MWC March Madness Bracket Predictions: Projecting Bracketology for Teams
The MWC isn't just the best mid-major. In the 2024 NCAA Tournament, the league will top a couple of alleged Power Five conference sides. With six projected NCAA berths going to MWC teams, the league has had an outstanding 2024 season. It would only figure that things will continue along that path in the NCAA Tournament.
The MWC Tournament has been a typical free-for-all of the 2024 postseason. The top four seeds have all been defeated, but three are likely bound for the NCAA Tournament anyway. Saturday's final between San Diego State and the winner of Colorado State and New Mexico might also involve two teams set for NCAA bids.
MWC March Madness Bracket Predictions
Again, the league tournament might not have any import. The loser of Colorado State and New Mexico might have a suspenseful Selection Sunday. The winner of that game, as with fellow finalist San Diego State is already assured its NCAA Tournament spot.
Here's a likely seeding breakdown for the six MWC teams that will likely all end up in the NCAA field.
No. 5 seed prediction
San Diego State
The Aztecs (23-9) look like a likely No. 5 seed. Winning the league tournament can't hurt, and could even leap the Aztecs to No. 4. BracketMatrix projects San Diego State as the third No. 5 seed, although individual brackets list SDSU from No. 4 to No. 7 seeds.
The Aztecs boast a No. 20 NET ranking, just one quad 2 loss and no losses below that mark. Forward Jadeon Ledee is a must-see talent (20.9 points per game, 8.5 rebounds per game). The league title game might bump SDSU up or down a notch, but they should be around No. 5.
No. 6 seed prediction
Utah State
The MWC top seed lost a semifinal matchup to San Diego State. The Aggies (27-6) hold a No. 30 NET ranking. Utah State has just one quad 2 loss and no losses from lower quads. Utah State is seventh in the nation in overall shooting (49.6%) and third in 3-point defense (28.4%).
The Aggies are slated as the top No. 6 seed on BracketMatrix. There's such more variability in their seeding than San Diego State, with a wide split of potential seeds between No. 4 and No. 7.
No. 7 seed prediction
Nevada
The Wolfpack had a tough loss to Colorado State on Thursday. Still, Nevada has gone 26-7 and is ranked No. 34 in the NET. Nevada is great at getting to the foul line (top eight nationally in free throws made and attempted per game). They have a superb backcourt with Jarod Lucas (17.8 ppg) and Kenan Blackshear (15.1 ppg).
BracketMatrix forecasts Nevada as the top No. 7 seed. Projections from No. 5 to No. 8 are noted, but with the early loss, Nevada probably does ultimately slide into the No. 7 slot.
Predicted No. 8 seeds
Boise State
Boise fell to New Mexico Thursday in quarterfinal play. At 22-10, Boise is 27th in NET rankings. A 6-6 record against quad 1 foes makes even a quad 3 loss look palatable overall. Boise has been excellent at keeping foes off the offensive glass, giving up just 7.2 offensive rebounds per game (second-best in the nation).
The Broncos are slated into the second No. 8 slot by BM. Seed projections from No. 7 to No. 10 are noted. Still, even early tournament loss aside, all 113 projected brackets include Boise. No. 8 is probably a safe spot for them.
Colorado State
Colorado State is 24-9, heading into Friday night's MWC semifinal with New Mexico. The team is included in all 113 projected BM brackets. Point guard Isaiah Stevens is a great multi-faceted player (16.6 ppg, 7.1 apg). CSU holds a No. 31 NET ranking, including a 7-6 record in quad 1 games.
CSU is listed as a third No. 8 seed. If they win the league, they jump to a No. 7. A loss to New Mexico might well slide the Rams into the No. 9 slot. Still, their spot should be relatively safe, although a few projections might include CSU for a First Four game.
No. 11 seed prediction
New Mexico
The Lobos are sitting right on the NCAA bubble heading into Friday night's MWC semifinal with Colorado State. This is despite a 24-9 record and a No. 23 NET ranking. A quad 4 loss probably bumps the Lobos down a couple of spots even there.
As a projected No. 11 seed, New Mexico is included in just 75 of 113 brackets at BracketMatrix. That places them as the last team in the NCAA field and a likely First Four candidate.