March Madness 2025: Top 3 reasons why Cooper Flagg's Duke will fall short of a National title
No. 1 Duke and superstar Cooper Flagg are riding high. Duke is currently the favorite to win the NCAA Tournament... but don't count on it. The Blue Devils are top-ranked and have had an impressive season. But in the one-and-done NCAA Tournament, there are still plenty of imposing teams capable of taking down Duke. Here are three reasons that Duke will come up short.
3 reasons Duke won't win the NCAA title
#1. Lack of regular-season competition
First things first - the ACC was awful this season. The league was once the superpower of college basketball and now, the ACC is hoping to get a fourth team in the NCAA Tournament field. The league just didn't hold up, particularly in comparison to the SEC or Big Ten.
Consider No. 2 ACC seed Louisville. The Cardinals were 18-2 in the ACC, losing only to Duke and Georgia Tech. The Cardinals went 0-4 against SEC teams.
Duke has seen very little tough competition, particularly compared to teams like Auburn or Houston which played a bevy of tough competition. Trying to win six quality games in a row is something Duke hasn't really done this season. The NCAA Tournament is a bad place to try to learn.
#2. The level of freshman significance on the roster
Yes, freshmen can win NCAA titles but, particularly in the transfer portal era, they usually don't. Flagg and wing Kon Knueppel are Duke's top two scorers and are freshmen. Khaman Malauch and Isaiah Evans are also freshmen. Over 61% of Duke's points this season were scored by freshmen.
The Blue Devils are leaning too hard on inexperienced players and against a bevy of veteran opposition, Duke's freshmen will have some struggles. March is often about responding to adversity. These young players haven't seen much, and it's more than fair to wonder how they will react when they do.
#3. The target of being No. 1
The top team in the nation hits March with a big target on its back. Of course, UConn entered last year's NCAA Tournament as No. 1 overall and won. But they weren't No. 1 until the week before the Tournament. The last team to carry a significant portion of the season as No. 1 and win the Tournament was Kentucky in 2012.
The last one before that Kentucky team? Duke in 2001. Like that UConn team, Duke has just become No. 1 before the Tournament. But the point is that the clear top team, rather than having a March advantage, just becomes a target for plucky underdogs. Teams that are No. 2 (six titles in 2000s) or No. 3 (four titles in 2000s) actually have better chances at victory.
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