3 biggest roadblocks for Sherrone Moore's Michigan to defend its natty in 2024 season
The Michigan Wolverines won the College Football Playoff National Championship back in January, picking up their first national title in the last quarter century. New head coach Sherrone Moore has since replaced Jim Harbaugh and Michigan will aim for a repeat. That said, history is not on the Wolverines' side. Georgia did win consecutive titles, but that feat is unique in the recent era of college football.
As the Wolverines prepare to open their title defense, some heavy reasons go against their possible success.
Here are the three biggest roadblocks in UM's attempt at a title repeat.
3 biggest roadblocks for Michigan, Sherrone Moore in repeat bid
#1. Too much new
Continuity is very much a dead word in college sports. With the transfer portal dominating the game, every team is pretty much constantly being rebuilt from within. That's sometimes a great thing for student-athletes and can make for some interesting competition. However, it's certainly not good for a team looking to repeat as champions.
That said, Michigan is a particularly extreme case. The Wolverines have a new coach, with Harbaugh departing to the NFL. They have a new quarterback, with JJ McCarthy also going in the 2024 NFL draft. They lost their leading rusher, their leading receiver, and their leaders in tackles, sacks and interceptions.
For comparison's sake, the 2021 Georgia Bulldogs pulled a repeat in part because of what they returned. The Bulldogs returned with their coach, quarterback, leading receiver and leader in sacks.
While there's probably no magic formula to repeat, having to rebuild virtually everything is far from ideal. It doesn't make it impossible for Michigan to repeat, but it certainly makes it less likely.
#2. Changes in CFP
The College Football Playoff has been a four-team battle since 2014. But that's all going to change in 2024. With a 12-team battle for the national title, the path to a title is now much more arduous.
Perhaps the best-case scenario for the Wolverines would be to win one of the top four seeds, in which case Michigan only has to play one additional game to win the CFP title. However, if the Wolverines are seeded No. 5 through 12, they'd have to win four games to claim the title.
In 10 years of the four-team setup, the No. 1 seed has won just four times. The No. 2 seed has won three more. In fact, 30% of CFPs with a two-game playoff ended with a team other than the top two winning. That level of parity is likely to increase even more with teams having to win three or four games to claim a title. Michigan's hopes of repeating seemingly took a hit just based on the CFP schedule.
#3. Ohio State's run game
The road to winning the Big Ten (and probably to a top four seed) runs through Ohio State. After losing eight in a row in the series, the Wolverines have won the last three. Michigan's victory has been pushed by a drastic edge in the running game. Michigan outrushed OSU 297-64 in 2021. The margin was 252-143 in 2022, and it was 156-107 in 2023.
The issue here is that Ohio State has certainly upgraded its ground approach. Not only did OSU return TreVeyon Henderson, but the Buckeyes added Ole Miss's Quinshon Judkins in the transfer portal. Ohio State has two of the probably half dozen top running backs in America, and it'll be tough for the Wolverines to rack up a big ground advantage.
Without a big ground advantage, the game with OSU is a much tougher proposition – which makes the Big Ten a tougher proposition – which in turn makes the title a much tougher proposition.
Do you think Sherrone Moore can win a national title in his first year at UM? Let us know your thoughts in the comments section below.