Men's Final Four upset prediction: Which teams will likely make the championship game in March Madness 2024?
The Final Four is set, and it's time to talk upsets. The problem is that it's going to be very difficult to see any semifinal upsets.
huskies-football" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-is-sponsored="false">UConn and Purdue were the clear two top teams in the nation, and they face decided underdogs in No. 4 seed Alabama and No. 11 seed wolfpack-football" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-is-sponsored="false">NC State respectively. But it's time for a deep dive into the possibilities of one or both underdogs pulling off an April Final Four surprise on Saturday.
Men's FInal Four upset prediction
No. 11 seed NC State vs. No. 1 seed Purdue
Odds: Purdue -9.5 (-460)
It doesn't take a ton of imagination to see why Purdue is a hefty favorite. The Boilermakers are 33-4, entered the Tournament ranked No. 3 in the nation and have handled everything thrown at them.
In their 72-66 victory over Tennessee, National Player of the Year Zach Edey had 40 points and 16 rebounds as Purdue outrebounded Tennessee by 21 on the glass.
The best thing to be said for NC State is that the Wolfpack have turned into a different team in the post-season. They limped into the postseason at 17-14 but have now won nine games in a row.
A second win over Duke in 17 days was impressive. DJ Burns and DJ Horne combined for 49 points in the 76-64 victory. The Wolfpack held Duke to 32% shooting.
State's defensive work has been a key to its renaissance. In its last six games, NC State hasn't allowed any opponent to shoot better than 38.7%. During the said span, the Wolfpack haven't shot below 45.3%. That's a winning recipe, to be sure.
The Wolkfpack will give up half a foot of height to Edey. They will need another poor shooting performance from their opponents to have a shot. If State could get Edey in foul trouble, they'd have a puncher's chance.
Will that be enough to pick the Final Four upset? Well, suffice to say that State has the better chance at the upset among the two underdogs. Picking it though?
Confidence chance of upset: 20%.
No. 4 seed Alabama vs. No. 1 seed UConn
Odds: UConn -11.5 (-800)
For the second NCAA Tournament in a row, the Huskies aren't even being challenged.
Dan Hurley's team has a little bit of everything and is playing like the clear top team in the country. At 35-3, UConn is a dynamo. They're fifth in the nation in shooting percentage (49.8%) and sixth in shooting percentage defense (39.0%).
In dismantling Illinois, UConn got double-doubles from Cam Spencer and Donovan Clingan. They also held the Illini to 25% shooting for the game. They've been a juggenaut heading into Final Four play.
Alabama has been very impressive. For the second straight game, they put up 89 points to best solid ACC competition. The Tide shot 16-for-36 from the 3-point range and held Clemson to 8 for 26. They also outrebounded the TIgers by 11 boards.
That could be an essential component of Alabama's success. Ten times this season, the Tide grabbed 40 rebounds in a game. They're 9-1 when doing so, and three of those nine are NCAA Tournament victories. Alabama's defenive woes may have just been thinly disguised rebounding issues. If so, consider them solved.
Mark Sears is Alabama's top weapon, but the Tide have nearly as many scorers as UConn, with reserve Jarin Stevenson contributing 19 points in the Elite Eight. The real question is can anybody even dent UConn's confidence. If Alabama can hang around, they will have a chance to pull the Final Four upset, but that's a big if.
Confidence chance of upset: 10%.