and got a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament after ending their dominant run in the Big 12.
While March Madness is a second chance, here's why KU won't get it going this time.
5 reasons why Hunter Dickinson won't win the NCAA Tournament with Kansas
#1, Hunter Dickinson isn't healthy (and neither is Kevin McCullar Jr.)
Dickinson has missed just one game, the Jayhawks' Big 12 Tournament loss to Cincinnati. But he also hasn't played like himself in a while. Dickinson averaged 19.0 ppg and shot 57% in January. In February, he averaged 16.9 ppg and shot 46%. In March, he's averaging 15.3 ppg. Dickinson battled knee injuries earlier in the year and separated his shoulder in the regular season finale.
Kansas needs Dickinson (and fellow standout Kevin McCullar Jr.) raring to go. Not only because they're Kansas's top two players, but for other reasons ...
#2, Kansas has no depth
If Hunter Dickinson can't play or is limited in the NCAA Tournament, Kansas isn't prepared to just bring in the next player. KU has just seven players who average more than 7.5 minutes per game. Kansas's first five players account for 82% of its scoring. There's nobody ready to go in Hunter Dickinson's place.
Additionally, Kansas just announced that Kevin McCullar Jr. will be out for at least the first round of the tournament. So, everything said above is even more true.
#3, Samford is a tough first-round matchup for Kansas
Aside from extrinsic issues, Kansas got a brutal NCAA Tournament draw. Samford (29-5) is something of a sleeping giant. The Bulldogs are a high-scoring team (85.0 ppg) that shoots 3-pointers well (39.3%, No. 7 in the NCAA) and forces lots of turnovers (16.6 turnovers per game for opponents).
Meanwhile, Kansas has a real issue with defending the 3-point shot. When opponents shoot 34% or better from 3-point range, Kansas is just 7-9. Samford hit 34% or better in 24 of its 34 games.
Meanwhile, if Kansas wins that game, they get either a very competent, 18th-ranked Gonzaga team (25-7) or a dangerous McNeese State squad. McNeese (30-3) is one of the best defensive teams in the NCAA Tournament field, and if the Jayhawks can outscore Samford, they might be stuck having to try to grind out a win over McNeese next.
#4, The offense isn't good enough
One of the worst-kept secrets in March Madness is the role of KenPom offensive and defensive ratings. Simply put, the statistical wizards who produce the stat have indicated that winning the NCAA title basically requires a top 21 offense and a top 31 defense. Since 2001, every NCAA title winner except one had a top 21 offense. That over 95% rate of success seems to carry significance.
That's bad news for Kansas, whose offense is ranked 65th. Incidentally, the Jayhawks defense ranks 10th, so that would be well within the zone of necessary defensive competency. It's the offense. For a team that failed to score 70 points in six of its most recent nine games, that seems accurate.
#5, Kansas won't win because Purdue will
There's no particularly good matchup for the Jayhawks across the line of potential regional favorites. Houston dissected Kansas without seeming to break a sweat in the regular season finale. UConn is playing the best basketball in the nation. North Carolina might be the exception. If the Jayhawks were allowed to choose the No. 1 seed for their region, they probably would have taken the Tar Heels.
But, of course, Kansas didn't pick. They got third-ranked Purdue (29-4), which has center Zach Edey, probably the best player in college basketball. And remember Kansas's struggles when the opponent shoots well from 3-point range? Purdue's 40.8% 3-point shooting is second nationally, trailing only Kentucky.
Purdue is a horrific matchup for Kansas, and there goes hopes of getting out of the region.