Can Purdue beat UConn? Predicting the result of 2024 NCAA men's national championship game
Perhaps the two best teams in college basketball, UConn and Purdue, will face off tonight to decide the 2024 NCAA title. Both teams have spent the entire season among the top teams in the sport. Both teams are unusually strong and have deep squads. But the Huskies are a solid favorite, and Purdue will have an uphill climb to win.
At 34-4, Purdue very much earned the No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region. Purdue's only losses on the year were at Northwestern, at Nebraska, at Ohio State and in the Big Ten semifinals to Wisconsin. Two of the four losses came in overtime. The Boilermakers have blazed through the NCAA Tournament with only their Regional Final win over Tennessee being close, 72-66.
The Huskies roll in at 36-3. Their losses came at Kansas, at Seton Hall and at Creighton. UConn has won its last 12 games, with none of the wins by less than seven points. In the NCAA Tournament, UConn's closest game was their 14-point semifinal victory over Alabama.
Breaking down Purdue and UConn's Strengths and Weaknesses
Purdue's 82.9 points per game is 14th best in the nation. Their 40.6% success rate on 3-point shots is second nationally. In addition to being great offensively, the Boilermakers outrebound opponents by 11.7 boards per game.
Much of Purdue's success is due to All-American center Zach Edey. Edey, who just won his second consecutive Naismith Award as the nation's top player, scores 24.9 ppg and grabs 12.2 rpg. He is well completed by guard Braden Smith (12.0 ppg, 7.5 assists per game, 43.0% 3-point shooting). Lance Jones is the offensive glue who can get to the rim or shoot the 3-pointer (11.9 ppg).
Purdue plays a short rotation, with only eight players averaging double-digit minutes. Turnovers and poor shooting can doom Purdue. In each of their losses, they had at least 13 turnovers and shot worse than 45.2%.
UConn lacks any obvious flaws. The Huskies are excellent offensively (81.6 ppg, 21st nationally) and defensively (63.5 ppg allowed, 10th nationally). They're fifth in the nation in shooting (49.8%) and seventh in limiting opposing shooters (39.1%). They average 8.7 rebounds more than opponents and only commit 9.6 turnovers per game.
Their personnel is outstanding. UConn has five players averaging 11.0 ppg or better. Tristen Newton is a multi-tool guard while Cam Spencer is a shooter. Donovan Clingan is a massive center. Freshman Stephon Castle is talented and forward Alex Karaban is just a glue player who can do anything.
The Huskies only play eight players in their normal rotation. Several are not brilliant 3-point threats. On the three occasional all-season, when opponents shoot over 47.2%, all three opponents won. But that is, of course, easier said than done.
Purdue vs UConn prediction and odds to win
The Huskies are a 6.5-point favorite. The moneyline on UConn is -300, while the moneyline on Purdue is +240. The game's over/under is 144.5.
The biggest key to this game is Zach Edey. Donovan Clingan has had a solid NCAA Tournament but hasn't faced a center like the 7-foot-4 Edey. If Edey can get Clingan into foul trouble, then Purdue can exploit UConn's lack of other interior size for quality shots.
The Boilermakers need to shoot around 50.0% to win this game and hit a decent number of 3-point shots. The Huskies defense is fierce, but if Edey gets hot, the threat of his inside game can create interior looks. That's Purdue's recipe for victory. A big game for Edey becomes the monster tide that raises all boats for Purdue.
Purdue 78, UConn 73
Prediction: Purdue (+6.5, +240, over 144.5)
How to Watch Purdue vs UConn
The game will be broadcast on TBS. The NCAA will stream on its March Madness website, and TV subscribers can watch on the above channel. Tipoff is set for 9:20 p.m. ET.
Broadcasters will be Ian Eagle, Bill Raftery and Grant Hill, with Tracy Wolfson as sideline reporter.
Can Purdue win its first-ever NCAA title with one final upset or will Dan Hurley's Huskies become the first back-to-back NCAA winner since Florida in 2006 and 2007?