How many times has a 14 seed beat a 3 seed? Exploring the odds and probabilities of the March Madness stunners

The odds of a 14 seed beating 3 seed are not rare but are nonetheless exciting. Since the NCAA expanded to a 64-team bracket in 1985, there have been 22 such instances. Among them, only two 14 seeds have advanced past the second round: Cleveland State (1986) and Chattanooga (1997).

In 1986, two teams put up big upsets for a No. 3 team. Cleveland State (vs Indiana) and Arkansas Little Rock (vs Notre Dame) pulled off the wins. Since then, almost every year, one No. 14 team won against a No. 3, until 1992.

It resumed once again in 1995 with Old Dominion beating Villanova and Weber State handing Michigan State a close seven-point loss. The only other time two No. 14 teams won in the same year was in 2015 when UAB beat Iowa State 60-59 and Georgia State trumped Baylor 57-56.

With March Madness 2024 less than a month away, let's take a look at some of the recent and iconic 14 seed beating 3 seed instances.

#1 (14 seed) Northwestern State vs Iowa (64-63) - 2006

From the start, No. 3 Hawkeyes maintained a steady lead, with a few fumbles in the first half. They pulled themselves together in the second half, but the Demons' Jermaine Wallace took the spotlight and made a highlight reel-worthy shot.

With just a spilt second left, Wallace's fadeaway 3-pointer sealed the game in Northwestern's favor, marking the second straight first-round loss for Iowa.

"I actually saw it go in through the back of the glass. I can't believe this," Wallace said.

"I'd like to say I had it all drawn up, but we were just trying to get the guys in the game who could create havoc on defense and score on offense," said Northwestern State coach Mike McConathy.

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#2 (14 seed) Georgia State vs Baylor (57-56) - 2015

While the Bears entered the game as the obvious favorites, no one could have predicted this outcome.

Baylor maintained a healthy lead for most of the game, but Georgia State quickly caught up. RJ Hunter made 12 of his 16 points in the last two and a half minutes. His 3-pointer with 2.7 seconds gave the Panthers the decisive lead.

However, the biggest talking point of the game was when Hunter's father and GSU coach Ron Hunter fell off his chair, literally, after his sons's game-winning shot.

"It was a great game, but I'm not going to coach. I'm going to be Dad right now. This is my son. Proud of him. ... I haven't been able to do that for three years," Hunter said.

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#3 (14 seed) Abilene Christian vs Texas (53-52) - 2021

No. 3 Texas was a Final Four contender, but Abilene Christian stunned them. The win did not come off of a hot-shooting offense, though, as the Wildcats were only 3-for-18 from the 3-point range.

However, Abilene Christian executed some great plays, outrebounding Texas 39-32 and forcing them into a season-high 23 turnovers.

“We just beat the University of Texas. Little old Abilene Christian out in West Texas built a program that went toe-to-toe with the University of Texas. It’s an incredible story. It’s what March is about,” ACU coach Joe Golding said.

Now, as teams prepare for the 2024 March Madness, who are your favorite underdogs? Let's know in the comment section.

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