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Will TCU make the March madness 2024? Breaking down Horned Frogs' NCAA tournament odds

Coach Jamie Dixon and the TCU Horned Frogs look like a probable NCAA Tournament team, but one with work to do. Most bracket predictions have TCU squarely in the field. But the Horned Frogs (18-7, 7-5 in the Big 12) can't exactly start breathing a sigh of relief or planning for March Madness just yet.

Will TCU make the 2024 NCAA Tournament?

Probably so. With wins over Houston, Baylor and Texas Tech this year, TCU has probably done enough to be set in the field.

Upcoming games with Baylor and BYU could make this situation certain, whereas a loss at West Virginia could drop TCU toward the tournament bubble. They've got a good shot but aren't set in stone for the NCAA Tournament field.

TCU NCAA Tournament History

The Horned Frogs have never reached the Final Four, with a 1968 run to the Elite Eight being their deepest NCAA Tournament appearance. In fact, TCU hasn't returned to the Sweet 16 since then.

The Horned Frogs have only made three NCAA Tournament appearances in the 21st century. TCU is 7-10 all-time in the NCAA Tournament, and last season they lost to Gonzaga in the second round, 84-81.

TCU March Madness Odds

TCU's odds to win the 2024 NCAA title range from +5000 to +12500. The odds on a Final Four appearance for the Horned Frogs are +2500 to +2800.

Teamrankings.com puts TCU's NCAA Tournament chances at a surprisingly low 54.6%, but also indicates that the Horned Frogs' most likely seed is No. 6.

TCU Basketball Strengths

TCU's Emanuel Miller is working to reach the 2024 NCAA Tournament.
TCU's Emanuel Miller is working to reach the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

The Horned Frogs are a potent offensive team (81.5 points per game, 28th in the NCAA) that distributes the ball effectively (17.8 assists per game, 10th in the nation). TCU also has six players averaging 8.4 ppg or above.

Emanuel Miller is TCU's leader. The senior forward (16.1 ppg, 5.6 rpg) has 1,145 points in three years at TCU and has improved his once-inside-based game to 40.4% 3-point shooting accuracy.

Moreover, Miller has only failed to score in double figures just twice this year, in which he had eight and nine points, respectively.

TCU Basketball weaknesses

TCU doesn't have a ton of size, as none of their top seven scorers are over 6-foot-7. Due to that, the Horned Frogs have been vulnerable on the offensive glass. When opponents grab more than 10 offensive rebounds, TCU is just 2-4 (with one of those wins coming in triple overtime).

TCU also struggles with careful teams, going just 4-4 in games where the opponent has less than 14 turnovers.

Can TCU reach the NCAA tournament? If so, how will they fare? We'd love to hear from you in the comments section below.

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