5 reasons why Mike Norvell's FSU won't win the national championship title in 2024
Mike Norvell and the Florida State Seminoles experienced a disappointing Week 0 loss to Georgia Tech. The good news for FSU is that in the era of a 12-team playoff, the loss isn't fatal to the 'Noles CFP hopes. But at the end of the day, it's the first sign that this team might not have the chops for a title this season. Aside from the Tech loss, here are five reasons why FSU will fall short of that goal.
5 reasons why Mike Norvell's FSU won't win the national championship in 2024
1. DJ Uiagalelei isn't a championship QB
There were questions throughout the offseason about the Seminoles hitching the offensive wagon to the well-traveled Uiagalelei. A highly-regarded recruit, Uiagalelei struggled at Clemson, although he turned in a decent 2022 season, before transferring to Oregon State for 2023.
Judging only from the box score, Uiagalelei was fine against Georgia Tech. The senior completed 19 for 27 passes for 193 yards and did not turn the ball over. But he has become a dink-and-dunk passer who won't be able to beat good teams with those safe and easy throws.
2. Ground game underperformance
In 2023, FSU averaged 150 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry. Without Trey Benson, FSU looked pretty bad on Saturday, managing 98 yards and 3.2 yards per carry. Aside from one 28-yard run by Lawrance Toafili, FSU never got the running game going. Last year, only Clemson, Florida, Miami, and Georgia held FSU under 100 rushing yards.
3. Run defense issues
FSU held opponents to 152 yards per game and 4.2 yards per carry in 2023, which is mediocre. But on Saturday, the team gave up 190 yards and 5.3 yards per carry to Tech. The losses of Tatum Bethune and Kalen DeLoach were noticable. Georgia Tech was 5 for 9 on third downs in the game, because FSU's run defense was soft.
4. The timing of this loss was disastrous
The overriding image of 2023 for FSU, despite a 13-0 regular season, despite probably earning a CFP spot, was humiliation. Everything that happened before the 63-3 humbling to Georgia seems to have disappeared. One thing the Noles didn't need was another loss to open 2024. Any thought that the finale of the 2023 season was a fluke flies right out the window.
5. FSU won't make it to 10-2
The wild hope of the expanded playoff format is that a 9-3 season could still send a team to the postseason. It could... in the SEC. The ACC has been a distant third behind the SEC and Big Ten, and Florida State's loss won't change that. It'll take a 10-2 season in the ACC to make the playoffs.
For a team that still has to play at Miami, at Notre Dame, and against Clemson, going 10-2 off of an 0-1 start feels like a pipe dream.
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